imported_transmitt
02-25-2005, 10:11 AM
Theory of poker, pg. 99-100
There is $60 in the pot, with one card to come. If you bet,
you figure the odds against your opponent folding are 4:1.
You are 7:3 against improving to the best hand on the next
card.
So, by my calculations, if I check and call, I will win the
$60 in the pot plus $20 more at the end 30 times out of 100, and lose $20 70 times out of 100. Or $2400 - $1400 for a net
gain of $1000.
On the other hand, if I semi-bluff, I'll win the $60 in the
pot 20 times out of 100 when my opponent folds. If he calls
me, I'll win $80 24 times and lose $20 56. This works out
to a total net profit of $2000.
So, when I check-call, I win $1000
When I semi-bluff, I win $2000
The book says that I win $200 more by semi-bluffing than
I would by checking. Obviously I've made a mistake
somewhere in my first calculation, but I can't seem to
find it. I would appreciate it if you would point me
in the right direction.
Thanks,
transmitt
There is $60 in the pot, with one card to come. If you bet,
you figure the odds against your opponent folding are 4:1.
You are 7:3 against improving to the best hand on the next
card.
So, by my calculations, if I check and call, I will win the
$60 in the pot plus $20 more at the end 30 times out of 100, and lose $20 70 times out of 100. Or $2400 - $1400 for a net
gain of $1000.
On the other hand, if I semi-bluff, I'll win the $60 in the
pot 20 times out of 100 when my opponent folds. If he calls
me, I'll win $80 24 times and lose $20 56. This works out
to a total net profit of $2000.
So, when I check-call, I win $1000
When I semi-bluff, I win $2000
The book says that I win $200 more by semi-bluffing than
I would by checking. Obviously I've made a mistake
somewhere in my first calculation, but I can't seem to
find it. I would appreciate it if you would point me
in the right direction.
Thanks,
transmitt