Empire $200k, on the bubble, play or not?

[lacky]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t9280)
UTG+1 (t2156)
MP1 (t7460)
MP2 (t19565)
MP3 (t3954)
CO (t5452)
Button (t10216)
Hero (t2018)
BB (t10225)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to t2000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero raises all-in t2018, BB calls t1018, CO calls t18.

Flop: (t4236) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t1500</font>, CO calls t1500.

Turn: (t7236) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
CO folds.

River: (t7236) 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t7236

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has Kh Jh (flush, king high).
Hero has Ac Ks (two pair, aces and eights).
Outcome: BB wins t7236. </font>

so, finished 61, 60 payed $800, never been in that situation before, need some advice.

Steve

[2005]

Well, the way you were playing before that hand, I thought you had at least KK. I think you have to decide whether you're playing for the money or to win. It seemed like you were playing for the money, so I think you probably should have folded. If you were playing for the win, you would have found a hand a while before that and not let yourself get that short. As it is, tough luck, work on your MTT game and you could be pretty good. This is a good place to learn.

Gavin

[lacky]

I went 40 or 50 hands with nothing better than Q6, 87, etc, so I had decided to just make the money rather than push crap, then hit the only decent hand I'd seen with horrible timing. Even the blind steal agianst u was with A6, then nothing even that good came. Should I have pushed with trash and hoped? I really didnt know so I was basically on the fence waiting for something decent for the last hour, then finally got it and prob should have mucked it. grrr

Steve

[Che]

Reason to fold: You've got to make the top 20 to double the $800 you're about to pick up by folding.

Reason to call: Win this and you've got 2/3 of the average stack so one more big hand will put you in contention for the whole enchilada.

So, if you don't mind busting out 40% of the time and missing out on a sure $800, then play. Otherwise, fold.

Later,
Che

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I went 40 or 50 hands with nothing better than Q6, 87, etc, so I had decided to just make the money rather than push crap,

[/ QUOTE ]

If the 87 was suited, it would have been a good hand for pushing from LP with around 5 BB's (i.e. when you still had folding equity).

[lacky]

well, I know playing for the win at all times is correct (or at least I think I know that, that could be wrong too I guess) If I had had the same hand and busted 70th i wouldn't think twice about it, 61 has me pissed beyond any normal amount i should be.

I'm also running a good fever right now so I may not be entirely sane /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Steve

[lacky]

I was utg+1, still though about it, but too many active big stacks behind me I decided.

[MicroBob]

I don't have any brilliant insights here....but I can safely say that I would have laid this down.

I'm operating under the assumption that were several shorter stacks than yours that were closer to being blinded-out.


If 60th only pays $200-$300 instead of $800 then I'm probably playing it.

But 60th pays way more than $200....and the pay-out structure is pretty flat from 60th through 10th so I think you need to lay it down.

60th pays $800.....20th pays $1700 (as does 11th).


Average stack is at $8688 right now. (530,000 / 61).

I think for purposes of this analysis we can assume that if you fold you have a 100% chance of winning $800.
If you want to be conservative you can knock it down to 95% or so.


Lets assume you are a 60% favorite if you call based on the range of hands that CO could have (he might have a pair afterall) as well as the chances that BB will correctly call much of the time with a wide range of hands (although he might fold too of course).


I have no idea if 60% is correct or not....but BB should be calling with a wide-range of hands here...and if you are up against KQ and JT or perhaps 77 and J9s or something then are hardly a lock (but obviously have a pretty good chance).


So...because the BB is likely going to play we assume 60% chance.
Meaning you have a 40% chance of getting zilch.


In the situation where you win the hand you are up to around T6000.

T6000 is 1.1% of the total chips out there where as the 'average' stack is close to 2%.
You're probably around 40th place in chips out of 60 at this point.

If you double-up here then I estimate your chances as follows:
$800 - 100%
$900 - 75%
$1100 - 50%
etc.

you have barely better than a 1.1% chance of taking the top prize (which is your current stack-size). I think you are a bit better than 1.1% because I estimate that you are a stronger player than a majority of the field.


