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View Full Version : Folding AA on the river for one bet in big pot

billyjex
02-25-2005, 07:02 AM
Juicy bad beat jackpot table.

I don't have any real PT data on the table. No reads on main villian really, he seemed straightforward in his play from a few orbits but I'm multitabling and not exactly looking him up every hand.

His bet out on the river *screamed* a K to me. If it was HU, I would call everytime. 3-handed, maybe. But with two left to act, I'm folding. Thoughts?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (8.40 SB) K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.20 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls, Button calls, BB calls.

River: (12.20 BB) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds..
Elbie
02-25-2005, 07:17 AM
I think that the fold is correct. I also think that the reason you gave is the correct one. BBs bet into 3 players means he has a K (also his flop bet suggests that)
K C
02-25-2005, 07:30 AM
Maybe he's got the 3 kings, maybe he doesn't. Exactly how sure are you that he's got them? Assume this happens 10 times, would you think that you would win at least one of them? I would think so, and your chances are better than that actually I'd say. You're getting 12:1 on your call, so you need to be calling here with this, win or lose.

KC
kingcobrapoker.com
The-Matador
02-25-2005, 07:39 AM
I would be betting out with a Q on this flop and this river, so I'd be making you fold the best hand.
applej25
02-25-2005, 07:44 AM
I think you made the correct fold. Even if he doesnt have the King, chances are someone behind you does and will raise.
billyjex
02-25-2005, 07:44 AM
Good for you.

But look at the hand.

This guy seems straight forward. I have two people behind me who coldcalled two bets on the flop. Top pair has now paired and I'm not closing the action.

I don't even think I'm ahead 1 in 12 times.
Elbie
02-25-2005, 07:55 AM
I wouldn´t mind folding and losing to a player capable of that move /images/graemlins/wink.gif
The-Matador
02-25-2005, 07:55 AM
Well then okay keep folding then.

Wtf do you want me to do? Mollycoddle you to make you feel better about folding your aces? Atta go Phil.

I think you effed it up, plain and simple.
Noodles
02-25-2005, 08:20 AM
[ QUOTE ]
would be betting out with a Q on this flop and this river, so I'd be making you fold the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
then you are wasting chips especially on the river,you bet into the pfr and 2 caller and expect to take this pot?
private joker
02-25-2005, 08:32 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I think you made the correct fold. Even if he doesnt have the King, chances are someone behind you does and will raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? The fact that a second king popped up makes it *less* likely that an opponent has one. It's not like the deck is growing kings all day. Yes, people make trips, but people also use paired boards as scare cards to bet with. How often? Often enough to make calling profitable I think. Hero might not be good more than 10% of the time, but the pot is big enough to give him an overlay if he is good 1 in 10.

As for the other guys behind, if you're worried about them you can fold to a raise or you can call a raise. But how'd you like to see both of them fold after you do, and BB doesn't even show his hand?
applej25
02-25-2005, 09:26 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Really? The fact that a second king popped up makes it *less* likely that an opponent has one. It's not like the deck is growing kings all day. Yes, people make trips, but people also use paired boards as scare cards to bet with. How often? Often enough to make calling profitable I think. Hero might not be good more than 10% of the time, but the pot is big enough to give him an overlay if he is good 1 in 10.

As for the other guys behind, if you're worried about them you can fold to a raise or you can call a raise. But how'd you like to see both of them fold after you do, and BB doesn't even show his hand?




[/ QUOTE ]

So you think when first to act bets into the preflop reaiser, and then two others call two bets cold that not one of them flopped top pair?

Call this all you want on the river out of position but I think this is a fold. People love to over value Big unimproved pocket pairs. What do you think BB is coming back alive with here on the river? Its plain as day.

Its simple, closing the action its an easy call. With two to act behind, not so.
emil3000
02-25-2005, 09:37 AM
I think this is a pretty bad fold. People don't just coma alive with trips, they also come alive with second pair on this board. I'd call and fold to a raise behind me.
QTip
02-25-2005, 09:55 AM
Agreed. Doesn't need to be bluffing that often to make calling him correct in this pot.