everyone talks about the check raise...

[jailhousejoe]

I've been at the table no more than 1-2 orbits, and no reads, though none of them have appeared to be bad players.

Live 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: (3.5 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks,<font color="red"> MP1 bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue"> (3 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks,<font color="red"> MP1 bets</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls.

MP1 really thinks about this _hard_ and makes a crying call

River: (7.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero.. ??

I wanted opinions on a few things here.

1 - Lots of people are talking about how the average small-stakes player loves to check-raise the turn when they make their hand. Can i rely on this supposition to add value to my turn check/raise semi-bluffs? How reliable is this information?

2 - Whats my plan on the river for the situations when one of my outs doesnt hit, and the river turns out to be non-scary? Check/fold seems correct.. what are the chances that a continued show of strength on the river will cause a fold?

[Shillx]

Bet the flop.

Brad

[The-Matador]

You bet again.

[jb9]

I think you should bet the river and fold to a raise.

If MP1 was drawing and missed, he'll probably fold if you bet (and maybe he was drawing with QT, so it will be real nice if he folds). It's also possible that he'll fold a pair of Jacks if your turn checkraise convinced him you had an 8.

If you don't bet, he almost certainly will (unless he is really afraid of another checkraise, but his hand probably beats you anyway, so having it check to showdown doesn't help you).

I'm not too sure about the long term value of turn check-raise semi bluffs. I might let someone do that to me once, but next time they'd have to show me their cards, so I wouldn't suggest over doing it -- do it once as a semi-bluff, next time do it with a big hand -- if you are playing me, you might beat me both ways...

[jackdaniels]

If you like money, you have to bet this river. The only way you win here is betting the river.

You have to put yourself in his shoes - he prolly thinks you spiked trips with that second 8 or have a better Jakc than him. If you bet here and get called, it will only be by a good Jack, no PFR makes me think he doesn't have that good of a Jack and since you were in the BB and saw flop for free, he has to put you on "any 2" including a better Jack but likely some kind if 8. Betting this river gives you a chance of winning the pot - and his crying call prolly means he is trying to convince himslef you have a better Jack (rather than trips) and he is hoping to spike his kicker (for a better 2 pair). when that doesn't materialize villain folds to another bet here at least 25% of the time.

[sean c]

Bet or fold to a bet on the flop. The turn check raise is spewing chips.

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet or fold to a bet on the flop. The turn check raise is spewing chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But based on the action to this point. Bet the river. You can't check it here. (Fold to a raise)

[TMFS9]

The turn semi bluff is a solid play if villan will lay down a pair here. Probably not a jack but possibly a mid pocket pair like 9's or so is more likely. The river is a little tricky, If villan has the jack and called the turn check raise he's probably calling the last bet on the river, but on the other hand it would sure suck if he won with something like a king high. If villan is the type of player that will bet with draws and the like i think a bet on the river will fold enough hands that beat you to be profitable. But if he's the type of player that will only bet "made" hands I would probably check it.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet or fold to a bet on the flop. The turn check raise is spewing chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But based on the action to this point. Bet the river. You can't check it here. (Fold to a raise)

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably. Has to get villain to lay his hand down 10% to make a river bet +EV. What a poorly played hand though.