Obviously if you fold here it's not exactly throwing in the towel for the rest of the tourney. You'll still get a chance to double-up somewhere in there (although not likely as good as AK)

If you fold the AK:
$800 - 95%-100%
$900 - 40% (a rough estimate of you successfully doubling-up on a future hand AND still lasting until 50th place)
$1100 - 20%-25%
And your chances of taking the whole thing are about 1% or less.


I'm not certain of the accuracy of my numbers or whether I'm doing this correctly or not...and obviously you don't have time to go through all of this in your head when faced iwth the decision.


but I think that, in general, the numbers seem to support what my logic would be at the table for this hand:

a 100% chance for $800 here followed by still a slim chance of making significantly better money is a better play than:

a 60% chance for $800 followed by decently better chance of making significantly better money.


the difference between T2000 and T6000 is not exactly 'marginal' for making the 'significantly' better money.

It will definitely give you a better chance to finish anywhere from 20th through 50th....but the prizes there are just not high enough to make it worth it.


It does increase your chances of making it to 9th or better though.
Someone please point out to me where I am messing this up because I have a feeling I am not doing that correctly.

I tried doing more numbers where I looked at the average prize of making the final 5 as $23.8k and estimated a 10% chance of winning that if he hits the triple-up (would have 1.2% of the chips with 60 players left) but it all seems kind of screwy in my head right now because I'm tired.



Again....if 60th only pays $250 then I go ahead and go for it.
Also....if the scenario is 60th pays $800, but 50th pays $2000 then I'm much more likely to call here.


But in your situation you had a 40% chance perhaps of going away with nothing.....and tripling-up was more likely to just get you to $900 or $1100 or $1300 and wasn't going to be good enough in this situation for your chances of $30k or $48k (compared with the sure thing).


That's my admittedly weak-tight analysis.
Sorry it didn't work out for you.

But remember...you ARE having a reasonably good week regardless.



I welcome any comments pointing out how messed up my analysis is. I'm not exactly very good at this sort of stuff.

[lacky]

Sounds pretty on to me, only change is I was small blind so had 500 in already, so folding leaves me with 1500. there were at least 3 1bb or less stacks though, so i would say a fold puts me at 98%+ to make the money. Folding was the best move. I think that 2nd wednesday and having the chip lead at one point tonight messed with my thinking just enough to make me call. My actual thought as i pushed was "well, if I'm gonna have any chance in this thing I better play". I was still trying to win the thing in my mind when I had actually for all practical purposes already lost it.

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
I had actually for all practical purposes already lost it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Rethink this.

[lehighguy]

How you ended up in this situation is a better question. I'm betting your one of those stallers that sits around waiting for aces or something.

Tournament payouts are exponential, you should try to get to the final table where the big money is. Try to steal pots/blinds with marginal hands. Busting out in the low money is all the same for all intents and purposes.

Post some hands when your stack was big enough to actually play.

[lacky]

point takin. I went from 6500 to about 4400 with a pocket pair i had to fold after overs and fairly heavy betting. Then i got really lousy cards for several rounds. I pushed A6s to steal the blinds once, only other marginal hand i had was 87s from early, which I passed on. I definatly wasn't waiting for aces, but was hoping for a pair or high cards at some point.

So, I guess I need input, should I be pushing with Q6, J2, etc. (I also had an active big stack to my left, which made me hesitent to steal too weak)

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
How you ended up in this situation is a better question. I'm betting your one of those stallers that sits around waiting for aces or something.

Tournament payouts are exponential, you should try to get to the final table where the big money is. Try to steal pots/blinds with marginal hands. Busting out in the low money is all the same for all intents and purposes.

Post some hands when your stack was big enough to actually play.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, this post upsets me. It seems to start from the premise that I, being the expert that I am, will NEVER find myself in this situation. I'm sorry, but play enough poker you WILL find yourself here. Hell, play enough poker and you WILL be the first one to bust out in a 1500 man tourney.

