Take their money now or wait for c/r turn?

[QTip]

OK..before someone says "Raise PF"...I didn't want to because of all the limpers in this hand and my position (Page 73 footnotes of SSHE).

Anyway, I really like my hand and my position to the flop bettor...would you take their money now and raise here or wait for the bigger street? The answer seemed clear in my mind, but I wanted to make sure that I didn't make a mistake here.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls

Final Pot: 11.50 BB

[QTip]

my position...the button...not bad before someone says that...I just know the blinds are loose and they're coming along for 6 to the flop.

[butters]

raise the flop. there's no guarantee you'll get bet into on the turn, so make them pay now. plus, you'll be charging a flush draw as much as possible.

and raise preflop.

[brettbrettr]

Doubtful the SB will 3 bet any hands you're ahead of. Easy raise, no one is going anywhere.

[einbert]

You know the blinds coming along is a bad thing for you right?

You need to raise this PF. The flop is closer, in fact a call isn't bad at all with your Kd redraw. I would just call hoping to raise a good turn card.

[brettbrettr]

Really? Am I missing somehting here? I don't see any draws folding the turn anyways, so why not raise now?

[pokerkai]

I think with 4 limpers I dont mind the limp.

Theres no real way to protect your hand here. The strength of your hand isnt going to change a ton based on the turn card, so I would simply vote for raising now and getting your value in.

[einbert]

We can get more money in when we have the best hand and get less money in when we're just drawing. In this particular case raising the flop is probably just as good, but if a diamond comes on the turn I really don't want to get c/r'ed and have to pay 2BB to see the river when I'm probably behind.

[brettbrettr]

Sounds pretty monsters under the bed to me.

[einbert]

So if you raise this flop, a diamond comes and you bet and get check/raised you think it's irrational to think you're behind?

[brettbrettr]

Not at all. But I don't see the point in passing up an edge now when you're likely ahead.

[pokerkai]

[ QUOTE ]
Sounds pretty monsters under the bed to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly...passing up a pretty big value raise for fear of a 1/6 flush draw (that may or may not be out there) just seems weak.

[Jake (The Snake)]

[ QUOTE ]
OK..before someone says "Raise PF"...I didn't want to because of all the limpers in this hand and my position (Page 73 footnotes of SSHE).


[/ QUOTE ]

Read it again. Raise preflop.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sounds pretty monsters under the bed to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly...passing up a pretty big value raise for fear of a 1/6 flush draw (that may or may not be out there) just seems weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm advocating is passing up a small value raise for fear of a 1/3 flush draw in favor of a BIGGER value raise against a 1/6 flush draw. But you do have a significant equity edge so you are getting value out of raising. You have a lot more equity on fourth street when a nondiamond comes, and the bets are double the size, thus my reasoning.

[mr pink]

q-tip

raise preflop, limping on the button here is silly.

raise the flop, get the money in now while you're ahead. a lot of these guys are planning on folding to any turn bets but will call now while they've already put a bet in the pot.

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Sounds pretty monsters under the bed to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

my thoughts exactly...passing up a pretty big value raise for fear of a 1/6 flush draw (that may or may not be out there) just seems weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm advocating is passing up a small value raise for fear of a 1/3 flush draw in favor of a BIGGER value raise against a 1/6 flush draw. But you do have a significant equity edge so you are getting value out of raising. You have a lot more equity on fourth street when a nondiamond comes, and the bets are double the size, thus my reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you taking an either or approach? You can raise on the flop and the river.

[einbert]

I think it's either-or because low-limit players (and possibly poker players in general) have a tendency to check to the raiser on the previous round.

So if you raise here you're probably only going to get in 1BB on the turn when you're ahead and you'll probably get C/Red when you're behind so you'll have to put in 2BB when you're behind. If you don't raise the flop it's more likely you'll be bet into on a blank turn and you can raise charging a flush draw more to draw out on you when their odds are weaker.

Since you have the BDFD, raising now is probably fine too. I'm just not sure it's optimal. It also depends on how aggressive the flop bettor is (how likely he is to bet the turn on a blank) and how tricky the other players are (how likely they are to check/raise a flush on the turn as opposed to betting out with it).

