Who makes this call, 99 UTG

[tipperdog]

From tonight's Party $55. 1,100 players, about 275 left. I've been shortstacked for some time and have pushed all-in several times without being called. 3 hands ago, I doubled up on a bad beat, A4 vs. A7--the first hand I've shown down in a while. I now have about T2,300. Blinds are 100/200.

I am UTG with 99 and raise to 650. The table big stack in MP reraises the exact amount of my remaining stack. The MP chip leader is not an aggressive player; he's just picked up great hands at the right times.

The button reraises all-in, about T7,000. The button has been very aggressive, stealing and restealing a lot. The blinds fold.

What's my play?

[Frontin]

Wow, tough call...you'd be getting 3 to 1 on your remaining 1700, am I right?.

The bigstack raise to just your stack makes me think he's got AK-AJo or mid pair and wants to get you heads up..
The button I'm guessing is trying to steal with Axs.

I'd call.. if the MP folds you'd be getting 3:1 on your 99 vs any hand.

..I'm a new MTT player though. What happened?

[Ichi]

It is a tough call. I don't agree that the button is just trying to steal unless he is real aggressive and loose. He is re-raising your UTG raise and a re-raise by the chip leader. I would put one of them on AK but it seems more likely one of them has KK or AA. They have to give you credit for a hand. If it was just the button then I call but with both as much as I would hate it I would fold.

[2005]

I fold here, unless the button is a complete maniac you are a 4-1 dog heads up against him and in a 3 way pot it's just as bad.... let's say big stack has KQ and button has JJ...

orsepokenum -h 9s 9c - jh jd - kd qc
Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 9c 255092 18.61 1111599 81.09 4063 0.30 0.187
Jd Jh 614693 44.84 751998 54.86 4063 0.30 0.449
Qc Kd 496906 36.25 869785 63.45 4063 0.30 0.363

[Rushmore]

Fold here, because you're almost certainly a 4-1 dog.

I would also endeavor to avoid putting myself to such difficult decisions. Limping utg for 1/4 of your chips with 99 might not be the best play in the world. You've got about 11 bb's. You're about to leave yourself with about 6 if you muck and then go through the blinds.

Maybe we could make an argument for push or fold?

[2005]

Rush, I think you're misreading the post. Hero brought it in for 650 UTG w/ blinds of 1/2.

I think 2300 is too many chips to be in push or fold mode, so I think limping would be ok, I would also be ok with making it 500 and folding to a single raise. I find that small raises like this against the average online tourney table will win the blinds with the same frequency as a 3x raise.

GG

[Rushmore]

No, I didn't misread it.

I don't like to think of 11.5 bb's as push or fold territory either, but this particular situation might be very close, as he's putting in 28% of his chips utg with a very real possibility of being put to exactly the decision we're discussing here.

As I say, if he mucks and then whiffs through the blinds, he's left with about SIX bb's.

Blecch, right?

EDIT: Rereading your post, the idea of a smaller raise utg and mucking to a reraise is at least in the ballpark, IMO. I am not sure if I agree with your assessment about its being just as effective in picking up the blinds, but at least we're talking about holding on to enough chips to have a little play left, so I can't say I hate it.

[2005]

OK, so the way I read it, we're agreeing, but the best play is still not completely clear. I think probably either the limp and fold or the small raise and fold are right. Pushing I think is bad b/c you're risking your whole tournament to pick up a small amount of chips and if you get called you're most likely in really bad shape, or if you're lucky, it's a coin flip.

This is why I hate having these almost desperate, but not quite stacks, the range of plays you have is so limited.

Gavin

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, so the way I read it, we're agreeing, but the best play is still not completely clear. I think probably either the limp and fold or the small raise and fold are right. Pushing I think is bad b/c you're risking your whole tournament to pick up a small amount of chips and if you get called you're most likely in really bad shape, or if you're lucky, it's a coin flip.

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case, if the table has been playing aggressively, and there is little chance of an unraised pot, folding would need to be an option, right?

Maybe this furthers the argumanet for the small raise, in that bigger hands might be induced to just call along for deceptive purposes, and you at least get your chance to spike.

This, as opposed to the 3.5 bb raise, which puts more in the middle for him to try to take down with a reraise.

Or are we approaching overthinking it?

It is, after all, just a pair of nines under the gun. Maybe riding out the blinds and trying to double up over the next eight hands makes more sense.

[2005]

I guess folding does need to be an option. I think maybe it is the best one. I don't really like the limp/fold line b/c it seems too weak to me. If you're gonna limp and fold to a raise, why not just fold from the start.

I rank my choices from best to worst like this:

1. Small raise and fold to a re-raise
2. Fold
3. Limp and fold to a raise
4/5. Push/3.5BB raise and fold

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess folding does need to be an option. I think maybe it is the best one. I don't really like the limp/fold line b/c it seems too weak to me. If you're gonna limp and fold to a raise, why not just fold from the start.

I rank my choices from best to worst like this:

1. Small raise and fold to a re-raise
2. Fold
3. Limp and fold to a raise
4/5. Push/3.5BB raise and fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that limp/folding is weak.

But what does that make small raise/folding, then?

Also, I have to say that if pushing is is #4, then 3.5BB/folding should be #86.