Also, what is this feast or famine mentality? Why do we not trust that this individual arrived in this situation by playing excellent poker? You know, you can play well... and still lose. The post seems to suggest that the player should either have busted out long ago, or be amoung the chip leaders. Again, it doesn't always work like this.

I play a style of poker that will often find me amoung the chip leaders, but more often, I'll find myself being dragged along with the back of the pack going from blind steal to double up as the field dwindles from 1200, to 1000, to 800, to 700, to... well, maybe the point that our young friend finds himself (and I'm aware he's probably older than me).

Now, busting out in low money is earning a do-over plus a little extra for my time. When I'm looking at a chip stack equal to the one I started with, four hours into an online tourney, a do-over sounds pretty nice.

Now, don't get me wrong. I've once come back from 5 chips in an SNG to win it all - I'm not giving up on the top prize, but I'm not forgetting about the money I've already got in the pot. Sure, I'd rather have T4k than T2K, but I'd rather have $800 and T0K than T0k and $0.

Tournies are about aggression, risks, and fearlessness... but they are also about patience, discipline, restraint, sacrifice, and, yes, payouts.

I'd fold AA here.

I'll take $800 and a coin flip a few hands from now.

CSC

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
point takin. I went from 6500 to about 4400 with a pocket pair i had to fold after overs and fairly heavy betting. Then i got really lousy cards for several rounds. I pushed A6s to steal the blinds once, only other marginal hand i had was 87s from early, which I passed on. I definatly wasn't waiting for aces, but was hoping for a pair or high cards at some point.

So, I guess I need input, should I be pushing with Q6, J2, etc. (I also had an active big stack to my left, which made me hesitent to steal too weak)

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a personal tourney rule that says when my stack is btwn 4-6BB, I'm stealing from any position with simple hands like Q9s, 57s, JTo, etc. I try to stick with suiteds, and try to have some connectivity. The idea is that if I am called, I'll probably have two live cards plus a str8 draw and a flush draw possible. But if I'm MP3, Ace anything is good enough, and K8s looks pretty good. However, I'm folding if someone raised ahead of me and only calling their raises with premium hands.

When I get below 4BB, I'm accepting any offer of a coin flip. CO bets me all in on the button, I'm calling with pocket ducks or AT.

This rule is also accompanied by a "tighten up" rule that says btwn 10BB and 6BB, all-in is my only bet and I'm only doing so with premium hands and/or Choice position.

If I have 4BB, I'm hoping to double up with my Q9s and then catch KK the next hand and double up again. If I don't catch KK, I'm waiting another half hour until I have to give Q9s another go.

Just some advice from a rookie, it is well-thought out and often used, but I don't have the experience of others here.

CSC

[Paul2432]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to decide whether you're playing for the money or to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play to maximize EV. Sometimes that means hanging on for the money. Other times it means going for the win. It all depends on the situation.

I think MicroBob gave a nice analysis of the EV of the situation.

Paul

[Bernas]

It's not about having a hand. It's about having position. If it were folded to you in late position try stealing with any 2. You can't wait for a hand or the Blinds will eat away at your stack.

[lacky]

Well, after a little sleep on this, I can live with the decision I made. It might not be the most +EV, but at the time I still had the goal of winning the thing and it was clearly the right choice for that.

I think what had me so completely on tilt last night was just that I was giving the choice to make in the first place. After waiting for over an hour for any kind of decent hand I got dealt AK in the small blind on the same hand the blinds increased, and 2, 3 hands max before I would be in the money anyway.

But, what can ya do. The goddess of poker loves to play her jokes. Really I've won more than my share this month anyway and I'm sure I made the poor guy with 168 chips' day. I picture him bragging it up at the office and I feel a little better about it all.

Steve

[lacky]

good point. The player to my left had 4 to 6x my stack and was playing lots of hands. I think that intemidated me too much and I played less than i should have

[Bernas]

I would agree with you except the following suggests that he could have played a little better.

