one annoying sit and go situation

[curtains]

$215 NL sit and go -


***** Hand History for Game 1654279844 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:9928710 Level:2 Blinds(15/30) - Saturday, February 26, 23:09:21 EDT 2005
Table Table 11747 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 5: CHRISIS ( $930 )
Seat 9: curtainz ( $1080 )
Seat 3: texastomfnc ( $1485 )
Seat 10: mrmhorn ( $1180 )
Seat 2: mdpa17 ( $905 )
Seat 6: WangChi55 ( $1005 )
Seat 7: nycmatt49 ( $960 )
Seat 8: PokrDreams ( $630 )
Seat 1: trippple ( $875 )
Seat 4: mccsyd ( $950 )
Trny:9928710 Level:2
Blinds(15/30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to curtainz [ As Ks ]
PokrDreams calls [30].
curtainz raises [120].
mrmhorn folds.
trippple folds.
mdpa17 folds.
texastomfnc folds.
mccsyd folds.
CHRISIS folds.
WangChi55 folds.
nycmatt49 folds.
PokrDreams calls [90].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5s, 8s, 3h ]
PokrDreams is all-In [510]

[TylerD]

Is there a question here? You're not considering folding?

[curtains]

I called, it's just annoying to be forced to call in a likely coin flip situation.

[Scuba Chuck]

Yep, sure is a bitch.

At least you have more outs than usual. 15 total, if we assume no dead outs. 15 outs, and 32 nonhelpers is pretty much 2:1 Of course, 6 of those outs could be drawing dead, as villain may have made his set (which I doubt he slow plays with the flush draw out there and his vulnerable stack).

Without more info, this really looks like a stop-n-go. You're getting, what 1.5:1 (?) odds to call?

Do you know the player? Any other details? I like this hand - to study that is.

[curtains]

I know the player is an idiot because he called utg and called my raise with A8c. Before the hand I had no information though

[callmedonnie]

It looks like he's betting approximately twice the pot. Even if he's got a pocket pair higher than the board, so long it looks like your drawing to any A,K, or spade putting you ahead in the hand. He first tried to limp, there is a small chance he's got some weird like a set of 3's but I think you have to call as the first is much more likely.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
I called, it's just annoying to be forced to call in a likely coin flip situation.


[/ QUOTE ]

I fold this in the games I play.

I also raise less preflop.

But I *do* play AK at least, /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

I hear ya, I'd raise less preflop if there was any chance the limper would fold to my raise. There is a chance when I make it 90 more (although I actually prefer making it 130...just looks more imposing to call for 100)

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

just looks more imposing to call for 100)

[/ QUOTE ]

Apparently not imposing enough, /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

I'd actually bet less than 90 even a lot of the time. But 90 sounds fine too.

AK is tricky to play post flop early in party SNGs ..... so I like to keep the pot as small as possible while still raising a bit for value and/or to make sure no one gets completely free flops.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

It's not that hard to play /images/graemlins/smile.gif I admit pairs are easier to play, but I feel confident enough in my ability to play AK postflop there in a raised pot.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

It's not that hard to play /images/graemlins/smile.gif I admit pairs are easier to play, but I feel confident enough in my ability to play AK postflop there in a raised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'm just a weak/tight-ass poser /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Anyway, its ok, nothing terrible about raising to 90 instead. Its just not my style...but its nice if pepole are going to now call you with Ax and pay you off for all their money if ace hits.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I'm just a weak/tight-ass poser .

[/ QUOTE ]

At least the poser part there is right. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Strollen]

Look at the bright side you don't have to wonder if you will get paid off if a 3rd spade falls. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Lets give the villain a few more IQ points and say he was playing Ad8d make the raise 90 instead of 120 making the pot 195.

How do you play this hand if you are the villain?
My inclination would be to bet around 200. Fold to reraise.
Push on the turn unless the turn was a 3rd spade or KQJT.
I am assuming curtain that you'd call a bet of 200 in this situation also right?

Any comments.

[curtains]

Villian can't bet 200 and fold to a raise...thats almost 1/2 of his stack. If I was the villian I don't limp preflop or call the raise preflop so it's tough for me to put myself in his shoes.
If my opponent bet 200 I'd move allin for sure. I was moving allin if he checked as well.

[Strollen]

So you'd fold A8s from EP even with 30BB stack. When would you play Axs?

