LIVE! 8-16 hand. AQs

[Bob T.]

After grinding out the 10,000 FPPs to clear the full tilt bonus, I decided to play a little live poker for a change.

CP 8-16 game. Wow these guys are loose and passive preflop. I don't think you can find an online .50/1.00 game this loose, or this passive, I think that most flops were seen by 6 players for one bet. The BB, and I are the two exceptions, and for the most part, we are the only preflop raisers, unless someone picks up AA, KK, or AK. So on to the hand.

I open raise in the CO with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the button a reasonable player who plays passively preflop coldcalls, the SB folds, and the BB threebets, and we both call.


Flop Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, I check, and the button checks.

Turn, 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif BB checks, I bet, the button calls, BB checkraises, and it is back to me....Your play?

[sthief09]

since you didn't bet the flop, I take that to mean you suspected the BB of trapping. if you call now, I don't think that coheres at all with the flop check.

[Shillx]

Given the protected nature of the pot, this looks like a fold to me. I would rather bet the flop though and see how he reacts. If he check/calls the flop and then check/raises a turn blank I can kiss it goodbye in a heart beat.

Brad

[chesspain]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think that coheres at all with the flop check.

[/ QUOTE ]

coheres?

[sean c]

I would have bet the flop but if he has such a monster why did he check the turn and risk it getting checked through again?

[MaxPower]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I think you should fold. The BB clearly isn't bluffing or betting a draw, since he wouldn't do that once the button calls. The check on the flop after 3-betting is extremely suspicious.

Since you opened from the CO, he should bet almost any pair on the flop. The check followed by the check-raise almost always is going to be a hand where you are drawing dead or slim.

Of course, if I can't be totaly sure of that read, I would just play cautiously and try to see a showdown as cheaply as possible.

Your opponent most likely has a set of Jacks or Queens and even then I don't like the line he took.

You were probably smelling a trap on the flop, but I would just bet anyway.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
After grinding out the 10,000 FPPs to clear the full tilt bonus, I decided to play a little live poker for a change.

CP 8-16 game. Wow these guys are loose and passive preflop. I don't think you can find an online .50/1.00 game this loose, or this passive, I think that most flops were seen by 6 players for one bet. The BB, and I are the two exceptions, and for the most part, we are the only preflop raisers, unless someone picks up AA, KK, or AK. So on to the hand.

I open raise in the CO with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the button a reasonable player who plays passively preflop coldcalls, the SB folds, and the BB threebets, and we both call.


Flop Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, I check, and the button checks.

Turn, 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif BB checks, I bet, the button calls, BB checkraises, and it is back to me....Your play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have only played 8/16 once at CP, but since I got lucky in my earlier response to Bob's AA post, I'll see if I'm runnning good.

BB clearly likes his hand, as I doubt this a bluff into 2 players. That said, if he is a thinker and recognizes hero as a TAG, he may be aware that hero's open raising standards from the CO may be rather low, and thus would 3-bet pf with a hand like AJ or KJs. That makes sense to me considering the flop check. (I suppose JJ or QQ are possible, but I think he'd have to bet this flop with 2 crubs out there and AK a possibility. Even if he didn't bet the flop with a set, once his attempt at a c/r on the flop whiffs, he'd HAVE to bet the turn.) Once the flop checks through, villain probably feels that he could very well have the best hand (or have hero's AK reverse dominated) and if the turn checks through, fine, as very few free cards hurt villain. I think he has AJ or KJ. I call the turn and the river, hoping button comes along for the fun. Button has 77-TT,or AK, by the way.

[PokerBob]

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Your opponent most likely has a set of Jacks or Queens and even then I don't like the line he took.



[/ QUOTE ]

He would have to have the patience of Job to check this hand again on the turn.

[sthief09]

yeah, does that not make sense? I'm an engineer. give me a break. I'm just the yes-man

[Bob T.]

Well, the flop check was suspicious, and I couldn't stand it after the turn check, and I bet. The button called, and then the BB checkraised. I thougt about it for a while, and decided that it felt like a slowplayed set, so I laid it down. The button called again, and the river blanked off. The BB bet, and the button folded AK. PokerBob gets at least half credit for getting the button's hand right.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, the flop check was suspicious, and I couldn't stand it after the turn check, and I bet. The button called, and then the BB checkraised. I thougt about it for a while, and decided that it felt like a slowplayed set, so I laid it down. The button called again, and the river blanked off. The BB bet, and the button folded AK. PokerBob gets at least half credit for getting the button's hand right.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a skill I am sorely lacking, as I highy doubt I could dump TPTK there. Do you call down if the pot is larger? Does not button's presence give you enough overlay to call?

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, the flop check was suspicious, and I couldn't stand it after the turn check, and I bet. The button called, and then the BB checkraised. I thougt about it for a while, and decided that it felt like a slowplayed set, so I laid it down. The button called again, and the river blanked off. The BB bet, and the button folded AK. PokerBob gets at least half credit for getting the button's hand right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume he didn't show. If the BB had just bet his hand he would have won a lot more money from you and the other guy. That would be the most deceptive way to play it.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
After grinding out the 10,000 FPPs to clear the full tilt bonus, I decided to play a little live poker for a change.

CP 8-16 game. Wow these guys are loose and passive preflop. I don't think you can find an online .50/1.00 game this loose, or this passive, I think that most flops were seen by 6 players for one bet. The BB, and I are the two exceptions, and for the most part, we are the only preflop raisers, unless someone picks up AA, KK, or AK. So on to the hand.

