Another surprising stat

[TJD]

Continuing with my delving into PTs database. I decided to look at another number to see if it helps me in "reading".

One of the things I felt was happening at 10/20 was that if I raise preflop, I get bet into or CR much more than at other limits so I set up some conditions.

a) there had to be a single raise preflop
b) the player was NOT the one who did the raising
c) they had to see the flop (or else the rest does not work)
d) they had to bet first or raise or CR the flop

I expected to see a range of numbers and expected to be able to pick out the players who had a high % for d)/c) above and deduce that they might be the likely flop bluffers.

The shock was that I was in the top 2% with 32%! Of course as a % of my total hands I have very few where I see a raised flop when I was not the raiser. Equally, like most of you I am not likely to be a flop caller. I will either bet out, raise, CR, or give up the vast majority of the time.

The 32% figure is interesting since that is the frequency that I will hit a pair with 2 different cards. HU I am very likley to play this strong and if we add to that the str8 and flush draws and take away those times when it is multiway, I have a low pair and the action looks ugly or when I just HATE the flop AhKhTh and I have an T then we may still be around 32%.

Any thoughts about how this relates to the real game? Do others find that players are frequently taking shots. These numbers seem to indicate that it is probably fairly rare.

Comments welcomed

Trevor

[Grisgra]

Were you able to get this using standard PT, or was it customized in some way?

If it's customized, hell with this, tell me what % of the time people that raise the turn and just called the flop end up winning at showdown...

[fyodor]

All my recent hands are at 5/10 which certainly plays differently than 10/20. Most of the time someone betting, raising or c/r the flop against a preflop raiser at 5/10 indicates they have some piece of the flop.

It is not that uncommon though, for that person to lay down if I play back at them immmediately. ie they c/r me, I 3 bet and they fold. This is most likely to occur on a raggedy little flop that looks to have missed me completely.

I would think they do this more often at 10/20 (the betting etc. - not necessarily the laying down part), so I am surpirsed your stats indicate it is rare.

[TJD]

Hmm...

I don't think I said it was rare to get bet into or CR when they had a bit of the board.

In fact as I was in the top 2% with 32% it would indicate that many are NOT betting and raising with a bit of the board.

So ,what I was trying to say was that "on average" the number of bets and raises with NOTHING v a PFR was rare.

Mind you, I have had several G&T's so that is maybe what you said /images/graemlins/smile.gif hic...

T

[MAxx]

that's interesting what you are suggesting...

you are saying that you think it is possible that the bluff flop c/r doenst happen as much as i think it happens.

damn dude, i think i need to run by the liquor store after that little G&T comment.

[Zele]

The G&T is the quintessential British drink:

Take ten of the world's bitterest herbs, ferment and distill, then add quinine. Mmmmm.

That said, I'm gonna enjoy me some yummy Clamato and Stroh's tonight. God bless the USA!

Edit: That stat is serious food for thought.

[MAxx]

I assumed that G&T= Gin and Tonic. but the way you describe it makes me think it could be something else. anyway, when i saw the phrase G&T my mind told me: insert drink of choice. So being the dirty southerner that I am, i inserted bourbon & coke.

[fyodor]

Obviously I have a hard time saying what I mean.

Because I have seen players checkraise me on the flop after I was the preflop raiser, and subsequently lay down to my 3 bet, I assume they were taking a shot with nothing. I have seen this a fair amount and that was at the 5/10. I would think they do it more at the 10/20.

So I am surprised your stats indicate that taking shots in your described situation at 10/20 is rare.

[fyodor]

Yes G&T is gin and tonic and yes that is what Zele was describing. G&T is one of my favourites but I will drink gin with just about anything or just straight up or whatever. As long as it is a decent gin. Stay away from Gilby's.

[witeknite]

Ah, that was my drink of choice as well until I went low-carb. Now it's just bourbon and soda or just on ice if it's the good stuff. What part of the south are you from?

WiteKnite