PDA

View Full Version : High draw with a low draw on the board


David BB
02-26-2005, 03:53 PM
No reads other than UTG being a loose goose.

Should I have played this any differently? Perhaps found a fold somewhere with the made low on the board?

PokerStars 2/4 Omaha/8 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (20.50 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 caps</font>, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 34.50 BB

djr
02-26-2005, 04:33 PM
Flop. You have the nut flush draw and there is, as yet, no low, easy call.
ON the turn. You have the nut flush draw with a gut straight draw, but there is a low so you only get 1/2 the pot if it comes in. Given there's no guarantee that MP3 will raise, you're getting 6.5:1 pot odds with 10 outs to the hi (roughly 3.3:1), you're right to call. even if you figure MP3 will raise 50% of the time you're getting enough odds if you factor in implied odds.

River: Given UTG suddenly coming alive, you're probably splitting the hi side of this pot. But, you're obvious not folding and it will be capped by someone almost certainly.

Buzz
02-26-2005, 09:09 PM
David - 1st betting round: There are going to be people who will think you should raise on the first betting round with this hand, but I don't think you should.

2nd betting round: You have a clear call on the flop.

I think you take the betting rounds separately in terms of figuring odds, but let's look ahead to the river before we do that. There are 990 two card combinations possible on the turn and river. Of these (my count might be off a bit here or there):
• 59 get you the whole pot
• 254 get you half the pot
• 179 are enigmatic in that they make your spade flush or straight but also pair the board or enable a better straight. Let's suppose that you see the showdown with these and they win 20% of the time. (Maybe that's a bit low, but I'm going to count all these wins as scoops rather than counting some of them as worth only half the pot - I think this will get us close enough).
• 498 are clear misses.

It's difficult to know what the whole pot will be worth at the show down when you are faced with the bet on the second betting round. At this point in time, there have been no raises. If you assume there will be no raises and that there will be a gradual attrition, perhaps it will cost you three small bets to see the river, and perhaps you will win 20 small bets when you scoop and 7.5 small bets when you split. This isn't what actually happened, but it might give you a very rough idea of what to expect in a passive game.
+20*59/990 = +1.192
+7.5*254/990 = +1.924
+20*179/990*0.20 = +0.723
-5*179/990*0.80 = -0.723
-3*498/990 = -1.509

That's very crude, but if you total, you can see that you'll make more by playing the hand in a passive game with this many opponents than you'll lose.

If you figure in a more aggressive game it will cost you twice as much to see the river, and that you have the same attrition rate as with the passive game,
when you scoop, you'll win +34 and when you split, you'll win +12. But it will cost you 6 to see the river instead of
3. In that case,
+34*59/990 = +2.026
+12*254/990 = +3.079
+34*179/990*0.20 = +1.229
-10*179/990*0.80 = -1.446
-6*498/990 = -3.018

Again, that's very crude, but again, if you total, you can see that you'll make more by playing the hand in an aggressive game with this many opponents than you'll lose. Indeed, it looks as though you profit even more in an aggressive game than in a passive one - but keep in mind this is a crude estimation and does not take into account the increased tendency of opponents to fold in a more aggressive game. (When you are primarily drawing for the nut flush, you want your opponents still in the hand so as to pay you off when you make a winner).

At any rate, you should see that this flop, even with two low cards, is a favorable drawing flop for your nut flush draw. Knowing this, you should not be intimidated by the raises. (But that is not to say you should be raising yourself, lest you cause your future possible customers to fold).

But back to the immediate odds consideration on the second betting round. The way to look at this bet is as one transaction, kind of like you look at a lottery bet. If you lose, you can make another bet the next day (or not).

With your hand, and after this flop, there are eight non-pairing spades plus three nines, a total of eleven cards, that leave you with the nut high after the turn. (Don't think about what can happen on the river - that's an issue for the third betting round, not the second).

There are also seven cards that can pair the board without making a spade flush for you on the turn. You'll be folding if any of them appear. (A cardinal rule is not to draw for a flush when the board is already paired). The eight of spades is a tough call; what to do depends on your read of your opponents.

The other 29 cards are blanks. What to do if any of them appear on the turn depends. But that's an issue for the third betting round - not the second betting round.

You have 11 favorable cards and the rest are either unfavorable or blank. The odds against your catching one of the 11 favorable cards on the turn are 34 to 11, roughly three to one. You need to average winning 3.1 times what you invest on this betting round to have favorable odds to play.

At the point when the betting gets to you the first time, there is no indication of a raise behind you and there are already 9 small
bets in the pot. You're getting 9 to 1 odds for the whole pot, plus implied pot odds. You're only getting 4 to 1 pot odds for half the pot, but with implied pot odds, those are enormously favorable too. The combination of those odds in the correct approximate proportions probably makes your pot odds about 5 to 1 overall, with your implied pot odds even higher.

