Should I raise with the nut straight?

[brick]

I played a hand that got me thinking.

I'm in the BB.
A few fold and two players limp.
A new player to the table raises. This is his first hand but I know him and I know that he will do this will every hand.

The Button calls. The SB Calls.

I 3-bet with AJo because I have one of the better hands at this point.

New player caps it and everyone calls.

6 players at 4 bets each.

Flop: Kd Qh Tc

SB bets, I call ...

How important is it to raise?

I have created a spreadsheet to help analyze this situation, and similar situations.

It's called the Big Pot EV Calulator:

http://help_please1.tripod.com/

[bakku]

I have no idea what your post says, but yes.

[Argus]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what your post says, but yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody is going anywhere in this pot, and you raising does not mean they are going to fold and not give you any turn sized bets. Get your bets in before a jack falls and you have to share or something equally tragic. Keep betting every chance you get until you think someone has a better hand. Then bet some more.

[DemonDeac]

id probably call too, banking on a raise behind you from the new player who u described as aggressive. then slap him around with another raise after everyone has already cold called his raise

[Fat Nicky]

Pot is huge, big cards on the flop...it's likely someone hit the board. Raise now and get as many bets in as you can.

[scrummie2]

Agree - people will call your bets so get the most for your hand

[brick]

You're right, I wanted to 3 bet the aggressive player. It didn't work out that way.
In retrospect it's best to raise right there on the flop.
If they are going to call 1 bet, then they are probably going to call 2, which means more money for me.

The more bets I can get in ASAP the better.

[pyroponic]

Plus the pot will be bigger and they'll feel "pot-comitted."

[RED_RAIN]

Think about this. Your end goal is to get the most money out of the pot.

If you raise on the flop, likely to get reraised, and thus make people feel as if they are "pot committed".

If you call, and then get stuck inbetween or whatever on the flop, then raise on the flop if the SB bets, you have a better chance of killing your action and having people fold, that's not the point, when you have it killed, especially on a rainbow flop.

[Schizo]

[ QUOTE ]
Keep betting every chance you get until you think someone has a better hand. Then bet some more.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, I like this saying.

[sthief09]

I would not have 3-bet AJo out of position with a bunch of players in already, unless those players had shown a tendency to limp and fold

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet with AJo because I have one of the better hands at this point.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Your hand doesn't have a big equity edge in this spot. No need to build a big pot here and make things difficult for you, your hand's not THAT good.

[brick]

In general I wouldn't 3-bet here, but in this hand I had reason to believe that several of the players were holding junk and also that I was not dominated.


I can see why you would avoid 3-betting.
Out of position and my equity edge could be less if other hands happen to be more suited and more connected.


(For example, this set of hand is being generous to them...)
pokenum -h as jc - qc jh - 7d 7s - 5c 6d - kd 2s - 8h td
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Jc 136558 20.75 514664 78.22 6786 1.03 0.212
Qc Jh 104330 15.86 546892 83.11 6786 1.03 0.163
7s 7d 117910 17.92 539661 82.01 437 0.07 0.179
5c 6d 95611 14.53 561960 85.40 437 0.07 0.145
2s Kd 100701 15.30 556870 84.63 437 0.07 0.153
Td 8h 96112 14.61 561459 85.33 437 0.07 0.146

(worst case scenario)
pokenum -h as jc - qc jh - 7d 7s - 5c 6c - kd 2d - ah 4d
Holdem Hi: 658008 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Jc 85602 13.01 553230 84.08 19176 2.91 0.144
Qc Jh 108588 16.50 540881 82.20 8539 1.30 0.171
7s 7d 144727 21.99 512321 77.86 960 0.15 0.220
6c 5c 114595 17.42 542453 82.44 960 0.15 0.174
Kd 2d 131172 19.93 525876 79.92 960 0.15 0.200
4d Ah 54148 8.23 592263 90.01 11597 1.76 0.091