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View Full Version : Am I outhinking myself?


Inthacup
09-13-2002, 04:46 AM
Online 2 4

I'm in BB with Q 8 spades. EP, MP limp. LP raises. I call, as do others. I've played LP before, and he's a solid player. I put him on AK, or big Pocket Pair. 4 see flop.

Flop: Ks Jh 9h.

I check, EP bets, LP calls, and I call.

Turn: Js. I have gutshot draw, with 4 cards to 2nd nut flush. However the board is now paired, and strait and flush may be no good. I check, EP bets out again, and LP raises. This raise screams slowplayed flop. I am sandwiched between an EP who has shown strength and an LP who could very easily have a boat here. I fold, and don't feel bad about it.

River: 5s.

Results are unimportant, but I would have hit my flush. EP checks, as does LP! I know I had winner, now. EP shows Q 10 for flopped strait, and LP shows JQs. Had LP, not raised preflop, his I would have put him on Jx on turn.
I know how dangerous it can be if you rigidly stick to a read, but KK was obvious to me on the turn.

I have the odds to call turn raise here, but in this case I outplayed myself. I put too much concern in a possible reraise from EP. I also put too much respect in LP's preflop raise. I am just wondering if there's a line I need to draw in analyzing others at such low limits.

yct
09-13-2002, 04:52 AM
I think folding is fine, because there's a possibility of the turn get 3 bet or cap, then it gets really costly.

rigoletto
09-13-2002, 06:04 AM
I would have folded on the flop. You have 4 outs to the str8. One could make someones flush (EP could have been betting out on a flush draw) And even when hitting your gutshot any Q will split and AQ (likely from the preflop raiser?) has you beat. I don't think the backdoor flush makes it up for these 'dirty' outs (Is this weak thinking on my part?).

Folding on the turn seems fine to me. If the Js improved his hand, he's (from your desription) likely to have KK JJ or a big flush/str8 draw (AQs). He could also have been slowplaying AQh (not so likely). Anyway Your beat most of the times I think.

AceHigh
09-13-2002, 10:19 AM
I'm with you, fold on the flop for the reasons you mentioned.

XlgJoe
09-13-2002, 11:29 AM
I have a question, for anyone, about the preflop call. I find myself unsure of the proper play in those types of situations(BB,suited but not Axs,and getting 7:1 odds to call the raise).

The 7:1 is probably right to call with hoping for 2 spades on the flop. But post flop you may be playing the hand heads-up and getting horrible odds to continue to play for the flush.

If i dump a hand like this, am I giving up a lot in EV? Or is it right to dump the hand?

Homer
09-13-2002, 12:59 PM
Nice question...

I'd like to know what minimum odds players require to call Kxs, Qxs, etc. from the BB.

KJS
09-13-2002, 04:30 PM