Reverse Implied Odds

[sthief09]

oops


Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $15. MP2 posts a blind of $15. Hero posts a blind of $15.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 (poster) raises</font>, MP2 (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.66 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.83 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

River: (9.83 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 11.83 BB

[Nate tha' Great]

I don't see anything wrong with this.

Change your [censored] avatar.

[chief444]

I don't see any other way to play it.

[Rico Suave]

Am I retarded for wanting to fold the flop?

--Rico

[Wired Jokers]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I retarded for wanting to fold the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not retarded, but somewhat mentally challenged. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif At the time action gets to Hero, it is 12.33 bets. Hero's outs:

Backdoor flush to the nuts: 1.5
Backdoor straight to the nuts: .5
Overcard: 1 (at best, for fear of domination)

So, 3 outs, getting ~14.5 to 1 on his flop call. I call and see if the turn brings me a redraw.

[Harv72b]

Okay....am I retarded for wanting to raise this flop, then?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay....am I retarded for wanting to raise this flop, then?

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah, why would I want to raise?

[Harv72b]

You don't think it's a little odd that MP1 bet into you on a K-high flop after just calling your preflop 3-bet? That reeks of flush draw to me...?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think it's a little odd that MP1 bet into you on a K-high flop after just calling your preflop 3-bet? That reeks of flush draw to me...?

[/ QUOTE ]


no, I don't think it's odd at all. he doesn't want to give me a free card. he COULD have a flush draw, but I put him on JJ, TT, or maybe AK there. I had no read on this guy so it could mean a variety of things. I was pretty sure I was beat there, and beat bad. but it's hard to fold getting 13-1. I think raising is really bad. if I get 3-bet, I'm screwed and have to call, having put 3 bets in drawing to runner runner. I think raising there is misapplied aggression

[Harv72b]

Yeah, I guess the possibility of being 3-bet by AK makes this a tough one.

One other thing, though...of the hands you've put MP1 on, every one of them would be scared of this board. AK can't have a /images/graemlins/spade.gif, and JJ-TT obviously don't like that K showing up. I guess it still comes down to having a read on the player &amp; knowing that he's capable of folding one of those hands here, so against an unknown the flop raise doesn't really help. And I guess that AK/KQ would be too scared of allowing a free card on the flop to go for a check/raise, now that I think about it, so him betting out doesn't necessarily mean he doesn't have the K.

Okay, I'm retarded. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[BottlesOf]

Standard.

[MaxPower]

MP1 is a poster and could have practically anything.

I assume from your title you lost this, but I don't think you played it badly.

[Entity]

Josh,

Looks like one of those hands where you just can't do anything else.

Rob

[afk]

I'm not sure how else I'd play this. It looks fine to me.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
At the time action gets to Hero, it is 12.33 bets. Hero's outs:

Backdoor flush to the nuts: 1.5
Backdoor straight to the nuts: .5
Overcard: 1 (at best, for fear of domination)

So, 3 outs, getting ~14.5 to 1 on his flop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This, I don't understand. You are getting 12.33:1 odds yet you are calling a bet with 14.5:1? If you are not going to raise when you hit the A then that means your implied odds have to be good enough to make a 22:1 draw (BDFD,BDSD) profitable. This doesn't make sense to me.

[ThePenguin]

I would have played it the same. Hope MP1 had KQ

[jt1]

I was thinking that against a sophisticated player you should raise on the turn, but then I thought that a call on the flop, to me, after re-raising preflop indicates AK. But that he's not afraid of your possible AK means you should call the turn.

I don't play those limits so I don't know how sophisticated the typical unknown is.

[Schizo]

Bump bump bumpity bump!

Schizo!

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
At the time action gets to Hero, it is 12.33 bets. Hero's outs:

Backdoor flush to the nuts: 1.5
Backdoor straight to the nuts: .5
Overcard: 1 (at best, for fear of domination)

So, 3 outs, getting ~14.5 to 1 on his flop call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This, I don't understand. You are getting 12.33:1 odds yet you are calling a bet with 14.5:1? If you are not going to raise when you hit the A then that means your implied odds have to be good enough to make a 22:1 draw (BDFD,BDSD) profitable. This doesn't make sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]


to raise, I have to be ~55% sure I'm good. to call, if I'm good more than ~10%, then my A is worth something because it leads to a profitable call. just because I can't raise doesn't mean it's worthless. calling has value as long as there's an overlay between the odds offered and the odds you need. if I folded however, then I'd be saying my A outs are worthless

[Schizo]

So, basically you are saying you are calling the flop because you think there is about ~10% chance you have the best hand on the flop? Or there is a 10% chance your ace outs might be good?

calling has value as long as there's an overlay between the odds offered and the odds you need.

