anti-delusional mathematics

[SenecaJim]

We frequently see posts from masters of the universe players making 1000 a day playing 2/4 hold'em yadda yadda.

One of the beautiful ( and profitable )things about poker is the luck factor that keeps losers coming back. the skilled player wins in the long run and so forth.

Is there a formula for approximation of the allowances of standard deviation for a given game. I know that size of game in relation to skill affects the BB / hr. winning for that particular game.

So, for the sake of argument, ( spurred on by posts from ssh millionaires ) a low limit game of 4-8 played in by a top player, a world class player, who can adapt back to the optimum play for loose low limit games. How much will he be able to earn per hour given the limitations of the limit and the inherent luck factor? ( I know type of game would affect this, but for here let's say typical game for these stakes and talking one table and bm rate of 30 hands per hour.)

[TStoneMBD]

4BB/hr, or 12BB/100 is reasonable. ive seen 10/20 games at the borgata where i am quite certain that a great player would have no trouble racking in 4BB/hr. most games are not that good however. look at it this way, it is theoretically possible to find a table where you could raise every single hand and noone would ever defend their blinds. you could win all 30 hands in a hours time frame. some players are that bad, but most arent.

[LinusKS]

It's a good question. I don't think anyone knows the answer to it.

[RogerM]

[ QUOTE ]
4BB/hr, or 12BB/100 is reasonable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overestimating win rate is what makes this game so great. HA.

[Cyrus]

What about the EV of the other players at the table? If you are about to sit down at a table with 9 players already playing and you make a guess that 5 of 'em are average-to-winning players and the rest are average-to-losing players, then that table is probably not good for you.

This kind of approach also grounds in reality our expectation. I sit down with sucker X and I figure out to take him out for let's say 5 BBs per hour or so, but when there are 4 other players at the table who are at least as good as me, then that makes it 1 BB or so at most.

[mosquito]

You are really getting into speculation, but given that
most 4-8 games are at least "good" and many are "great"
let's speculate that our WC pro can get out of a poor
game and into a decent one fairly quickly.

The maximum earn can be figured by what the other players
in the game are likely to lose based on their presumed
errors, and taking your "share" of it.

Without doing any math, anything over 3BB/HR seems a bit
ludicrus, assuming they don't just hand you the money.
Someplace between 2-3BB/HR feels right, although with
max conditions (shufflemaster, fast play) perhaps 3BB
could be beat.....

Mosquito