You thus have enormously favorable odds to call a bet after this flop. You don't have to know what the odds are - just that they are very favorable. And if there's a raise behind you, you'll have even more favorable odds to call the raise. And we've looked ahead and seen that you'll probably make more money if someone raises than if they don't - so that you don't care if someone behind you raises or not.

But raising here yourself, rather than calling, involves different considerations. In my humble opinion you should not generally raise here yourself.

At any rate, you clearly have odds to call, and then you clearly have odds to call the raises.

Third betting round: You have the same eleven outs as on the second betting round, but now, because the turn enabled low, you're playing for half the pot. But you were 4/5 (or whatever) playing for half the pot anyway. Odds against you catching one of your eleven cards for half the pot on the river are 33 to 11 or exactly 3 to 1.

What that means is you need to win three times your investment on the times that you win to justify drawing. At the point when the betting gets to you, you're getting 6.25 to 1 half pot odds to call a single bet. If you could foresee the betting getting jammed on the turn, you'd still be getting almost 3 to 1 odds for half the pot, and if you include implied pot odds, better than three to one. Ironically, you'll average making more money if it gets jambed here, even though your odds will be worse.

At any rate, you just call the initial bet and then call the raises. Fine.

4th betting round: You have the nut straight, but someone else (or maybe more than just one opponent) very well might have the same high hand. You can't knock out another nut straight, but by jamming you might knock out a non-nut high. I'd just call, rather than raising.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

Moneyline
02-27-2005, 05:15 AM
Preflop: The fact that you're double suited probably makes this worth a call. Although I generally don't like playing high-only hands from EP unless the game conditions are perfect, the fact that you're double suited gives you a lot of redraws if you happen to catch a good flop.

Flop: Calling the first bet seems pretty straightforward. The pot is pretty huge and a lot of players are still in, so I'd call the raise and reraise too, but I think this is just barely worth a call.

Turn: Huge pot, so even though a low has been made and there might be a raise behind you I would stay in the pot as well. Calling the reraise is automatice, IMO.

River: Great card. I would jam it too. Even though someone else may have caught the same gutshot as you, jamming is automatic IMO as you will probably have 3 opponents showing down.

02-27-2005, 09:44 PM
I am one who would raise pre-flop with this hand. If high cards come out (no low), chances are this hand may be good, but I'd like to eliminate the J-J-blank-blank and 10-10-blank-blank (assuming you can't get Q-Q-x-x or K-K-x-x to fold, which may not be a correct assumption depending on the other players). And you also may weed out the A-3-x-x and A-4-x-x so if a 2 comes out (as it did), you may have counterfeited those who did play for low and increased the chance of scooping even if a low is on board. What is the significant downside to raising here pre-flop?

Buzz
02-28-2005, 07:02 AM
[ QUOTE ]
What is the significant downside to raising here pre-flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Niss - I don't think you'll like many flops, maybe 20% to 25%, sometimes you'll lose even when you do like the flop, and sometimes you'll have to split with low. When you don't like the flop, or when you simply lose even though you like the flop, your pre-flop raise will cost you. When you only win the high half, you'll only win half of what your opponents contribute because of the pre-flop raise.

Because of these various factors, I think you need at least five or six opponents who will call your raise. Here, without the raise, David had five opponents who saw the flop with him. If they all would have called the raise, then fine, he probably breaks even over the long run with the pre-flop raise.

David need customers when he makes his hand to make up for the times he misses.

If David loses any customers because of the pre-flop raise, then not fine. (In that case, he loses over the long run because of the pre-flop raise).

I spent some time a while back, trying to decide what starting hands to play and how to best play them, working out the numbers for myself, and came to the conclusion that pre-flop raises made sense when they had the effect of intimidating one or more of your opponents.

I don't think you gain much by pre-flop raising unless an opponent who otherwise would have beaten you out of all or part of a pot folds because of your pre-flop raise.

But in this situation, David doesn't want to lose anybody.

Buzz

gergery
02-28-2005, 09:19 PM
Hmm, I agree with calling preflop and calling the first flop bet. But when it gets raised and reraised I think you need to adjust your outs.

When it comes back around on the flop, the pot is 8.5BBs with you and then the raiser to act. Assuming MP3 will call you must risk 1BB to win 9.5BB. However, there will be a low enabled something like 85% of the time. So .85*9.5 +.15*4.25 gets you something like ~ 5:1 odds on your hand. Working backward, you need to have ~8 outs for a call to be correct. You have 8 spades and 3 9’s, and I’ll toss in a runner-runner boat and round it to an even 12 outs. BUT, what can your opponents be playing on with here with raises and reraises? A strong low, a wrap, spades, sets, maybe two pair are the choices. So it’s likely that some of your spades are gone, some of your wrap outs are gone, and that the board pairing will lose it for you.

