flopped set on monotone board

[gumpzilla]

It's the first hand of a $20+2 at Paradise, blinds 5/10. I pick up 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif in MP and limp. Immediately behind me it is raised to 50 and folded around to me. I call.

Flop: (pot = 115) J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
I bet 80, get reraised to 200 or so, I push.

Thoughts?

[Elektrik]

I do the same here.

[curtains]

The postflop decision is correct and I don't think its close, however I would fold before the flop.

(I mean Id fold after the raise to 50)

[ReDeYES88]

I think you're ahead. That bet doesn't smell like he has the flush, but probably has top pair, overpair, or two overs and he didn't like seeing the monotone even more than you. What are his odds of flopping a flush? 119:1?

That said, I bet you didn't push him off of the hand.

You put him to the test with a push, and you have a 33% chance of filling up if he does call. It takes a bigger man than me to muck a flopped set in this case. If I bust with a set, so be it.

Nice play.

[gumpzilla]

I'm pretty sure I'm ahead here too, which to me is the interesting issue. Given that I decided to stick around with only the PF raiser when I called, I really need to be getting a substantial portion of his stack when I hit my sets to make it a decent play.

This is a pretty horrendous board for trying to extract the maximum for a set; I led out with a 3/4 pot bet hoping he'd think I was making a bluff at a scary board, so the reraise was exactly what I wanted. Ideally I'd then call and try to induce a bet on the turn, and then come over the top, but this board just seemed too scary; it's too likely that he either has a draw that could beat me, or if he doesn't, that a scare card will prevent me from extracting more on the turn anyway. Thus, I pushed. The more I think about it the more I'm confident that I'm right.

However, I think I'd play fairly similarly on a two-tone board, where I think the conventional wisdom is that if you're giving him the wrong price you want him to call with that flush draw. In these situations, I'm usually more interested in winning what is already a fairly decent pot than trying to get as much as possible out of the set with more risk. Perhaps this is a leak.

[gumpzilla]

What circumstances would have to change before you'd call this raise? More callers? Smaller raise?

[curtains]

Yes, both of those circumstances are important. With just one more caller, calling is quite reasonable. If the raise was to 35, also I think you should call.
This is why it's important to not make smallish raises early in sit and go's as you usually don't want a good player calling you with 77 when you have AA or KK.

[octaveshift]

Against a random hand, you are 80.5% favorite to win this.

Throw an (offsuit) ace into your opponent's hand and it actually rises(!) to 88.5%.

Add a single suited card, and it drops to 64.2%.

I push this without a second thought.

[gumpzilla]

I'm interested that it seems like many people think that I was unclear about whether pushing was a good idea because I thought I was behind. I was more curious about whether I should take the chance and give a turn here, hoping to get more out of my opponent.

Anyhow, I pushed, he thought for about 20 seconds, griped about the flop and folded. An overpair had seemed like probably the most likely holding to me; he said he had two black queens, which made a lot of sense given the way things went.

[Elektrik]

The reason you push is that in case he does have a diamond, you don't give him a cheap chance to outdraw you. I'm pretty sure it's not worth taking the chance for the amount of extra chips you'd usually get.