Very very strange river

[JrJordan]

Villain here is everyone's favorite type of player. Loose calling station of the best sort, calling down to the river with any sort of draw (gutshot or runner runner), or anything that could make 3rd pair and possibly be a winner. Overall, me likes... so what to do on this river?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB calls.

River: (10.70 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero...

No real draws really available, except for the still possible T8 (which is actually a possibility with this guy). More likely though, it could be a very slowplayed Q, or perhaps a set coming alive on the river? Just really confused on this type of board what he could have considering this awkward line. More importantly, call or 3-bet?

[Alobar]

I would have called the flop raise and c/r the turn.

Just call the river, you arent going to be ahead anywhere near enough to make 3 betting correct

[spydog]

I don't think you can 3-bet. The BB had every opportunity to CR the turn with a Q and he didn't. His river CR looks like a boat or the dreaded, pukeworthy T8.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have called the flop raise and c/r the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

Really? This seems wrong because JT or 2 clubs can raise this flop and check behind on the turn too often, IMO. On a drawless board I like the turn CR, but not on this one.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have called the flop raise and c/r the turn.


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Really? This seems wrong because JT or 2 clubs can raise this flop and check behind on the turn too often, IMO. On a drawless board I like the turn CR, but not on this one.

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yeah, but the way the hand has been played I dont think hes trying for the free card, it looks more like hes trying to represent a Q, so I'd be pretty positive he is going to bet this turn. Even if he does have clubs or JT, he prolly still bets the turn, cuz he will think hes got good folding equity.

[JrJordan]

I had a similar thinking that with this pretty draw happy board I wanted to charge as much as I could on the flop and avoid giving a free card later should they decide to check through the turn.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? This seems wrong because JT or 2 clubs can raise this flop and check behind on the turn too often, IMO. On a drawless board I like the turn CR, but not on this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree 100%. By three-betting the flop and leading turn you are looking at 3 BB. If you pull off the turn CR, you are looking at 4, although the chances of someone folding to the CR is higher than the 3-bet and lead IMO. But the chances of the button checking behind here with a draw are way too high. This will definitely happen over 1 in 4 times. Plus, some crappy card like Kc could fall on the turn and then your whole strategy is messed up and you probably have to lead.

Not really close, IMO.

[Alobar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Really? This seems wrong because JT or 2 clubs can raise this flop and check behind on the turn too often, IMO. On a drawless board I like the turn CR, but not on this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree 100%. By three-betting the flop and leading turn you are looking at 3 BB. If you pull off the turn CR, you are looking at 4, although the chances of someone folding to the CR is higher than the 3-bet and lead IMO. But the chances of the button checking behind here with a draw are way too high. This will definitely happen over 1 in 4 times. Plus, some crappy card like Kc could fall on the turn and then your whole strategy is messed up and you probably have to lead.

Not really close, IMO.

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I think you are way over estimating the amount of times he checks through the turn, I see it happening maybe 1 time in 8. Also if some crap card like the Kc falls, you actually save money by waiting. You've also got a huge redraw against any flush or str8 that gets made on the turn.

[sam h]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you are way over estimating the amount of times he checks through the turn, I see it happening maybe 1 time in 8. Also if some crap card like the Kc falls, you actually save money by waiting. You've also got a huge redraw against any flush or str8 that gets made on the turn.

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I don't know. A draw seems pretty likely to me and with the other player in the pot as well most draws are going to get checked through here.

If a bad card falls, you might have "saved money" in some sense by waiting but that's not the point. The point is that you missed a chance to get more money in when you were way ahead and now are in a spot where if you CR then you potentially may be getting 3 bets in on the turn when behind. Even with a big redraw, this isn't a great situation.

Plus, if the CO does have a queen and a brick hits the turn, he is fairly likely to raise your turn lead and then you can 3-bet.