I have no idea what the 81 options between them are.

I really becoming convinced that this is a fold.

[2005]

ok, I'm sold, fold it is.

Gavin

[freehat]

How about limping and if it raised behind you and it gets to you heads-up run a stop and go?

[2005]

Now we're definitely over-thinking it, but it's good to have options right? I guess it depends on the opponent. Another one we haven't discussed is the limp-reraise... but I think you're gonna be giving too good of odds to anybody who raises behind you to pull this one off, so I think it's out of the question.

Gavin

[Chief911]

Actually I like a bit of a weird move here. I'll many times minimum raise here. In this instance, would cost 400. If you have a decent table image, the only people who are going to reraise you in this scenario is AA, AK, KK, and maybe QQ/JJ. Alot of the time you are going to get so much respect with your min-raise, that you end up taking the blinds. Other times you may get a caller or two (Especially the BB), but they are likely to be very meek on the flop.

The idea is simply to throw people off, and gain what you want, which is the psychological advantage. I draw comparisons between this and 3-betting with any two in the 30/60 limit game on stars. It puts people back in their heels, and many are not sure how to appropriately play against it.

Worst case scenario. You get reraised, basically guarentee'ing you are behind, and fold, or you get called by the blind and maybe one other person, and its a flop with a bunch of paint. Which evevn in that scenario, people are probably scared that you have followed through and flopped your monster.

Just another option. This is obviously not a regular move you would make at any time in the tournament. But you are in a position where you hate to fold a premium hand like this, yet you are out of position, and cannot afford to have to fold a 600+ raise to multiple people.

Thoughts?

Nick

[davidross]

Easy fold for me, that's why you don't push here and give yourself an escape. I like a slightly smaller raise, maybe 500 to leave yourself a few more chips. You have plenty of chips left here to do some damage, don't throw them away in desperation.

I probably would have limped here utg given your stack size. The fold won't hurt so bad.

[tipperdog]

A very interesting discussion with a few play lines I hadn't thought of. A few thoughts before results:

1. I'm quite confident a minimum raise would not have taken down the blinds (such raises were routinely called here). So at this particular table, I don't like that option, although it might be best with a different cast of characters.

2. I didn't consider a limp at all, and perhaps I should have. I can easily call a small raise (esp. if getting last action) and reevaluate on the flop before I'm pot committed.

3. To the extent my opponents were paying attention, my table image was not strong. Remember, I'd pushed in several times in the last 20 minutes, showing down only once with A4 (and winning on a bad beat).

Anyway...I called. I figured the odds were strong that I was a 4:1 dog. The pot was offering about 3.5:1. But, I figured it was *possible* that I could be up against overs (for example, AK vs. AK or AQ (MP) vs. AK (button). It was also remotely possible that button's all-in raise might induce a fold from MP's TT or JJ (I think this would be a horrible fold, but MP had been very conservative--showing down only super-premium hands).

I called and MP called. MP held JJ and the button held AK. A third jack flopped. I picked up a gutshot on the turn, but the poker gods sent a third 9 just to taunt me with a set-under-set loss. I busted out 270th.

[2005]

That's what I was getting at earlier in the thread with the raise to 500 idea. I thought that it would win the blinds enough for it to be the right move and then Rushmore and I posted back and forth and came to the fold option as seemingly best, but my original instinct was the really small raise, so I can be re-convinced.

Gavin

[t_petrosian]

I like this line, too. Min raise from UTG looks really suspicious, unless you've been doing it before. Your position should give you the respect you want...I don't feel the raise to 650 is necessary. You still will probably get these guys coming after you as they did, but you'd save some chips. Generally, I just don't feel that the difference in raise from minraise to 650 in the UTG position changes anybody's assessment of your hand, unless they improve their assessment, because its a fishy raise. You can't do this everytime around the orbit, but maybe in the position, it's a possibility. Calling is out of the question with you still having 8X the BB...the big guy probably has a big ace and the button must have a pair that beats you. Sometimes you run into two big aces in this spot, when people play questionably (online?? no way), but even then you are a dog if one has AQ and the other has AK...granted, pot odds are in your favor, but a game theory analysis should show this is a good place to fold.

Too bad you weren't folded to on the button with that hand, eh?

[MLG]

I really like the limp stop n go here. I think 99s are too much hand to fold here, but you are gonna be made miserable no matter how much you raise.

Also, I think that there are players who a limp reraise all-in will have folding equity against, especiall if the raise is to 2.5 or 3 BBs. So, I guess I would limp and then either stop n go or push depending on who raised and the size of the raise.

[MLG]

The problem I have with minraising here, is that you are too likely to get called behind you (especially if there are a bunch of people with 20x). Confused mediocre players tend to call. I don't want to play this pot out of position with my stack.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem I have with minraising here, is that you are too likely to get called behind you (especially if there are a bunch of people with 20x). Confused mediocre players tend to call. I don't want to play this pot out of position with my stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Another problem is that there are plenty of hands a player might call with which would NOT require his being confused to do so. In other words, we begin to lose some of the actual original value of raising, which is to define your hand, knock people out, etc.

Say two of your confused types call. This makes loosish calls with speculative hands by your less confused opponents all the more appealing.

I hate it. I think the minraise is the weakest option.