What % (roughly) of the time am I behind here?

[Gramps]

Party/Empire $215 NL SNG. If suits don't show up on this post (doesn't look like they are), it was a rainbow flop and flush draw out there on Turn. Only read I have is that MP1 is a bit loose/reckless, but not extremely so.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t1070)
Hero (t1000)
CO (t1000)
Button (t990)
SB (t940)
BB (t1000)
UTG (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1000)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls t15, MP2 calls t15, Hero calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t15, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t105) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (t105) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t100</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t200</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t400</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero...</font>

I'm not much worried about BB - seems like a big bet for T9. MP1 and MP2 sure seem to like their hands, but a lot of players dont' play T9 in MP...but the betting action seems to say it's out there...

...what % of the time is T9 (or a slowplayed KK or JJ) out there do you think? Go to war or get the f--- out of the way?

[curtains]

I really don't know. I don't have hands with such weird action so often at the $215s....I don't know what to think here.

[willie]

a good percentage of the time facing that action

i rule out kk, but jj is POSSIBLE

it might seem kind of weak tight, but you have 15 chips invested, a free card peeled off into like an 8 way pot and rigorous betting ensued.

i'd likie to think that i'm good enough to fold here...but i can NOT lay down a set...i don't know why, but i really can't

you're probably smoked here though.

[Big Limpin']

I'm not really giddy to get chips into this hand, but i think the likelyhood of pair/draw (either str8 of flush) hands paying is prett good.

My gut says you are more likely than not to have the best MADE hand now. But having 3 villains, i guess upwards of half the deck kills you.


FWIW though, i play 3 levels below you.

[AtticusFinch]

I strongly doubt you're behind at this point, but there are many worrisome draws out there. I would push and let the chips fall where they may (to coin a phrase). Even if you're already behind you most likely have 10 outs.

[ZhenRen]

you are almost always behind here

[Ryan527h]

The way I look at it is that there is no way someone is playing KK, possibly JJ, but I think JJ would atleast raise 3-4x BB when entering this pot. I don't think you are behind, I think the worst you are facing is someone with both straight and flush draw, then maybe someone with two pair, or top pair and either straight or flush draw. I think you aren't behind that often with this hand.