I open raise in the CO with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, the button a reasonable player who plays passively preflop coldcalls, the SB folds, and the BB threebets, and we both call.


Flop Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB checks, I check, and the button checks.

Turn, 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif BB checks, I bet, the button calls, BB checkraises, and it is back to me....Your play?

[/ QUOTE ]

....the more I hate this fold. When the action is back to us, the pot is 8.75 BB. To show our hand down, it will cost us likey 2 more BB's (since button is passive, that is a safe assumption IMO). Assuming button comes along occasionally, I think we can assume that, on average, we will be paying 2 BB's to win a 12 BB's. Which means we have to be good here about 16.67% of the time. I think we are. I like calling down. Blast me if I need it, but I just feel we're looking at a set less than 1 in 6 times, especially since we hold one of the set cards.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your opponent most likely has a set of Jacks or Queens and even then I don't like the line he took.



[/ QUOTE ]

He would have to have the patience of Job to check this hand again on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He probably knows that Bob would never let the turn be checked through.

[MaxPower]

I don't think calling down is bad at all. You need to be very sure of your read to make this fold.

I think that Bob can be very sure. If the BB has AJ or AQ his line makes even less sense. Bob's description tells me that the BB is a thinking player. If he wasn't then I don't think we could put him on a hand that confidently.

[gaming_mouse]

The flop check seems very wrong. Even if his 3bet standards were AA-JJ, AK in this spot, you still have:

AA - 3
KK - 6
QQ - 3
JJ - 6
AK - 12

So that you are only an 12:18 dog. But given that your raise looks like a steal, his 3-bet standards likely include a much wider range of hands, and I'd say your hand is easily good over 50% in this spot.

gm

[Bob T.]

I got to go now, but I will get back to this later. The pot odds, certainly seem to dictate a call, but I think that my opponent has a set a lot more often than 1 out of 6 times here.

[Homer315]

I agree completely. If I think the CO's open raise is a steal attempt, I'm three betting with a much wider range of hands. He might have AK himself, or AJ. Once the flop is checked through, if the BB were a thinking player, when our hero bets the turn, it might seem like a steal again, and a thinking BB might raise to get our hero to fold. I think he only does this with SOME piece of the flop though, because he probably can't rely on the button to fold to the CR as well. I think his mostly likely hands are AJ, KJ, or maybe even AQ too.

I just thought of something, it may be a little too fancy, and the turn card doesn't help the strategy, but...
What if you 3-bet the turn. If the BB is really on a CR steal, it would likely get the button to fold, and it might just get the BB to fold. If he caps, I think it's safe to fold your hand. If he just calls, I think there may be a good chance he checks the river and you can get a free showdown. You're still paying the same amount as a call/call on the river, but you might have some folding equity on the part of the BB, and you may be able to save the pot in the event you think the button has AK, and a king falls on the river. It may be FPS, but if the BB is a thinking player, it has possibilities. The big drawback to the play is why would the hero check the flop and then three bet on the turn...

[sthief09]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, the flop check was suspicious, and I couldn't stand it after the turn check, and I bet. The button called, and then the BB checkraised. I thougt about it for a while, and decided that it felt like a slowplayed set, so I laid it down. The button called again, and the river blanked off. The BB bet, and the button folded AK. PokerBob gets at least half credit for getting the button's hand right.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a skill I am sorely lacking, as I highy doubt I could dump TPTK there. Do you call down if the pot is larger? Does not button's presence give you enough overlay to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really wouldn't lose sleep over it

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree completely. If I think the CO's open raise is a steal attempt, I'm three betting with a much wider range of hands. He might have AK himself, or AJ. Once the flop is checked through, if the BB were a thinking player, when our hero bets the turn, it might seem like a steal again, and a thinking BB might raise to get our hero to fold. I think he only does this with SOME piece of the flop though, because he probably can't rely on the button to fold to the CR as well. I think his mostly likely hands are AJ, KJ, or maybe even AQ too.

I just thought of something, it may be a little too fancy, and the turn card doesn't help the strategy, but...
What if you 3-bet the turn. If the BB is really on a CR steal, it would likely get the button to fold, and it might just get the BB to fold. If he caps, I think it's safe to fold your hand. If he just calls, I think there may be a good chance he checks the river and you can get a free showdown. You're still paying the same amount as a call/call on the river, but you might have some folding equity on the part of the BB, and you may be able to save the pot in the event you think the button has AK, and a king falls on the river. It may be FPS, but if the BB is a thinking player, it has possibilities. The big drawback to the play is why would the hero check the flop and then three bet on the turn...

[/ QUOTE ]

[edtost]

"fancy play syndrome"

[Bob T.]

So that you are only an 12:18 dog. But given that your raise looks like a steal, his 3-bet standards likely include a much wider range of hands, and I'd say your hand is easily good over 50% in this spot.


Even though I might be on a steal. The button, a reasonable thinking, although passive preflop player coldcalled my raise, and is also in the pot. I think that tightens up his three betting standards again. If I had raised, and got threebet by the BB headsup. There would have been a lot of bets being put in postflop, and most likely a showdown with my hand.

The more I think about it, I think I made a mistake by not getting to a showdown here. Maybe he did three bet with AJs, and decided that since the flop was checked through that his hand was best. Maybe he got tricky with AQ, or AK of clubs. Or maybe I was right, and he had a set of jacks. Right now, it seems that there is enough doubt, that I probably should have paid him off here.

Good luck,
play well,

Bob T.