The set will redraw 1 in 4 times, and the 9 will split sometimes, leaving you will about 8 effective outs here. Now, your odds will improve somewhat if you are accurate in putting your opponents on these hands, and they could certainly have set over set over set or two lows such that all your outs are good and there are no redraws. And you have implied odds.

So you are getting enough odds to call, but not by a lot – this seems slightly/moderately profitable to me.

And if there are raises, then you are putting in 1 bet to win about 2.2 bets (6 new bets likely discount for split pot, minus your bet) but you likely don’t have the effective outs to make that pay out. So getting more money in the pot here is EV negative for you, but not enough to make folding better than calling.

Btw, thanks for all your posts on this stuff buzz, thinking thru why I agree/disagree with you has made me a much better player.

--Greg

Buzz
03-01-2005, 07:44 AM
[ QUOTE ]
But when it gets raised and reraised I think you need to adjust your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Greg - Maybe in some situations, but what can they have here for their raises? This is a spade draw flop and a low draw flop. Hero has the nut spade draw, and also has a ten, which reduces the probability of an opponent holding top set by roughly a factor of three.

[ QUOTE ]
BUT, what can your opponents be playing on with here with raises and reraises?

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

[ QUOTE ]
A strong low, a wrap, spades, sets, maybe two pair are the choices.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another choice is maybe they all don't know what they're doing. Maybe some of these opponents fit into the Mr. Magoo (or clueless) category.

[ QUOTE ]
So it’s likely that some of your spades are gone, some of your wrap outs are gone,

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but some are gone anyway. Some of your outs are always located in the hands of your opponents (but some of the no-outs are located there too). The outs that are "gone" may be more concentrated in some hands that were originally dealt than others. The hands in which the gone outs are concentrated may be the ones that are involved in the action. But it's still pretty hard to see what any of Hero's opponents can hold to be jambing after this flop.

[ QUOTE ]
The set will redraw 1 in 4 times, and the 9 will split sometimes, leaving you will about 8 effective outs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Some of Hero's outs are in the hands of his opponents. But if you're going to put some of Hero's outs in the hands of opponents, then you also have to put some of Hero's non-outs in the hands of his opponents, (perhaps more concentrated in the hands of his opponents who have already folded).

Unless you trust an opponent to only be playing certain specific cards in a particular situation, the best you usually can do is base the probability on the cards you actually can see.

[ QUOTE ]
So getting more money in the pot here is EV negative for you, but not enough to make folding better than calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's very easy to see how much of the fresh money going into the pot on the second betting round might belong to Hero. There are six players, Hero and his five opponents. Think of three of the players as contributing to the high half of the pot and the other three as contributing to the low half of the pot.

Think of Hero and two opponents as contributing to the high half of the pot (and the other three opponents as contributing to the low half of the pot).

Since Hero is playing for the high half of the pot, Hero's two opponents who are putting money into the same half of the pot as Hero are each contributing one dollar for each one dollar contributed by Hero. Thus Hero is getting two to one fresh money odds for his half of the pot.

Hero is also getting implied fresh money odds, since if Hero makes his spade flush on the turn he should be able to get at least two big bets additional put on his side of the pot split. So figure 6 small bets to 1 small bet as implied fresh money odds, but taking 3/4 of that (because from Hero's vantage point the board will pair on the river one time out of four), 4.5 to 1 is closer. His 4.5 to 1 implied fresh money odds are good enough for him to raise. However, if he raises, half the impled dollars apply to the call and the other half apply to the raise - and he ends up with only about 3 to 1 implied fresh money odds - and if he gets re-raised, less than that. In addition, he needs to exercise good judgement so as not to lose his potential customers.

At any rate, I think he clearly has odds to call but I don't think he wants to raise.

[ QUOTE ]
and that the board pairing will lose it for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. That's figured into the 4.5:1 implied fresh money odds. (We reduced from 6:1 to 4.5:1 because of the possibility of the board pairing on the river).

[ QUOTE ]
the 9 will split sometimes

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. The non-spade nines will split sometimes. Let's figure the three non-spade nines as worth two outs. (2.3 would be closer to the truth, but rounding to the nearest whole number is close enough.) But all right, I agree ten outs is closer than eleven outs.

Since Hero is not losing anything with a nine, just winning less, the number of non-outs is still 34. So, all right, make it 34 to 10 instead of 34 to 11.

Buzz

David BB
03-03-2005, 01:20 PM
Thanks a lot for the replies!

UTG had QJxx and the other two nut lows - so at least I got my money back! /images/graemlins/wink.gif