One of those bubble things

[kdotsky]

This is a $50...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t3475)
UTG (t7685)
Button (t955)
Hero (t1385)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1385</font>

I don't think I like this play anymore. I just have to outlast the shortstack, I don't have much(any) folding equity, and it's probably a coinflip.

So, do we agree I should have folded?

[curtains]

I would fold

[Seadood228]

I hate folding, but it appears to be the right play. Even if you had 1000 more chips I couldn't move in, although calling now becomes an option.

[BillyKGB]

im no pro, so I have a Q:
is there any other reason to fold except the ITM-issue?

since my plan is to win id like to get some decent opportunities to double up facing that giant stack..
but I know that a coinflip might not be that opportunity Im looking for..

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
is there any other reason to fold except the ITM-issue?

since my plan is to win id like to get some decent opportunities to double up facing that giant stack..
but I know that a coinflip might not be that opportunity Im looking for..

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not an ITM thing, it's a EV thing.

Of course we all want to win, but that doesn't happen every time.

Are you implying that you'd rather have a 20%-5%-5% 1st-2nd-3rd split than a 15%-15%-15% one? That's insane. We base our decisions on the chance to make more money, not on the chance of winning the SNG. If your ONLY goal is to win, yes, pushing is clearly correct here.

[ QUOTE ]
but I know that a coinflip might not be that opportunity Im looking for..

[/ QUOTE ]

And FWIW, a coinflip with a little overlay (the big blind) is about as good a Chip-EV situation you can really hope for with that small a stack at the end of these things.

Now as far as the original question, it's hard to really do any calculations on a situation like this. It's very player dependent, and unless you've played a ton of SNGs with UTG, it's hard to know what the correct play is. Clearly, if you knew UTG had overcards, and you knew he'd call a push, it's a fold.

Though I've seen a lot of big stacks min-raise almost every hand, then fold to signs of aggression since "you must have something huge" if you're pushing back at them with your precarious 3rd place stack. Whether their folds are correct is another story, but it's not that uncommon of a thing from the big stacks at the $55 level. If you thought that UTG might fold 30% of the time here, a push could be in order. (30% is a guess, we could figure out the exact number needed if we wanted to, but it's not really relevant.)

Having said that, I think I'd still lean toward a fold, but I could be convinced otherwise given a gtrong read on UTG. If you were smaller than the 4th place stack, I believe a stop and go would be correct here.