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View Full Version : Question about example in "Theory of Poker"


imported_transmitt
02-25-2005, 10:11 AM
Theory of poker, pg. 99-100

There is $60 in the pot, with one card to come. If you bet,
you figure the odds against your opponent folding are 4:1.
You are 7:3 against improving to the best hand on the next
card.

So, by my calculations, if I check and call, I will win the
$60 in the pot plus $20 more at the end 30 times out of 100, and lose $20 70 times out of 100. Or $2400 - $1400 for a net
gain of $1000.

On the other hand, if I semi-bluff, I'll win the $60 in the
pot 20 times out of 100 when my opponent folds. If he calls
me, I'll win $80 24 times and lose $20 56. This works out
to a total net profit of $2000.

So, when I check-call, I win $1000
When I semi-bluff, I win $2000

The book says that I win $200 more by semi-bluffing than
I would by checking. Obviously I've made a mistake
somewhere in my first calculation, but I can't seem to
find it. I would appreciate it if you would point me
in the right direction.

Thanks,
transmitt

Paul2432
02-25-2005, 10:35 AM
This example is on page 93 in my copy. Your error is that you misread the problem (at least as stated in my copy). Sklansky says to assume that if you check, your opponent will check, and that there will be no bets on then end.

Then checking gives you (3/10)*60*100 = 1800, which is 200 less than 2000.

Paul

imported_transmitt
02-25-2005, 10:45 AM
Oh, I see. Thank you very much

- transmitt