Newbie hand, huge hand, huge pot

[Bremen]

Party Poker (10 handed)

Sorry about this, converter puked. I just began playing O/8 seriously so feel free to rip away. Most of my experience is nut peddling so far, but I was curious about the river cap with the 2nd nut. Don't see many three bets to begin with, so I'm not sure what people normally 3-bet with.

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, 1 folds, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 checks, Hero calls, CO checks, Button raises, everyone calls.

Flop: T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(9 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds.

Thinking about this after the fact I have the current nut high, with the nut st8 draw. I assume I should raise at this point?

Turn: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 raises, Hero 3-bets, Button calls (all-in), SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

River: 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players, 1 all-in)</font>
BB checks, UTG bets, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, MP2, calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 22.5BB (sidepot included)

[Nick709]

Hi Bremen, preflop looks fin I would probably limp also.
On the flop you have top set and a nut strait draw but there is a flush draw out so it is a good time to raise and protect your hand. On the turn the low draw is out so I am not sure if the treebet is correct, I would like to hear what others have to say. River, fine, jam it, you don't see quads often enough not to cap.

[Buzz]

Bremen - Wow! Nine out of ten opponents have seen the flop for a double bet each and you have flopped a set of kings plus an open ended straight draw with only one low card on the flop. Sweet!

As an aside, with your hand you're not going to see a king on roughly seven out of eight flops. You have a playable starting hand, but mainly because of the low frequency of favorable flops, not a great one.

[ QUOTE ]
Thinking about this after the fact I have the current nut high, with the nut st8 draw. I assume I should raise at this point?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily. It depends on how your opponents would react to the raise. If your opponents would all stay aboard for the double bet, then obviously the double bet would be a good idea.

But often they won't.

And even if they do stay aboard, you'll often get less out of them on the third and fourth betting rounds when you raise on the first or second betting round. (Depends on your opponents).

On the other side of the balance, you do have a better chance of winning against fewer players, because your flopped set of kings may hold up, unimproved. In addition, especially if your opponents are all oblivious to the raise, you can get an extra small bet out of each of them on the second betting round.

In my mind, whether to call or raise on the second betting round is not a clear cut decision in your particular circumstance. Without as much already in the pot, I think I'd just call, but with so much already in the pot, a raise to possibly limit the field is very tempting. And if a raise would not limit the field, then a raise is clearly in order. You have a very nice flop fit.

If SB had bet and the four intervening players called, then a raise would clearly be in order. But after four checks and then a bet, an immediate raise to make it two bets to everybody is a completely different scenario.

Your hand, flopped top set, isn't good enough to slow play, so that you should bet if nobody ahead of you bets - but as it is, a double bet may cause an avalanche of folds. (I don't think calling here instead of raising is exactly "slow-playing," though in a way, I suppose it is).

At any rate, raising seems reasonable but not raising also seems reasonable. Raising might do better against one particular group of opponents while calling might do better against a different group of opponents.

I think you played fine here. With five opponents calling on the third betting round, you're getting enough fresh money from your opponents to have favorable odds to raise. If the board pairs, only quads will beat you, and the odds against that are roughly twenty to one.

(You do realize that with five opponent calling, a set of kings is not likely to hold up for high, but because of the size of the pot, you're probably stuck calling. Right?)

You have the nut boat on the river, with no low possible. Only quad fours will beat you, and that's not likely.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[BradleyT]

I would raise the flop.

The turn 3-bet is correct if you work out the math.

I'd cap the river too - makes you wonder why the hell 6 players are calling a capped river on a paired board with no low and no straights possible!

Final pot is a lot bigger than 22BB, more like 40+.

[Moneyline]

Preflop: I like calling here because you are likely to get a multi-way pot for a single bet.

Flop: I think you made the right decision to call. If you make your hand there will probably not be a low available because of your 13 outs only the aces enable a low. If you were to raise you would make it harder for others to stay in with crappy draws, and I think you want them in the pot.

Turn: I like jamming for value here. You now have 13 (mostly) clean outs for the whole pot, and even more for half the pot (non-heart A, 2, 3) I think you need at least 2 others in the pot for your raises to have value, and it looks like you will get at least 2 here.

River: I would jam here as well. You don't have the nuts, but I don't think you should play in fear of runner-runner quads either.

[Bremen]

[ QUOTE ]
Final pot is a lot bigger than 22BB, more like 40+.


[/ QUOTE ]
Ya, my bad. For some reason I thought it was 1/2 halfway through. Pot was 45BB!

Thanks for the analysis guys, Buzz was particularly confusing with his musing on raising the flop :0)

[lighterjobs]

I can't even comprehend this hand because there are so many people in.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Buzz was particularly confusing with his musing on raising the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Bremen - Here's the essence of what I thought:

[ QUOTE ]
In my mind, whether to call or raise on the second betting round is not a clear cut decision in your particular circumstance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I imagine it works out about the same either way.

Hope that makes it clear.

Buzz

[Bremen]

Don't worry, I worked my way through it, and am pretty sure I know what you meant.

[Bremen]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't even comprehend this hand because there are so many people in.

[/ QUOTE ]
That would be why I posted it :0) I'm used to this many people when I used to play 2/4 hold'em live. Online though? One guy was calling the river with a busted low draw. The thrid and fourth nuts also called. It was won by quads of course. Interestingly non of them had a flush draw.

[chaos]

I would raise on the flop. Try to get those back door lows out or pay more to chase their runner-runner low.

BTW what stakes is this?

[Bremen]

.5/1

[Worrots]

One thing to bear in mind on the flop is that, with no low cards in your hand and only one low on the board, there's only ~1/3 chance of a low hand playing at the end. Most of the time the High hand scoops. So, I'd want anybody chasing the runner-runner low to stay in on the flop as they're usually not going to make it.

Of the seven players acting after you, who's going to call two-cold?
- high flush draw (Ah suited, Qh suited)
- Broadway straight draw
- runner-runner low draw from an uber-calling station

I think on most PP 0.5/1 tables you'll end up with a larger pot and more people available to make bad probability calls at the turn if you don't raise the flop. But, again, it's table dependent on which will get you a larger pot. At this point, I think a larger pot is more valuable to you than fewer opponents.

On the turn play, consider:
- a non-pairing low will now come about half the time on the river and so half pot if you win high
- you're actually rooting for a low card on the river as a high card makes a straight possible and you'll probably split high at best.
- a heart could easily make someone a flush

That said, I'd raise the turn since most of the table has already put in money and you're likely to get lots of callers. Again, building a big pot for you to hopefully scoop.

River: no low hand possible, so you're playing for the whole pot. You're much more likely to see A high flush from the aggressor than running quads. Everyone else is hanging out hoping to sneak into the big pot. Jam it.