MylesD
02-26-2005, 10:49 PM
Hello. 2 things, I am terrible at advanced math and all the numbers I use in this post are rounded for ease of use.
My questions are:
If your pot equity is larger than your pot odds should you rely on pot equity on the Flop and Turn?
Should you use pot odds to call and pot equity to determine a re-raise?
Here is an example I was meesing around with when these thoughts hit my brain. In the example I eliminated Straight and Flush possibilties. I used Poker Stove for the pot equity numbers.
AcJc vs. Ad5d pre-flop pot equity 68.44% - 31.56%
Flop Ah 5h 9h pot equity AJ 27.525% TPTK - A5 72.475% 2-Pair
AJ has 6 outs or 12.8% pot odds on Turn. Since this is smaller than the pot equity should I think in terms of pot equity to call, raise or re-raise?
Here is the line of play I was thinking in terms of:
A5 is first to act (player 1) and AJ has position (player 2) – A 5 bets out on the flop with his 2-Pair to find out if it is good. Pot odds say that a bet of one third the pot (giving 4 to 1 odds to call) or one quarter of the pot (giving 5 to 1 odds to call) would make the A J (6 outs, 12.8% or 1 out of every 7.8 times) wrong in calling. But the A J has more pot equity (27.52% or 1 to 3.6 odds of hitting rounded.) than the pot odds indicate.
So the smart player holding AJ can fire back a re-raise on the Flop or wait until the Turn when another over card to the small 2-Pair might hit giving him more bluffing equity and 9 outs.
So the AJ has a 12.8% chance to hit a better 2-Pair on the turn he will hit his card 1 out of every 7.8 times but his pot equity says he will win (is this both streets?) 27.52% of the time or 1 in 3.6 times (approx.) Leaving 1 out of 4.2 times hanging out there to re-raise with or 14.72%.
Does the AJ have 3.2 times the pot equity over pot odds to re-raise with and still be in accordance with probability?
Did I figure this correctly or is my math just all wrong and I shouldn't even think this deeply about it?
Thank You for your answers, they are very appreciated.
David
My questions are:
If your pot equity is larger than your pot odds should you rely on pot equity on the Flop and Turn?
Should you use pot odds to call and pot equity to determine a re-raise?
Here is an example I was meesing around with when these thoughts hit my brain. In the example I eliminated Straight and Flush possibilties. I used Poker Stove for the pot equity numbers.
AcJc vs. Ad5d pre-flop pot equity 68.44% - 31.56%
Flop Ah 5h 9h pot equity AJ 27.525% TPTK - A5 72.475% 2-Pair
AJ has 6 outs or 12.8% pot odds on Turn. Since this is smaller than the pot equity should I think in terms of pot equity to call, raise or re-raise?
Here is the line of play I was thinking in terms of:
A5 is first to act (player 1) and AJ has position (player 2) – A 5 bets out on the flop with his 2-Pair to find out if it is good. Pot odds say that a bet of one third the pot (giving 4 to 1 odds to call) or one quarter of the pot (giving 5 to 1 odds to call) would make the A J (6 outs, 12.8% or 1 out of every 7.8 times) wrong in calling. But the A J has more pot equity (27.52% or 1 to 3.6 odds of hitting rounded.) than the pot odds indicate.
So the smart player holding AJ can fire back a re-raise on the Flop or wait until the Turn when another over card to the small 2-Pair might hit giving him more bluffing equity and 9 outs.
So the AJ has a 12.8% chance to hit a better 2-Pair on the turn he will hit his card 1 out of every 7.8 times but his pot equity says he will win (is this both streets?) 27.52% of the time or 1 in 3.6 times (approx.) Leaving 1 out of 4.2 times hanging out there to re-raise with or 14.72%.
Does the AJ have 3.2 times the pot equity over pot odds to re-raise with and still be in accordance with probability?
Did I figure this correctly or is my math just all wrong and I shouldn't even think this deeply about it?
Thank You for your answers, they are very appreciated.
David