Sklanksy AK hand, let's discuss...

[That guy]

Blinds: $3k/$6k Antes: $1k
Pot Before any Betting: $14k

Stack sizes aren't stated but Sklansky definitely has Cloutier out-chipped by about 2-1. The last time shown, Sklansky has $342k and Cloutier $165k. Since then, neither were involved in any of the televised pots so they are probably something similar.


5-Handed

Sklansky is UTG holding A/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Raises $20k.

Pot: $34k

Hellmuth, Caro, Brunson fold

Cloutier in BB holds A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifQ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Raises $74k
Pot: $108k

Sklansky has $60k to call. Thinks and folds.

I don't remember ever seeing anyone muck AK on the WPT in any circumstance so this hand is interesting. Clearly, since he won the event, he didn't need it.

comments?

[jojobinks]

senor sklansky's response: what he was thinking (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1799103&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1)

i agree, i've never seen anyone pass on ak preflop in the face of aggression in a wpt event. i hated it at the time, but like it more and more as i think about it.

[toots]

I think it's especially daring. I mean, he had to know how much heat he was going to be taking for it in his own back yard.

[That guy]

This situation comes up all the time in my online tourneys.

In TPFAP, in the segment on AK (p 115-119):
"The best time to move in with ace-king is when moving in is betting two to five times the size of the pot."

Since TJ has ~$150k left, with the pot at $94k, Sklansky could move all-in for (150k) / 94 = ~1.6x.

A clarification is needed on the book I think. Is the reference in the book to only times where you are betting 2-5x the size the blinds?? or is it also for times when you have been re-raised?

In this case, TJ has put ~40% of his stack in already... He looks pot-committed. If he has any pair, David will be the underdog but he is getting a little overlay to do it.

Last paragraph of the segment is:
"if you do choose to move in with most of your ace-kings, you are choosing to play a style that can get you broke instantly. That goes against some general precepts of tournament play. So don't do it if you know you are the best player, and your chips are many times the size of the pot."

[wins_pot]

correct play there is to move all-in, end of story. sklansky discusses his reasons for not calling, but not his reasons for not moving all-in. ex ante prob that someone has AA or KK in a six-handed game (my recollection is that it was 6handed at the time) is about 5.5% if you don't hold AK,more like 3.5% if you do. connditional on TJ reraising a tight player (david), the prob that he has AA or KK is in the 5-15% range. Against KK, david is a 7 to 3 dog, against aces he's obviously bad off.
my estimates are
7% he has aces. you're in bad shape
7% he has kings. you're 30%
20% has has AK. split it up
20% has has AQ. you're 75% or so
66% he has a pair, QQ or lower. here you're a dog, but since you still have a health stack if you lose, you call on pot odds.
i push here.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
correct play there is to move all-in, end of story. sklansky discusses his reasons for not calling, but not his reasons for not moving all-in. ex ante prob that someone has AA or KK in a six-handed game (my recollection is that it was 6handed at the time) is about 5.5% if you don't hold AK,more like 3.5% if you do. connditional on TJ reraising a tight player (david), the prob that he has AA or KK is in the 5-15% range. Against KK, david is a 7 to 3 dog, against aces he's obviously bad off.
my estimates are
7% he has aces. you're in bad shape
7% he has kings. you're 30%
20% has has AK. split it up
20% has has AQ. you're 75% or so
66% he has a pair, QQ or lower. here you're a dog, but since you still have a health stack if you lose, you call on pot odds.
i push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have failed to consider quite a few things. Number one is the chips that David would have lost if he lost the hand. It happens that TJ happened to have the one and only holding with which you wanted him to have which is AQ. Even if TJ has QQ or any pocket pair below that and pot odds warrant a call (which is correct). Pot odds do not speak to the fact that you may lose the hand and lose half your stack. There is something to be said for passing up small edges. However, keep in mind, AK does not have a small edge against any other pocket pair, it's a small dog. TJ just happened to have the one and probably only one hand that TJ would play in this manner in which David had a huge edge.

