question on flush draws

[maldini]

general concensus is that one has 9 outs to a flush draw flop or ~ 2:1. (9/47 + 9/46)(please let's not get caught up in exact #s)

my question: is this not best case scenario? why not factor in the AVERAGE number of your suit that are likely to be dealt in a full ring. seems like a statistically significant figure. kinda like looking at effective outs.

scenario:
9 handed ring game.
2 hole cards for eight opponents = 16 cards
1/4 of the cards (roughly) are likely to be of your suit. that's 4 less outs on average.

is there some reason this should be accounted for? doesnt this make it more like 4:1 with 2 cards to come?

im sure i'm missing something but just cant figure this one out.

thanks for setting me str8. i'm sure someone will.

[AngusThermopyle]

Your hand + flop = 5 cards
47 remain, 9 hearts, roughly one fifth
16 cards in opponenets hands, say one fifth are hearts (not one fourth, they come from a collection of cards that has 4 hearts revoved along with one non-heart ), so
3 hearts, 13 non-hearts in their hands
(say they all expose their hands for you).

Rest of deck is now 31 cards, 6 hearts. Roughly one fifth, again. So your odds will still be the same to make your flush.

Yes, your opponents will be dealt your flush cards, but they will also be dealt non-flush cards to offset that.

Now, if there is a lot of action on the flop, you might infer that several other players are drawing for the same flush ( even if you are drawing to the nut flush ). If 2 or three others are drawing to the flush, yes, your odds of making it will be greater.

[maldini]

perfect explaination. i was defintely forgetting that a proportional amount of the unseen cards are non-hearts.

what a moron I am. can you believe someone can make a bad living playing online and not figure this out on their own?

thanks.