dELTAnEUTRAL
02-27-2005, 02:35 PM
Scenario:
I’m in the second round of a tournament -
I’m dealt Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the pocket
Everyone else folds, except for the chipleader at our table. He and I both call the BB to see the flop. I notice the chipleader is getting more aggressive and vocal in the past few minutes (chiplead can do that to a guy!)
Flop: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif , 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif
At this point, I’ve got QQ – considering blinds 10K/20K and are going up and I'm small stack (about 190K) – I decide to go all in to be aggressive and push him off whatever he has - I have about half his stack.
– and the chipleader calls me.
Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
River: 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
On the Showdown, I have two pair – Q,Q and 5,5
Chipleader shows a low Straight A, 2, 3, 4, 5 – he caught the Straight on the River.
Here's what I think:
An Analysis of Outs:
His Outs:
- Pick up an Ace = 3 Outs [pair of aces]
- Pick up a Five = 3 Outs less the one I have = 2 Outs [straight]
Total Outs = 5 therefore he has 20.3% chance of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
My Outs:
- Pick up another Queen = 2 Outs [trip queens]
- Pick up another Two = 3 Outs [two pair Q,2]
- Pick up another Four = 3 Outs [two pair Q,4]
Total Outs = 8 therefore I have a 31.5% of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
Therefore, even with the admittedly poor Q,5 in the pocket - I made the right play... any comments all? am I correct?
** all percentages from http://www.freepokerstrategy.braveh...oddschance.html
I’m in the second round of a tournament -
I’m dealt Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif in the pocket
Everyone else folds, except for the chipleader at our table. He and I both call the BB to see the flop. I notice the chipleader is getting more aggressive and vocal in the past few minutes (chiplead can do that to a guy!)
Flop: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif , 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif
At this point, I’ve got QQ – considering blinds 10K/20K and are going up and I'm small stack (about 190K) – I decide to go all in to be aggressive and push him off whatever he has - I have about half his stack.
– and the chipleader calls me.
Turn: 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
River: 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif
On the Showdown, I have two pair – Q,Q and 5,5
Chipleader shows a low Straight A, 2, 3, 4, 5 – he caught the Straight on the River.
Here's what I think:
An Analysis of Outs:
His Outs:
- Pick up an Ace = 3 Outs [pair of aces]
- Pick up a Five = 3 Outs less the one I have = 2 Outs [straight]
Total Outs = 5 therefore he has 20.3% chance of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
My Outs:
- Pick up another Queen = 2 Outs [trip queens]
- Pick up another Two = 3 Outs [two pair Q,2]
- Pick up another Four = 3 Outs [two pair Q,4]
Total Outs = 8 therefore I have a 31.5% of winning the hand after the flop with two cards to come.
Therefore, even with the admittedly poor Q,5 in the pocket - I made the right play... any comments all? am I correct?
** all percentages from http://www.freepokerstrategy.braveh...oddschance.html