Pulling for a Gutshot

[Chris Villalobos]

Here is a hand where I may have goofed because of the texture of the flop.

I'm UTG with (Ah,Qd) in a 9 handed cash game. SB puts in .4 units, BB puts in 1Unit. I bet 4Units. All fold to the SB and the BB who both call. Pot = 12U

Flop: Kc, Ts, 8c

SB checks, BB bets 6U, I call because I have a gut-shot to the nuts, but I figure I'm beat, and an Ace or Queen probably won't help. I have no clue what this guy could be betting KT, 9J, 88, TT, KK, AcTc,...... He has at least 100U left in his stack, and I have over 100U. I might be able to double up. Pot is now: 24U Now that I think about it I need to hit a 16 to 1 shot on the turn, because I would hate to see the Jc slip off. This is where I think I made the mistake in my calculations of my implied odds.

The turn is the: Js

BB bets 6U again and I put in a big raise of 40U, he calls. I'm thinking he must have Trips. Pot is: 104U

River is the: As (making a back door flush, four straight on the board)

BB checks and I try to sell my hand with a 20U bet which he calls.

For my 6U call on the Flop I won 78U or 1to13. Not all that great for the risk I was taking.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You got paid 13:1 on a 11:1 shot. That sounds OK. Plus, you have position, so if a brick comes on the turn and he checks, there is some chance he was bluffing the flop and has shut down since he got caught. Thus, you might be able to pick up the pot in those spots as well.

Since you were the aggressor preflop and have position, there ought to be lots of ways for you to win this pot other than catching a J.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Chris Villalobos]

Greg,

I figured that the Jack of clubs would be a bad card for me. Having a 3-Flush on the board will certainly slow down the action, or I'll be badly beat. If the Jc came on the turn the best thing I could hope for is that he had a smaller straight or trips. I may be able to still sell my hand to him.

I do agree with you, that I still may be able to win the pot if he was getting out of line on the Flop, but in this game most of the players "check to the raiser" if they are drawing or have middle pair. So I was concerned that he had me beat with two-pair or trips.

As it turned out he was semi-bluffing the flop, and a Club would have ended my hand. He had Ac,xc. I was surprized he called my turn and river bets.

P.S. - I allways enjoy reading your opinions.