UTG short stacked and long odds against

[ChrisV]

This is a situation that has been coming up more frequently for me lately on the 200's. I happen to believe that the 200's are actually getting tighter. I may be imagining this.

Anyway, the situation should be familiar to everyone. You're UTG with a stack that has fold equity now but won't after the blinds, say 7-800 at 100/200.

Whats the worst hand that you push....

4 handed?
5 handed?
6 handed?
7 handed?
8 handed?
9 handed?
10 handed? (and yes, God help us all, I have been 10 handed at Level 5 recently)

I have trouble picking the right action because it can't be analysed very easily, and you don't get feedback from the results because you're usually screwed whatever you do.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]

10 handed? (and yes, God help us all, I have been 10 handed at Level 5 recently)


[/ QUOTE ]

I guess Jesus has hard time beating rake in this game. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This is definitely a good question in general, but if there are 10 people left, there is no way I am pushing anytwo here.

I am curious what others think too.

[Gramps]

I don't know about exact answers - I think observing the person to your right (who will be the BB in hands where you're UTG and about to lose fold equity) has a lot of value in these spots. For example, whenever I see someone make a fold from the BB where I'd call with any two, I make a note, etc. This is who I want to be pushing on with my short stack. Somebody bitches in chat about another person making an obvious pot odds call...I make a note, etc. The number one factor that effects your odds of getting called is the BB's looseness/tightness/how he perceives you in particular and your pushing standards under the circumstances.

How loose/reckless is the whole rest of the table - how many all-ins have been called, how many people are pushing? There's tables/spots where I'd push any two, yet at another table/spot I'd only push top 1/3 or 1/4. Depends, depends, depends.

I've gotten a bit tighter in these spots later when it's close to a full table. Maybe I'm just getting called too much. The more people there are, not only are you generally more likely to get called, but you'll have more hands per orbit to choose from to make your move.

Oh yeah, and I thought the play was getting better in the 215s overall until the last couple of days. Seems like half the people at my tables are complete reckless idiots with no clue. God bless PP and skins (now if I could just suck out more...)

[curtains]

The odds against you aren't that long in this situation!

[nokona13]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh yeah, and I thought the play was getting better in the 215s overall until the last couple of days. Seems like half the people at my tables are complete reckless idiots with no clue. God bless PP and skins (now if I could just suck out more...)

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me just say I've been observing the high limit games when I can (I try for the $500s, but they're not always going). Yesterday I saw an EP limper call a big raise from MP, see like a 45Jr flop, and end up all in on the turn, where he flipped over 64o. That same table had 4 gone during level 2, all on incredibly stupid play. And there was another pure idiot who sucked out once or twice and was still there with a big stack... So there's idiots everywhere.

As to the original question, I've found on 22s-33s that I get called a LOT from UTG with 7+ players left, so I definitely dont' push any two unless the table is just full of rocks. I'd say UTG with 7+ left, I'm staying pretty tight, say 66+, A7+, KTs+, KJ+, maybe QJs, JTs? Is that way too tight?

[ChrisV]

I really don't know. I tend to go a bit looser than this - any pair, KTo, K9s, but maybe this is suicidal.

[ChrisV]

There are still idiots around of course, they're just in lower proportion. Check this guy out. I guarantee you'd know the name if I left it in, but I'll be polite and strip it out /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Hero is BB with 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
(3 folds)
Villain raises [60].
(1 fold)
Hero calls [30].
** Dealing Flop ** [ T /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif ] ($75, two players)
Hero checks.
Villain checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif ]
Hero checks.
Villain checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif ]
Hero is all-In [3125]
Villain is all-In [1375]
Hero shows 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif (a straight, two to six)
Villain shows 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif (a straight, ace to five)
Villain finished in sixth place.

Hehe. I knew my man.

To fold straights is to be in GREAT PAIN.

[eastbay]

It's a good question and something I struggle with as well, although I feel as though maybe once you're there, it doesn't matter all that much as there aren't any big edges or big disasters left anyway (unless you do something really stupid like fold a good hand.)

Let me just play with some numbers here, just because I can:

Let's start 4-handed. 800 UTG, mostly even stacks. Calling standards for BTN and SB are 55+,A6+. and a little looser down to 22+,A2+,KT+ for BB.

Your fold equity has to be discounted here from $211. Taking a big blind out of your stack leaves you with $168, and that might be a high estimate with the SB coming next. A push here with 32o is worth ~$200, and I think you almost certainly have to take it.

Let's do the same thing 5-handed. Equity is $186/$146. Now a push with 32o is worth $167. I think you might take it here if there was no chance that you could be folded the blinds next hand, but the more passive the game, the more you tend to folding. Q7o is worth $178 here, which I think you have to take.

It's a crap place to be, that's for sure.

eastbay

[Gramps]

You're man made the right play here. With your big stack, you're bluffing like 2/3 of the time just trying to pick up a pot without having to show down the best hand. I'm tired of "results-oriented thinking" in this forum... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[stripsqueez]

i push K10o, K9s in this spot a lot of the time so i dont think its suicidal

i dont like to push with crap in the cutoff or on the button when there are still lots of guys left in this situation - i also dont like to push if the blinds are about to go up - other than that it ranges down to bigger garbage than mentioned

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[bball904]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a good question and something I struggle with as well, although I feel as though maybe once you're there, it doesn't matter all that much as there aren't any big edges or big disasters left anyway (unless you do something really stupid like fold a good hand.)

Let me just play with some numbers here, just because I can:

Let's start 4-handed. 800 UTG, mostly even stacks. Calling standards for BTN and SB are 55+,A6+. and a little looser down to 22+,A2+,KT+ for BB.

Your fold equity has to be discounted here from $211. Taking a big blind out of your stack leaves you with $168, and that might be a high estimate with the SB coming next. A push here with 32o is worth ~$200, and I think you almost certainly have to take it.

Let's do the same thing 5-handed. Equity is $186/$146. Now a push with 32o is worth $167. I think you might take it here if there was no chance that you could be folded the blinds next hand, but the more passive the game, the more you tend to folding. Q7o is worth $178 here, which I think you have to take.

It's a crap place to be, that's for sure.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with pushing any 2 4 handed or 5 handed. The exception would be if there is another player 4 handed or 2 others 5 handed that are also short stacked making the money close. 6 handed or more, I'm looking for a hand to double up with more than stealing the blinds and need a good hand here.