Why would you push with AK as opposed to just calling a pot size bet? We are talking about bleeding off 20% of your stack not the 40% that the general consensus says you that you should be pushing.

[curtains]

Calling with A8s in EP in a sit and go is just terrible Calling a pot sized raise is even worse. I'd play Axs in late position under good circumstances (ie no raise, a bunch of callers or sometimes if no callers).

On the flop, calling the 200 chip bet is terrible. If you move allin there is some small chance you get your opponent to fold, whereas still having likely at least a 50% chance to win the hand by the river. The nut flush draw and two overcards here is too strong. You are a favorite against most one pair hands.

[TheAmp]

I disagree. Easy fold.

What does he have? Most likely, a pocket pair (A8 was not expected before he showed). Now, he might have hit the set, or maybe he has an overpair (99-JJ), or perhaps just 77. It is clear he has SOMETHING. All YOU have is a draw. 9-15 outs. a coinflip at best. A call may be debatable in a ring game, but not on level 2 of a SnG with 1000 chips. You are risk averse . Furthermore, you should be able to outplay them later on.

You raised 4BB pre-flop. There are advantages and disadvantages to this play, as discussed. One advantage to such a raise, is that you might be representing QQ-AA as well as AK. That increases the odds he has a set, given his all-in lead into the raiser (you), and decreases the chance he has only a pair (or two high cards). If you raise with AKs 4BB preflop, you should use the information you are getting from people betting into you on the flop. Needless to say, the fact that we now know he actually had A8 is not relavent at all.

Fold to all-in. Push flop if he checks.

[curtains]

You can't outplay people so much that you have to decline a possible coin flip for 500 of your chips when there is 800 already in the pot. This is a $215 sit and go, where the players don't play like giant idiots all of the time, you generally need to take a situation that is this clearly +EV.
Also I think there is some chance you are a huge favorite if he has a lower flush draw or is simply bluffing. I think this is more likely than being up against a set here.

btw in my opinion there is extremely little chance he has a set. People simply don't bet out into the raiser in this exact situation with a set.

[TylerD]

That's why I find it amazing that anyone would fold this.

[Voltron87]

At the higher buy ins (I've played about 2-3 215s in my life, bear in mind, mostly step 5s) I go for a CR here, the same way I play an overpair.

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't outplay people so much that you have to decline a possible coin flip for 500 of your chips when there is 750-800 already in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't make a big deal out of it. you are giving away 120 chips to avoid a coinflip (at best) for half your stack.


[ QUOTE ]
This is a $215 sit and go, where the players don't play like giant idiots all of the time, you generally need to take a situation that is this clearly +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you play 200$ SnG's with 15$ fee, I believe you expect to outplay your oponnents. This is a good place to start.

[ QUOTE ]
btw in my opinion there is extremely little chance he has a set. People simply don't bet out into the raiser in this exact situation with a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

There was an obvious flush draw. That scares "people". I don't know what the exact probability he has a set (given his lead), but assuming you have 15 outs is simply wrong (you had only 12 outs here, that can also happen).

[curtains]

I actually wasn't posting this as a hand question, it was more of an annoying situatiuon where you have to accept a probable coin flip early in a sit and go.

[curtains]

It's not about how many chips of mine I've given away, its about my pot odds now, which happen to be tremendous. I wish I were good enough to just fold here and crush everyone later on with my obvious skill, but I'm not.

I do expect to outplay them. One of the ways I outplay them is by calling for 500 in an 800 dollar pot when Im probably a slight favorite/slight underdog.

There is also extremely little chance he has a set. A flush draw doesn't generally scare people in a headsup pot where the only other opponent was the preflop raiser. Very unlikely I have a flush draw here. Actually the absolute only hand in the deck that I would have raised with preflop 2nd to act and made a flush draw, is AK of spades. The chances of this aren't very high.

Since it's blatantly obvious I will bet this flop if he checks, the large majority of players with a set will check here. I actually think that betting is just flat out wrong if you flop a set here as the first player. There is 270 in the pot already and he has 510, When he bets 200 there is no fold equity so I'll just fold overcards but move allin with my pairs. Whereas if he checks, I'll bet all my hands on this board.

[TheAmp]

I see. I won't waste my time next time then.

