Bubble-ish, short stack, big decision. What do you do?

[jojobinks]

cross posted at MTT forum. not sure where i'd get more response.

Live tournament at local bar. 55 players, $100 +$25, with $50 add on. All told, 100 thousand chips in play. I've cashed the only other two times i've played here, and believe i should be playing to win. the buy-in is big for me, but not prohibitive. i don't want to sneak into the money.

12 left, in two tables of 6. The final table, the last 8, pay out. 1st place pays 45% of the $100 only, with the add on money going to "charity." So first is @$3000, and 2nd is in the neighborhood of $1500. Steep decline from there (obviously)

I have ~t5600. blinds 300/600 and a t50 ante.

folds to middle position LPP huge stack, who limps. He's made this play with any A, KQ, and the like. Cut off, an unknown with t10k, makes it 2400. the pot is T4200. Button folds.

In the small blind, I look down at A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. my image is tight, maybe even tight weak. i haven't played a hand at this table in two rounds since i've been there.

my options:
1)fold. i have t5300 left, about 1/2 the average stack. blinds and antes cost t1200 per round, which gives me not too much more time. but i could fold my way into a final table spot.
2) push. folding equity not great, with the raise being only t3200. raiser has better than 2:1, assuming the big blind and the limper fold. Big blind has me covered too, and would call with AJ and any pair bigger than 77.
3) stop and go. i have t3200 left if i just call and the big blind and limper fold, leaving me with a 50% pot-sized flop bet.
4) call with the intention of making a decision after the flop.

I made a decision. Then something happened.

What was the right move?

btw, this isn't a guessing game. i'm neither bragging about my play, nor am i hoping for sympathy. i would like to know what you'd do here, and why. Results when the flurry of responses dies down.

[Stew]

I think you have obviously analyzed your options correctly.

How good are these players post-flop? How good are you?

At this point in the tourney I don't really like calling to see the flop, unless you are the best post-flop player of the group. I really think your best play if you play the hand is to push-in.

So, your decision is probably either fold or push-in. I really think your decision hinges on your goal for the tourney. Limping to the final table probably isn't optimal play or strategy. Limping to the money (final 8) is reasonable. But, you sttated you like to play to win and don't want to sneak into the money. Given that being your focus, I think with the blinds and antes taking 1200 out per round, you should push here.

However, personally I'd fold.

[guller]

Even though you have less than 10 BB, I think I fold here. A case could probably be made to push all in but you are in a bad spot. You are caught in a sandwich between an early position limper with a "huge stack" and now effectively the button who raised 4X the BB or about half your stack, not good.

I think calling is the worst option. If you just call the huge stack could come over the top testing you both, then your hand doesn't look so good anymore.

Fold and wait for a better spot.

If the buy in is big for you, why wouldn't you want to try to sneak into the money? How small were the other stacks?

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
All told, 100 thousand chips in play.

12 left, in two tables of 6. The final table, the last 8, pay out. I have ~t5600. blinds 300/600 and a t50 ante.

folds to middle position LPP huge stack, who limps. He's made this play with any A, KQ, and the like. Cut off, an unknown with t10k, makes it 2400. the pot is T4200. Button folds.

In the small blind, I look down at A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. my image is tight, maybe even tight weak. i haven't played a hand at this table in two rounds since i've been there.

my options:
1)fold. i have t5300 left, about 1/2 the average stack. blinds and antes cost t1200 per round, which gives me not too much more time. but i could fold my way into a final table spot.
2) push. folding equity not great, with the raise being only t3200. raiser has better than 2:1, assuming the big blind and the limper fold. Big blind has me covered too, and would call with AJ and any pair bigger than 77.
3) stop and go. i have t3200 left if i just call and the big blind and limper fold, leaving me with a 50% pot-sized flop bet.
4) call with the intention of making a decision after the flop.

I made a decision. Then something happened.

What was the right move?

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, 100K chips in play with 12 players left (8,333 chips is considered an average stack at this point)

You have 5600 chips total and 350 invested into the pot already. You have a good read on the huge stack, but none on the guy with 10K, who's just invested 1/4th his stack against a chip leader limper (no other callers) and in position against the blinds.

His raise was 4x the BB, while normally I would think someone holding A/K, A/Q would bump it up 3x the BB. I'm putting your raiser on hands like J/J, 10/10 or lower. He wants those ace-draws out.

Your limping friend could have a wide range of hands as you indicated, but I think if you push here he'll fold and you can get heads-up against the initial raiser.

Since you've already stated you aren't looking to just fold your way into the money (i.e. you want one of the top 3 spots for a decent payout) then I can't see just calling here. The play is too weak and will likely result in you being up against two hands (and pot-committed with half your stack invested)

This is a push or fold situation. You said it costs 1200 per go around with the current blinds and antes. But, you are on the Small Blind, which means that the button is coming your way, giving you position.

It's likely you're either in a coin flip situation (your A/10 vs his smallish pocket pair) or you are dominated (he's got an Ace with a higher kicker, and your limper chip-leader friend may already have one of your Aces or a coin flip pocket pair)

So, a push will likely get you heads-up against the raiser (and in most cases you will be a slight underdog, perhaps even a 3:1 or 4:1 underdog possibly) Being suited is nice, if the flop comes down right.

A fold will allow you to gain position on the next hand, and the raiser may get called by the chip leader and get busted on this hand, moving you one step closer to the money.

I think I'd lay this hand down here about 80% of the time, 20% of the time just taking the chance at a coin flip and pushing all-in. But I think you can wait for a better spot (and depending on how things progress, it's likely that four others might bust before you do)

[jtr]

I'd lay it down. Completely in agreement with the analyses posted by Stew, Guller, and Grandgnu: you can find a better spot than this, and you may squeak into the money just by keeping quiet at this stage. I guess if you insist that finishing in the money means nothing to you and you want 1st/2nd place or nothing, then a push here is OK.

[smoore]

I fold this without a second thought. I just made it through the blinds and I have a barely above average hand. The limp is a weak move but I can't guarantee getting it heads up with the raiser. If I had a strong feeling that my push would put me up against the raiser then I would probably push it here 75% of the time and fold the other 25% because I'm like you, I play to win not to cash.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this without a second thought. I just made it through the blinds and I have a barely above average hand. The limp is a weak move but I can't guarantee getting it heads up with the raiser. If I had a strong feeling that my push would put me up against the raiser then I would probably push it here 75% of the time and fold the other 25% because I'm like you, I play to win not to cash.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are playing to win, then the argument for a push is stronger here.

One thing to keep in mind is that even though he has posted both his blinds, the tables are 6 handed, meaning in four hands he will have blinded and anted off another 1200 of his stack if he doesn't play a hand. '

If this were a ten-handed game a fold is clearly in order.

[RRRRICK]

I don't see any point in calling, what do you want to see on the flop?. If you hit an ace you still have to be concerned about AK,AQ,AJ and it's unlikely that your going to flop a nut flush or straight. Your more likely to flop a draw and be faced with another difficult decision post flop. So either push or fold. You are short stacked but AT is a dog against AK,AQ,AJ,AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT. If your opponent holds any pair smaller than ten's its a coinflip. Even if he hold KQ suited your not a huge favorite. If you push and get called you do so knowing that you are at best in a coin flip but more than likely well behind.