BTW, just b/c we haven't seen anyone lay down AK pre-flop in any WPT event doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Remember, these shows represent an hour and a half or so or what is sometimes 6-7 hours worth of live action.

[Shaun]

He couldn't win the tournament on that hand, and let's face it, when TJ Cloutier is re-raising me and I'm David Sklansky and hold AK, there is exactly ONE hand I am ahead of. You have a mere 20k invested, so why not let it go and wait until you're certain you're ahead.

I knew the commentators would have a cow about this laydown because, like someone said, no one ever folds AK on the WPT. Notice how he got much of that 20k back with 78s on the next televised hand against the same player by making a raise.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's especially daring. I mean, he had to know how much heat he was going to be taking for it in his own back yard.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure he factors this in all his decisions.

Its actually in the hidden chaptor of TOP

[Beavis68]

I don't think Dan Harrington would have folded............

[slickpoppa]

i think he just didnt want to get lectured by TJ about how AK is the walking home to houston hand

[TransientR]

It was a poor laydown..and if Doyle heads-up hadn't decided to fall asleep with his hand on the all-in button (if the editing is to be believed)..David's fold would look even worse.

Sklansky is the hometown fav here. But suppose Hellmuth had made the same laydown, you folks would be on him like piranhas...

Frank

[sexypanda]

I thought about this hand for a while too and realized that, at the least, the payout structure of the tournament should dictate a call/raise (I still think reraising is good) there. Since it's a winner take all, shouldn't you be more willing to gamble and pounce on edges to accumulate chips?

[David Sklansky]

I didn't have a 2-1 chip lead. I didn't think he would make the play with AQ offsuit. Moving in might be a tad better than folding if I was sure he could have jacks or AQsuited. But I wasn't. And if lost that hand I'd miss my opportunity to play some pots with Mike Caro or Phil Hellmuth, both of whom I had never played no limit with, and who would surely be under the wrong impression about how I would play. Still I would have probably moved in if I had known that the first one out would become the commentator. I already stated that some of my close plays were influenced by business decisions.

As for the comment that any of you would have played the head up hands the same as me, there were some hands not shown. I actually started the head up match with about 190K. The shown hands were pretty automatic but some of you might not have moved in with the A5 or made a small raise with the AQs. You tell me.

[lastchance]

[ QUOTE ]
Still I would have probably moved in if I had known that the first one out would become the commentator.

[/ QUOTE ]
Dammit. We were all cheated. Imagine how 1337 it would be having Sklansky, Caro, Brunson, Hellmuth or even Cloutier commentating. Immediately would become the best WPT show ever, and not even close.
[ QUOTE ]
I already stated that some of my close plays were influenced by business decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]
Which ones?

[David Sklansky]

Face time

[MattC]

is there a torrent out for this episode, i missed it /images/graemlins/frown.gif.

[Dan Rutter]

The episode should be replayed on the Travel channel at like 5 or 6 p.m. on Sat.

[MattC]

is that EST PST or what.

[Brunger]

Also the show showed a lot of hands where you limped in on the button. Mainly with suited connectors but also with KJ and K9s,there was another limper in that hand, what was the stragety behind the limps. Also it seemed like you got raised out each time did you plan on doing in with a big hand later. Congrats!!

[Michael C.]

If I understand you right, one of your primary considerations was "business decisions," i.e. what could sell you the most books and get you the most publicity. And apparently on close calls that was your priority over playing the best poker. Correct? So as a reader of yours I really shouldn't bother to watch that episode, since you are admitedly not playing your best and therefore not practicing what you preach. I don't think that's necessarily wrong and I might have done the same thing in your shoes, but is this basically correct?

[lastchance]

So, what do you think of Doyle Brunson's play HU? I thought it was relatively standart.

[TransientR]

Interesting.

I'm trying to put myself in the shoes of the average WPT watcher.