[curtains]

Well no don't feel like that, I understand how people might want to fold, especially at lower buyins. And I did expect some people to suggest folding, I just happen to think it's wrong.

People seem to overestimate their ability to outplay their opponents in general. I wouldn't be totally shocked if this was a reasonable fold at some of the lower buyins...although I'd probably move allin anyway. At a $215 buyin I think you are just giving up too much to fold here.

The higher the buyin, the less your edge will generally be against your opponents, and thus you will often be forced to play in sitautions like this.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't make a big deal out of it. you are giving away 120 chips to avoid a coinflip (at best) for half your stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

Folding here is pretty bad at any level.

Start by giving him a range of hands. Although the pot odds need to be more attractive at $10+1 than $200+15 because of your bigger edge, his range of hands is (dis)proportionately wider. For one thing, in a 10+1 he can play 76s or absolutely nothing this way.

Once you put him on a range, you can't fold getting 1.5:1, period.

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]

Once you put him on a range, you can't fold getting 1.5:1, period.

[/ QUOTE ]
Given the range of hands I mentioned, curtains is a small underdog. I am aware of the odds offered by the pot, but in my opinion, the fact that you are risk averse in this situation outweighs these odds.

Lets look at the stack sizes after each scenario:

Fold on flop : 960 chips

Call all-in and win (lets say 47%) :1755 chips

Call all-in and lose (53%) :450 chips

The damage of losing this hand so early is not compensated by the +EV you gain when you call.

Yes, this is the minority opinion. Please respect my detailed point of view - I respect yours, even if we don't agree.

Ending posts with "period" does not contribute to an open discussion. I might be wrong to fold this hand, but you (and others) may be convinced now that this is a closer decision than it seems. That should make my effort worthwhile.


S.J.

[curtains]

I still believe that it's definitely worth the risk, especially if I'm 47% to win the hand. It's hard to have an ROI above 10% in the $215s, thus showing that there is less discrepency in skill between the best and worst players in the event. I just don't think you can get away with regularly folding in this situation (and still think it's a mistake to fold if this was a lower limit, but I admit it's closer).

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]

I still believe that it's definitely worth the risk, especially if I'm 47% to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. My point is that +EV shouldn't be the only guideline to consider, and I believe it is WAY overrated in tournament poker. Would you call a level 1 all in with 22 if you knew you were up against AK, and everyone else will fold? This idea has nothing to do with the buy-in, or with your oponnent's skill. It's basic theory in tournament poker.
Similar arguments can be made regarding the ICM model, and I think we agree about that.

The fact you should be risk averse for half your stack on the early stages of SnG's is underrated. We shouldn't forget this is why very tight play is recommended on levels 1-3. Mucking hands with +EV pre-flop is routine.

There are additional considerations as well. For example, if you win this hand, you will knock out the all in player. You will gain tournament equity, Which is what matters. That could make it correct to call, not just the "pot odds".

I believe your post is very important, not just an "annoying situation" as you say, because it demonstrates balancing between contradicting ideas in SnG poker. That's what it takes to beat SnG's. Actually, that's what it takes to beat any poker game.

S.J.

[MagnoliasFM]

Calling there IS his edge over the field.

[apd138]

I can't comment on the $215 tournies as I play mostly $11. As to the $11 I think folding here is bad this is because I think curtains will be ahead in this hand more times than he is facing a set. 67's or any suit for that matter is possible also ak's or ak'os I would be suprised but not shocked to see any random two here k10 910 etc. A lot of people at this limit are simply that bad and this particular player will be somewhat short stacked if he loses hand that often causes people to be desperate, or use the my dick is bigger than yours philosophy. Also I don't really think a $11 player (and with no knowledge any other player either) would move in with a set here.

[TheAmp]

To avoid any confusion, I refer to EV as risk neutral equity, such as in a ring game. EV should NOT be interpreted as tournament equity.

[Ryan527h]

Usually, for me atleast, pushing gets more calls than a pot sized bet on the flop, when the flush draw comes. Pushing is looked as more of a bluff. Betting the pot gives them improper odds.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
To avoid any confusion, I refer to EV as risk neutral equity, such as in a ring game. EV should NOT be interpreted as tournament equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you considered that thinking of CEV (Chip EV) in lieu of $EV (tournament equity) is the difference in your thought vs others?

[mackthefork]

Anyone who folds this hand is playing too high. End of.

Regards Mack