[ QUOTE ]
I went 40 or 50 hands with nothing better than Q6, 87, etc, so I had decided to just make the money rather than push crap, then hit the only decent hand I'd seen with horrible timing. Even the blind steal agianst u was with A6, then nothing even that good came. Should I have pushed with trash and hoped? I really didnt know so I was basically on the fence waiting for something decent for the last hour, then finally got it and prob should have mucked it. grrr

[/ QUOTE ]

If he went 40-50 hands without stealing, and waiting on premium hands at this point in the tourney then he let himself get into this position.

There was no need for the person to call him a staller though(unless he watched him play and he actually was stalling).

[Bernas]

[ QUOTE ]
good point. The player to my left had 4 to 6x my stack and was playing lots of hands. I think that intemidated me too much and I played less than i should have

[/ QUOTE ]

Now you know for next time. Still looks like you played well though.

[schwza]

one thing i'm surprised no one has pointed out is that hero can call, lose the hand, and still make the money if a shorter stack busts in the same hand. maybe not too likely b/c hero is pretty short, but possible - would be a good idea to keep an eye on the other uber-shorts. if one of them is all-in on the blind or something, i think it's a push.

otherwise, i think it's a fold. i thought it was a push at first, but there were good arguments for folding in the thread.

[2005]

I understand that sometimes you are going to play just to make the money. What I meant by this is that lacky's play was inconsistent. He was folding every hand when he had a chance to win chips, but when there was no fold equity and he was about to move past the blinds and almost be guaranteed a payday, he decided to call all in. There was seriously a guy with 186 chips in the tournament at this time. I have no problem with playing just to make the money and I've done it before when I was desperate like this, but his play was very inconsistent.

Gavin

[lehighguy]

Steal alot in late posistion if you can open all in. Almsot any two will do. Be aware of peoples stacks and styles. Remember, you want folds. Don't put someone all in if the blind is half thier stack cause they'll call. You need good reads on the blinds.

I'm not saying you don't end up in this situation, I'm saying that its a much less important situation. I hit a straight flush on the river at the Borgata yesterday. I could post a hand and we could debate the play, but I will never be in that situation again. Topics that come up alot but are tricky like value betting the river with top pair or raising on draws if you think you have fold equity are much more common and much more intellectually stimulating to discuss. I'm not being condescending, I'm just saying your +EV from discussing the more mundane things like having A2o in the CO with large blinds and a stack 4-5BB is much more important. He says he just threw them away, but maybe he shouldn't. A lot of tourney players get weak-tight around the money. I'm trying to open up a whole ew part of the game to him that he might not have considered.

[2005]

There was a guy with 186 chips and he wasnt all in this hand

Gavin

[Apathy]

I really would have folded this if I was in your spot, and if you wanted to go for the big money I would have pushed against one of 2005's steals around the bubble against you /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I think one time you said you had A6 or something, if you were playing for first I think that might have been a good spot for your money (close though).

The thing is that a triple up really didn't ensure you much more money, and came with quite a bit of risk. If I was more certain that the money was going in heads up rather then against two opponents I would've pushed but in the situation you were in you had to be pretty sure you were getting two callers. Actually I'm pretty surprised they didn't check it down with the hands they had.

[b0000000000m]

It looks like folding is the right play here, given the very flat payout structure after the initial big payoff for making the money.

What if you had JJ instead? Or TT?

These seem much more difficult than AK.

[b0000000000m]

My instinct is to play JJ and QQ, but ditch TT. I feel somewhat open to being convinced I'm wrong about JJ, but QQ seems to be not that difficult.

[2005]

well, apathy, the A6 hand would have been a terrible spot. I would have been forced to call with my hand(KJ) and he was giving me something like 3.5-1 in a spot where I'm not going to be worse than a 3-2 dog. In fact, I am going to post the hand where you pushed w/ AJ b/c I think that was a big mistake, but we'll see what the rest of the posters think.

