the world according to scalf...

[scalf]

shorted djia at 8720..completion of classic bear pattern..bearish gartley...(actually bought dia puts)..

i feel markets very weak now, but trade whtcha see, not what ya feel...jmho..info purposes only..gl /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Ray Zee]

it would seem there is more downside than upside potenial right now. so i think you did right. only i personally dont believe in that pattern crap. each day or minute should be a random event from the preceeding one based on current news for short term thinking and earnings for longer.

[scalf]

it's a percentage play...but patterns do exist; why; ??because people move their money in recurring patterns; just like they do in poker...jmho...gl /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[Wildbill]

I agree, patterns happen because of supply and demand and their interaction with predictable psychological results. Only thing to watch for is if it becomes too watched, then the pattern doesn't work. However if you look at the number that are in the market these days, they almost make the patterns happen. If there is a common pattern and it says a stock will rise up to resistance, 9 times out of 10 it will get there or very close because all the traders pile on and buy it, almost making it happen in itself.

I put in some hedge yesterday 1 minute before the close. I was almost certain today and it went almost exactly as planned. I would say about 10 times a year if you watch the pattern of a day, especially people bailing out of the market or piling into the market the last 20 minutes of trading you can almost say with certainty where the very short term direction is. People closing positions or taking them late is definitely a strong sign, especially when it contradicts the prevailing pattern of previous days. Another psychology issue I think, you have people afraid the market will gap up or down the next day and don't want to be caught going the wrong direction. Only thing that ever seems to beat it is when unexpected news comes. And sure enough, the markets read it and follow the expectation. Maybe its irrational, maybe its not based on fundamentals, but just remember that is the rules of supply and demand.

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/frown.gif quick 500 pt loss..gartley figures are not infallible, must be interpreted correctly, and when they fail, can to quick losses, but overall are strong wagers...closed out dia puts for 80% profit...j a lucky dude...gl /forums/images/icons/wink.gif