Clockwork Orange

[naphand]

Mostly everything is very straightforward, here I find myself in a spot where I get a strange feeling about needing to fold, or something.

TABLE CONDITIONS: Mostly idiots. SB is playing about right (20%<V$IP<30%) but only about 3 orbits to go on. He is doing most of his raising PF OTB and SB, so he likes to steal. BB is easily outplayed and prone to complete stupidity; his presence in the hand is enough to make almost anything +EV.


Paradise Poker $3/$6 Hold'em (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Naphand is MP with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand caps</font>, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13 SB) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Naphand raises</font>, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (9.50 BB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG calls, Naphand calls (?).

River: (12.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Naphand /images/graemlins/confused.gif


The PF action could mean my TT is in trouble or it could be a lot of things, I am happy to cap with fish coming along. Flop is a standard bet, I don't put him on a J unless exactly JJ (AJs is possible). Turn, he does not have a J, and he must be thinking I don't have a J. Now I am thinking this looks like a big PP...time to fold? Could be a bluff but I have seen no read to support the notion. River when SB checks I cannot really fold to UTG?? That is easily just an A, but SB is yet to act, and is behaving strangely.

Green, Amber or Red? General comments welcome, ideas, hand-reading experts etc. This hand was one of very few that required me to engage brain, most hands play like...errrm...clockwork and are stop or go (a rather weak attempt to explain the title). Chez...you were right /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Guido]

I presume your BB read is of UTG.

I would play pre(flop) the same. I like to raise again on the turn. He doesn't have a jack because he wouldn't play it that way. He would either not bet out on the flop and slowplay until the turn or check-raise the turn and not bet out on the turn. At least that's how most players play it. Most of the time when they bet out again it means they picked up a draw or have a weak hand. UTG doesn't have a jack because he would have raised earlier, on the flop or turn. So only an overpair probably beats you. In that case I prefer raising the turn and checking behind on the river (or bet again) instead of calling twice.

Makes sense?

Thanks,

Guido

[kidcolin]

This is a great hand reading excercise. I'll take a shot at it.

The SB either has you beat pretty badly or never improved his AK. I think it's a bit weird of him to check a hand like AA-QQ, but a lot of players have wussy tendencies when there's a call station involved with a paired up or coordinated board.

The pot has gotten pretty big and giving this up to a weird UTG bet seems a little absurd to me. What hands would he limp with? Ones that are dangerous or hands like QJ, JT, J9, if he's really bad any suited Jack, and maybe A3, which is what I'm most concerned with. However, he also probably limps with most pocket pairs if he's not too aggressive, maybe 99 or 88 on down. For some reason, I'm really thinking he's got a hand like 77 or 66 and is trying to pick this pot up, or actually thinks his hand is best, which wouldn't be too unreasonable a possibility. Another possibility is he thinks everyone is playing the two board pairs and expects a split with Ace kickers all around, and he's getting cute trying to fold off one of them.

Now for your action. Calling seems like a tough option, since you might get overcalled by a better hand, and UTG might have that A3 for the win. However, the pot's big, so I don't think calling is too bad. The other option is to raise. The only reason for this is if it might get the SB to fold off a better hand than yours. If there's a decent possibility of this, I like raising. I really don't think anyone has a Jack, so I don't think you'll get 3-bet by UTG if he holds the A3. Given the possibility of folding out the SB and the possibility that your hand is best anyway, I like raising.

[kidcolin]

If Guido is right about the BB-UTG correlation, then you definitely can give this hand up, though I'm not sure he is.

Also, I like Guido's line with the turn-raise/river-check.

[ISF]

I would raise the turn here, and then take the free showdown unless a complete rag comes off on the river. The way you played this I would call the river, I think you pick off a random bluff often enough given the pot size to justify it. I am always surprised at how often opponents play big aces or random overcards like this. UTG could easily have a lower pp or any ace here way more then 1 in 14.5 times. So I call here even though you are not closing the action.

[Chobohoya]

I think I could find a fold on the turn. In the moment I would probably call down, then, when I lose at show down, sigh in disgust.

After he fires again on the turn, I put him on 99-AA or AJs and lay it down.

[Chobohoya]

ISF, you don't think that a (apparently reasonably) tight player is going to have you beaten more than 1/11 on the turn here?

[Schneids]

A very good SB will bet that turn with 77-99 again in an effort to deny AK a free card (if you were happening to raise the flop with overs to try for a free card) since he probably figures he's showing down anyway and it's pretty tough for you to raise without a jack and he might even get a better hand to fold if you become convinced he has a jack.

Obviously tough to determine or possibly conclude the SB is capable of this, but if you're ever in SB's spot with 99 on this board against a TAG player it's definitely something to consider.

[ISF]

I would put it at closer to 1 in 3-4. Most players would threebet the flop with an overpair and often with a big jack. With a big jack the are also pretty likely to cr the turn with as well. I fully expect to see a middle pair a considerable amount of the time here.

[Chobohoya]

I really dont think a reasonable player is going to continue aggression against us with a medium pair here. We capped preflop, remember?

[ISF]

I am not sure what thinking player would not lead out here with a middle pocket pair. A pre flop cap is almost as likely to mean AK or AQ as it is a high pp and most sh players will raise the flop with these when they miss. So a middle pp would be right to bet out to protect their hand here as it is easy to fold to a raise. And considering that the bb did not threebet the flop I think a middle pair is very likely.

[NLSoldier]

I would raise the turn for sure. His play looks alot like a PP smaller than yours, probably 77-99. With utg still in there calling I might be inclined to check through on the river, but if you lose either of them to your turn raise I think you should value bet the river as well.

edit-Reading the other replies I see that Mr Schneider stole my response. Also, I was thinking this was party 10/20 for some reason, in a 3/6 game I think the chances of a bigger pair are increased quite a bit because I'm guessing the play is more passive overall.

[Chobohoya]

I've noticed from some of your other posts that you seem to play higher than 3/6. I think that might be coloring your response (also the other "raise the turn" responses). I busted myself back to 3/6 short for a few weeks, and from the last few weeks of experience I'm pretty sure that middle pair is unlikely here. However, from shots/datamining the 10/20, I'd say a lower pair is much more likely at that level-- many people seem to like to say that the game is more aggressive/stupid/whatever, but there's definitely some better play going on.

[naphand]

Yes you are right. Oooof, I must have been tired. My read of UTG is described as BB above.

[naphand]

I was thinking I could have folded this on the Turn, and was considering my Turn and Flop play as too aggressive (currently sitting around 4 for both streets). I feel exploitable... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

When SB bets again on the Turn my read was he was "intending" to CR the Turn with an overpair, but got scared by the top card pairing; or he wants to 3-bet this. I do not put him on a J at all, it really was AK, or a PP for me. It seems many think a medium PP is quite likely and looking over the posts and the hand again I can see that this really did play consistent with this idea.

Anyway...

River: (12.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Naphand calls, SB calls.

Final Pot: 15.50 BB

UTG Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif
Naphand T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
SB K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Oh well... /images/graemlins/grin.gif