AA w/ a flop of all of the same suit that you dont have & an Ace

[Ryan527h]

Ok, this is from a real life tournament.
7-handed

I'm dealt AcAs as BB.
UTG raises 5BB, 2 Folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, SB folds, I raise to 10BB, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds.

Flop
9d10dAd

UTG checks MP1 raises about 8BB, I folded cause I was pretty sure he had the flush cause he bet 8BB last time he had the flush on the flop.

3 Questions:

What % of the time am I behind here?

What % of the time will the board pair?

In the longrun is it worth the call? (If you have no read on the guy)

[RobGW]

Your going to fill up about 1/3 of the time. When you do you'll make a lot of $$ from a made flush or even a flush draw if you hit on the turn. I don't know how you can be so sure he already has a flush. Even if he does, with 35 BB in the pot and its only 8 to you, you do have the odds to take another card.

[Phil Van Sexton]

It's hard to answer without knowing the stack sizes, but I'll try anyway.

There are 30BB in the pot, you flop top set, and fold when he bets 8BB? I don't know the answers to your percentage questions, but I think that folding is 100% wrong.

[Ryan527h]

Blinds are 5-10 First level both of us had doubled up

I have 900, he has about 950. I agree 8BB might be worth it, but this is a real life friend he is really formulated always bets 8bb on a flush, he showed his cards after and it was indeed a flush. Is it really 1/3 chance to make the boat?

If it is 1/3 to make the boat
I was getting 7:2 odds, which now that im thinking about it shouldve been an automatic call, since the boat was 3:1.

[Ryan527h]

What if he went all in?


And what about an 8BB raise if there was no ace on the flop.