Your pot odds:12.33:1
Your drawing odds: 14.5:1
Odds you think you are good 10:1

So what is this overlay you are talking about? The odds offered are less than the odds you need. 12.33:1 pot odds &lt; 14.5:1 drawing odds.

Thanks for taking the time to explain sthief09.

-Schizo

[xxxxx]

I can't believe you got 21 responses from a hand with absolutely no meat to it.

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
So, basically you are saying you are calling the flop because you think there is about ~10% chance you have the best hand on the flop? Or there is a 10% chance your ace outs might be good?

calling has value as long as there's an overlay between the odds offered and the odds you need.

Your pot odds:12.33:1
Your drawing odds: 14.5:1
Odds you think you are good 10:1

So what is this overlay you are talking about? The odds offered are less than the odds you need. 12.33:1 pot odds &lt; 14.5:1 drawing odds.

Thanks for taking the time to explain sthief09.

-Schizo

[/ QUOTE ]



no... let's say we determine that my river call is 100% breakeven. if there are 11 bets in the pot, I'm getting 11-1, and I'm good 8.33% of the time. now, I don't make anything on my call, but I managed to win a portion of whatever was in the pot. so, as long as I can make a call on the river, my A outs are worth something positive. if I made better than a breakeven call on the river, then I made more of a positive profit from my A outs. so as long as my A outs are good more than 8.33% on the river and less than 55% on the river, calling is the best play, and my A outs have some worth. what it does mean is my A outs are tainted. I can't credit them to be worth 3 full outs. technically, since I didn't raise, I don't think they can be worth even 1.5 outs.

if I folded, then my A outs would have no value. what is an out if you can't call if you hit it on a pretty safe board? it's not worth anything.

you are saying that my A outs are worthless because I didn't raise. they aren't worthless, just tainted.

[Schizo]

Ok, we have a severe communication problem.

I understand the river call. I know why you called and didn't raise on the river. My question is on the flop, which is before we even know what the turn and river cards are going to be.

You have A /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Flop comes 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

MP1 bets, MP2 calls, Hero.....

After MP2 calls, there are 12.66 SB's in the pot. You need to toss 1 SB into the pot to call.

Wired Jokers estimated your outs at 3 (BDSD,BDFD, and 1 for all the aces) which gives you 14.5:1 drawing odds on the flop. You are 1.84 SB's short of getting the odds you need to call on the flop. We have no clue what the turn and river cards are going to be. Now, why are you calling on the flop?

The only reason I brought up raising the river is because I figured implied odds might be the reason you called. But for know, forget the river, I'm interested in why you can call the flop.

[krishanleong]

Looks good. I'm not sure if the post raise makes me think I'm more likely to be ahead on the river or not. I think a raise, fold to a 3-bet would be a good line on the river if you are comfortable folding to a 3-bet. (Need a good read) The only hands that have you reverse dominated are A3, A2. I would hope that villian would cap AK here.

Krishan

[sthief09]

my backdoor draws have implied odds. there's also a small chance the turn gets checked through. in general, you can afford to make slightly loose calls on the flop, because it's so cheap, and small factors, like turning a draw, and getting a free showdown and A-high holding up or getting a possible free river card, can make up the difference. those things don't need to happen that often for me to make up for the 1/7 of a SB that I'm giving up on the flop.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
make up for the 1/7 of a SB that I'm giving up on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you get 1/7?

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
make up for the 1/7 of a SB that I'm giving up on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you get 1/7?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting 14.5-1, which is the equivalent of 1/15.5 I need like 16-1, which is the equivalent of 1/17. my mistake costs 1/15.5 - 1/17 which is actually 1/175 of a bet. maybe that's not right though. that's what it would seem like it should be logically

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
The only reason I brought up raising the river is because I figured implied odds might be the reason you called. But for know, forget the river, I'm interested in why you can call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is implied odds. Implied odds don't only come into play when you can make a raise on a subsequent street, but all money that goes into the pot after the decision--so even when you're check calling. Now your equity is a percentage of the pot, so you can't count all of the subsequent bets you win, but rather the long term expectation on those subsequent bets, and since the bet size doubles on the turn and river, that's often good enough.

Put another way, imagine a situation where you had 4 outs but were only getting 9:1. Even if you can't raise on the turn those times you hit (although this normally isn't true) there, you're still correct to call in most situations, because the bets you earn on the turn and river are greater than 1 bb (2 sbs--the amt. you're short on the flop).

[Mike Gallo]

Did he flop a set against you?