No limit betting error

[Chris Nichelson]

In the recent book by Andrew Bellin, the author/hero makes a significant turn error in a no limit pot.

Six handed, with at least everyone in for $20,and the author on the button, the author calls a $100 bet on the flop into a now $350 pot with four to a straight and four to a flush (How I would love to play in a no limit game like this one in NY...) 8c9c in his hand with 6h7cKc on the flop. He then turns the 5d with two opponents who check to him. He only bets $50.

How much should he have bet?

[Lurker]

How much $ did he have left in front of him? I would not want any more clubs to come out, that's for sure. I'd put at least one of those opponents on a flush draw, for the one made a weak bet and then checked the turn, and the other smooth-called the flop and also checked the turn. I would have bet pot, or gone all-in for a little more if I didn't have much more than the pot left in front of me.

I probably would have raised the underbet otf, too, as I would have position and a good draw, hoping to take it down. Of course, I play in games about 1/50th of this size so a reraise in this situation for me would be significantly cheaper /forums/images/icons/wink.gif .

L

[Chris Nichelson]

or at least one of them had at least as much.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

$450 in the pot, and players have about $1000 each in front of them? I would bet about $350 and hope somebody raises me.

Unless I thought one of them was stubborn enough, in which case I might go all-in. But, not very likely of a move for me. I hate overbetting the pot in a cash game, and don't like it that much in a tourney.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[TAFKAn]

This sounds like a hell of a game. "At least everybody in on the flop for $20". WOW! awesome.

The author made a catastrophic mistake on the flop and followed it up with a bone-head move on the turn.

You say he calls $100 on the flop after the pot got to be $350.
If "at least" everyone (how could there be more than everyone) was in for $20, that's $200 on the flop.
In order for there to be $350, someone had to bet $50, get raised $50, and now it's $100 cold to the author and he can't close the action.

I think he has two choices, go all-in or fold.

What's happening on the flop? The first bettor is almost certainly on a draw. Underbetting the pot by such a large margin from early position indicates the flush draw in my experience. This guy wants to the see the turn but doesn't want to pay very much for it. If he had a big hand he'd either check-raise or bet more.

It's very likely that the $100 raiser has a flush draw or a even more likely a weak hand that fears the flush draw. He doesn't want to overcommit but knows he needs to raise here. He probably plays too much limit hold'em. It'll be $50 back to the bettor, for a pot of $350, with stacks of $1000 to back it up. I wouldn't even fold bottom pair bottom kicker here. That $50 raise is absolutely useless unless he has the nuts and has somehow read another player for being really strong and is hoping to induce action.

So if the author moves all-in for his $1000, I expect him to take it down. At the very least, if one of the other players actually did have a big hand, he can push out the other (likely) flush draw and pick up more outs. The chance of winning here (which is high) plus the chance of drawing out make this a winning play for the $350.

Calling is the worst play because by just calling, his is opening himself up to the possibility of drawing to the small flush and getting there. That is a HUGE disaster in this game. If he moves all in, his flush outs are probably good. If he calls, he's more vulnerable to a bigger flush draw and the action so far points to one being out there.

Lastly, by just calling, he is letting the first bettor push him out. He cannot call for the rest of his stack if the first bettor moves in now. The call on the flop is worse than folding.

What's happening on the turn?

The pot is $500 and nobody bets. It looks for all the world like the two bettors are not happy with their hands and have no desire to "protect" something that is strong. One has a draw and the other has a weak top pair probably, but could also have the same draw. There could be three flush draws here.

Betting $50 on the turn is a losing play. It may be the worst possible play. A check would be better in this spot. If the author checks and then faces a huge river bet after the flush comes, he can safely fold. If he checks and the river is a blank, it might induce someone to buy it if they think he was on a draw too, which is what a turn check will look like. A turn check may also induce someone with a marginal hand to call him down on a non-flushcard river since they might think that HE is trying to buy it with a busted draw.

Betting the $50 is just stupid. They cannot fold if they have any kind of hand or draw. It is a terrible, terrible value bet and does very little to set up the river for any kind of play.

Since the author has the nuts, and is almost certainly facing a higher flush draw than his, he needs to at least bet the pot here. The pot is big enough that he doesn't mind winning it now. He played terribly on the flop and now made the nuts so taking it down is fine. I would overbet the pot, possibly going all-in, so that I am happy no matter what happens. $700 ought to do it.

[Ignatius]

You should give more details (positions, exact preflop- and flop-action) as without this information, it's hard to put your opponents on a hand. I assume a flop pot size of $120 and a turn pot size of $450 w/ everyone having $900 left.

Anyway, let's see: you have the current nuts and a worthless flush-draw as backup (any other flush draw out there figures to be better than 9-high) and it is checked to you.

Since I would be committed to call the river no matter what, my bet would have to be big enough to deny a better flush draw the correct implied odds to call. The minimum bet size therefor is

x/($450+$900+x) = 7/44 --> x = $255.4

I would bet $300 to make it look like a pick-up bet, give flush-draws incorrect odds and create the impression the I might be willing to muck for a check-raise.

cu

Ignatius