Gavin

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
well, apathy, the A6 hand would have been a terrible spot. I would have been forced to call with my hand(KJ) and he was giving me something like 3.5-1 in a spot where I'm not going to be worse than a 3-2 dog. In fact, I am going to post the hand where you pushed w/ AJ b/c I think that was a big mistake, but we'll see what the rest of the posters think.

Gavin

[/ QUOTE ]

I think we have seperate definitions of the word *terrible* getting your money in as a slight favourite when 50 people away from real money is not *terrible*. I agree that it is not a push I was just pointing out an earlier spot where he could have considered gambling rather then the later one that was chosen.

[lacky]

minor detail, but I pushed with A6s and stole "2005"'s BB, wasn't the other way around. That was the best hand I saw before or after for over about 60 to 70 mins and I did push it.

I looked back and I did fold pocket 3's in the BB to a raiser and a caller, figuring calling all-in for a 3 way pot with 33 was pretty slim. The rest was the Q6, J2, 75 type crap I discribed. I guess I should pick a point beyond which I refuse to drop and push anything before the blinds hit. In sng's I generaly get to this point about 4 to 5x the BB, but am rarely having to push past a full table.

Any guidelines for that?

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
minor detail, but I pushed with A6s and stole "2005"'s BB, wasn't the other way around. That was the best hand I saw before or after for over about 60 to 70 mins and I did push it.

I looked back and I did fold pocket 3's in the BB to a raiser and a caller, figuring calling all-in for a 3 way pot with 33 was pretty slim. The rest was the Q6, J2, 75 type crap I discribed. I guess I should pick a point beyond which I refuse to drop and push anything before the blinds hit. In sng's I generaly get to this point about 4 to 5x the BB, but am rarely having to push past a full table.

Any guidelines for that?

[/ QUOTE ]


Here is the hand I was referring to.


***** Hand History for Game 1660599000 *****
800/1600 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 9957595) - Mon Feb 28 00:37:36 EST 2005
Table $200,000 Guaranteed(233657) Table 6 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: benny_v (9280)
Seat 2: dreep111 (5048)
Seat 3: shad24 (2956)
Seat 4: Violated (7860)
Seat 5: imrunninbad (12917)
Seat 6: studpool (3954)
Seat 7: silverdan (4252)
Seat 8: blaydzfsteel (10616)
Seat 9: ifusayso (4018)
Seat 10: thebirdman84 (9425)
blaydzfsteel posts small blind (400)
ifusayso posts big blind (800)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to blaydzfsteel [ 3d, 6c ]
thebirdman84 folds.
benny_v folds.
dreep111 folds.
shad24 folds.
Violated folds.
imrunninbad raises (2300) to 2300
studpool folds.
silverdan folds.
blaydzfsteel folds.
ifusayso: well, i got a A
ifusayso: got a 6 too though
ifusayso folds.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 3500

[lacky]

ah, forgot that one, still, seems like I'd be better off pushing crap than calling raises weak.

live and learn!

Steve

[iRoD]

My instinct is to play JJ and QQ, but ditch TT. I feel somewhat open to being convinced I'm wrong about JJ, but QQ seems to be not that difficult.

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to add to this post Boooooom. Your instincts to play top 10 hands in a situation like this is pretty meaningless...

The question here discusses a marginal choice rather than an easy one which negates the calling with QQ or JJ idea...

Cheers Pat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]
My instinct is to play JJ and QQ, but ditch TT. I feel somewhat open to being convinced I'm wrong about JJ, but QQ seems to be not that difficult.

I'm not quite sure what you are trying to add to this post Boooooom. Your instincts to play top 10 hands in a situation like this is pretty meaningless...

The question here discusses a marginal choice rather than an easy one which negates the calling with QQ or JJ idea...

Cheers Pat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

AK is a top ten hand last time I checked

[iRoD]

I was only talking about the situation involving A6 as opposed to the original point about AK which of course is a top ten hand... thanks Apathy, your a pal.