Phil is a known quantity, both because of his past poker success, previous appearances, and his marketing. I doubt many knew who Mike Caro was. Mike Sexton..:). Probably some viewers were amazed he actually plays poker, but they know him. TJ and Doyle..if their was a Mount Rushmore of NL poker, their craggy faces would be two of the four carved in.

David Sklansky? Huh....?

So you both won the tourney, and succeeded on the metastrategy level of gaining exposure for yourself and 2+2.

Frank

[tolbiny]

"Correct? So as a reader of yours I really shouldn't bother to watch that episode, since you are admitedly not playing your best and therefore not practicing what you preach."

Try thinking of it a different way- this was just a meta game move, and David has broader implications to his game than most people. When you watch his play and you are trying to figure out why he did what, keep it in mind.

[Easy E]

You think it would be that valuable a contribution to book sales and your consulting work, David?

Wow, the power of television. If that's true, why don't you volunteer as a guest commentator on one of the WPT's other, regular broadcasts? If the exposure would be worth that much, then having the WPT profit off of you would still make sense, right?

I know I'd be thrilled not to have to listen to VVP for one show....

[belloc]

[ QUOTE ]
is that EST PST or what.

[/ QUOTE ]

WPT Schedule (http://www.worldpokertour.com/tvshow/)

[tek]

[ QUOTE ]
You think it would be that valuable a contribution to book sales and your consulting work, David?


[/ QUOTE ]

I believe DS stated in his tournament book that there were moves he would make in a tournament because of increased sales of books, but otherwise would be bad plays.

Therefore he has already stated in his book "Do as I say, not as I do" so to speak...

BTW, what does "1337" mean?

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
You think it would be that valuable a contribution to book sales and your consulting work, David?

Wow, the power of television. If that's true, why don't you volunteer as a guest commentator on one of the WPT's other, regular broadcasts? If the exposure would be worth that much, then having the WPT profit off of you would still make sense, right?

I know I'd be thrilled not to have to listen to VVP for one show....

[/ QUOTE ]

Television is the most powerfull force in the world today. I'm sure that hour of television will do more for David than all the writing and playing he has done over the years.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
BTW, just b/c we haven't seen anyone lay down AK pre-flop in any WPT event doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Remember, these shows represent an hour and a half or so or what is sometimes 6-7 hours worth of live action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you're refering to WPT final table action, but in the only WPT event that I ever played in, I folded AK after a big reraise.

I didn't have any chips all day in this tourney and suddenly when on a little streak and after a big hand against Huck Seed found myself with about 23K. The blinds were 500/1000 and I raised to 3000 with AK UTG.

Mark Seif was UTG2 and he re-raised me 9K more to 12K. Mark had just been moved to our table and during some table talk I overheard him tell another player that he had acquired his big stack which was about 40K through stealing.

I thought at the time that he said this to try and get action with his big hands. Anyway, it was back to me, and my read was that he had a big hand and I mucked my AK.

I thought that I probably made a good play until he told me that I made a good laydown, that he had KK. So I probably got outplayed on the hand, but yes at least one other has laid down AK in a WPT event. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[stipper30]

[ QUOTE ]
Face time

[/ QUOTE ]

schmuck

[MortalWombat]

Ouch. I don't know how Mr. Sklansky can bear it being called a name by some anonymous, faceless person sitting miles and miles away from him in front of a computer.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
Face time

[/ QUOTE ]

Poses an interesing question.

Which ultimately would have been more valuable.

The "face time".

or

The fact a 2+2 publisher won the event.

or (and probably least likely)

The prize money.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[J_V]

I have to say that I'm glad you didn't bust first. The Sklansky haters would have been out in full force.

Of course face time was extremely important. Probably as important as winning the tournament. You're not the Oz because you miss angles.

How would you rate Brunson's play of 93o?

[Matt Ruff]

[ QUOTE ]
As for the comment that any of you would have played the head up hands the same as me, there were some hands not shown.

[/ QUOTE ]

How many did they edit out?

And what did you think of Brunson's play on the hands they did show?

-- M. Ruff