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
But I don't see the point in passing up an edge now when you're likely ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you're passing up on this smaller edge so you might take advantage of a much bigger edge on a bigger bet street where the odds of your opponents drawing out are longer? Effectively, costing them more money in the longrun to hit their hands?

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
my thoughts exactly...passing up a pretty big value raise for fear of a 1/6 flush draw (that may or may not be out there) just seems weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that the only draw possible here? What other reasonable draw on this flop is really making a mistake calling getting 12-1, + implieds, when you raise this flop?

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
raise the flop. there's no guarantee you'll get bet into on the turn,

[/ QUOTE ]

By this reasoning, you'd never go for a c/r because there's no guarantee someone will bet in LP.

[ QUOTE ]
you'll be charging a flush draw as much as possible.


[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you'd be helping the flush draw make money on this flop.

You're also not charging him as much as possible.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy raise, no one is going anywhere.



[/ QUOTE ]

Pot's starting to get big, wouldn't you like some of them to go somewhere? Or at least think about it? How about making them pay big for staying? You can't do that on the flop.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
The strength of your hand isnt going to change a ton based on the turn card,

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you'll likely still have a pair. But your edge may increase quite a bit.

b

[brettbrettr]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Easy raise, no one is going anywhere.



[/ QUOTE ]

Pot's starting to get big, wouldn't you like some of them to go somewhere? Or at least think about it? How about making them pay big for staying? You can't do that on the flop.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, but none of them will be making a mistake calling with a flush draw on the turn, regardles of whether or not you bet here, no?

[bernie]

Preflop: I usually limp with 4 ahead of me. 3 is give and take. I'd probably raise. so what. I can let that slide.

Flop: Very drawlike board. You're raise forces the next guy to call getting 11-1. What isn't correct in calling that? You're not protecting anything here. You'd actually be hoping the sb 3bets it to blast some in between guys. But how much would you really like your hand then? There is value to raising, though you're not charging a flush draw anything. They'll welcome the raise especially if everyone comes along. I'd wait for the turn to pop it on a safe card if you think there's a good chance you will get bet into on the turn.

Anyone 3 betting you on this flop can put you in an interesting position as many different hands can do this with this many players in. You won't really know where you're at. This depends on the predictability of your opponent, obviously.

As with most of this type of situation, you will be berated if you wait, and the posts will go on and on, over and over just as they always have every time this situation presents itself: Charge the flush draw the max (false); get the money in while you 'know' you have the edge(true, but there is a bigger edge on the turn); no guarantee you will get bet into on the turn(is there ever a guarantee?)...blah blah...

Good luck with it.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, but none of them will be making a mistake calling with a flush draw on the turn, regardles of whether or not you bet here, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Effectively, they'd hate it.

Let's say you call this flop. Turn starts at 6-1? (ill round up) Would a flush draw like the thought of putting 2 bets in on this street? Note that a flush draw is also about 5-1 to hit at this point. You have one of his outs which reduces his odds by about a full point on the turn as opponed to .3 of a point on the flop. Wouldn't his take (equity) in this pot not be drastically reduced from what he has on the flop? If there are 2 flush draws, they really wouldn't like it. 2 pair draws won't like it, as they can easily call the flop raise also. Gutshots will really hate it.

The flush draw isn't your main concern on the flop. It's not a huge mistake for many to call that single raise on the flop. Even the A of trump can eek a little if he knew he hit an A it would be good.

Remember, Im not saying there's no value to raising this flop. Sometimes I would depending on how the table is playing. (tighter postflop I'd be inclined to raise a bit more)

Generally speaking: Just saying I likely have the best hand so I must bet/raise isn't really thinking about the situation other than on single level. I mean, really, isn't that just as simplistic as the 'fit or fold' flop approach?

b

[QTip]

Thanks everyone for the thoughts...appreciate it.

What did I do? I raised the flop and everyone called. An Ace came on the turn and some bet, eveyone else folded and I called down to see Ax take my nice pot.

For those of you who said raise PF and to reread SSHE..here's the quote after I've reread:

"If the pot is already many-handed, perhaps 5 or 6 limpers, consider just limping with AJ and KQ. Your preflop edge is relatively small against so many opponents, and your call should give you strategic advantages wich can make up for your small theoretical loss form not raising by allowing you to outplay your opponents after the flop" ...(should have been a cavaet here: "Unless an Ace falls on the turn")

Thanks again.