I KNOW he has AK, I just KNOW it.......

[PokerBob]

Party 2/4 (10 handed)

Villain here is reasonable. No read on UTG.

Hero is SB with T /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG calls, 2 mucks, VILLAIN raises, 2 mucks, button cold-calls. Hero 3-bets. BB folds. UTG calls. VILLAIN caps. Button calls. Hero calls. UTG calls.

Flop (16 SB) (4 players)
T /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif
hero checks, UTG checks, VILLAIN bets, Button calls, HERO raises, UTG calls, VILLAIN 3-bets, button folds, Hero caps UTG calls, villain calls.

Turn (15 BB) (3 players) 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

hero bets, UTG calls, villain raises, hero ???????

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
hero ???????

[/ QUOTE ]

Calls. I would probably check-call the river UI but I'm sure that it's far from perfect.

Rob

[JoshuaD]

His likely hands are: AK, AA, KK, QQ, and maybe JJ.

I think you're right to call down from here, as they're all playing it the same way villian played it, but I wonder if you should slow down earlier?

[sean c]

AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the 4 likely hands for villian, the ones that have the Hero beat are more frequent. Why bet this river?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think this is spewing. Given the action, there are only a few hands that hero is ahead of here.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the 4 likely hands for villian, the ones that have the Hero beat are more frequent. Why bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the four your ahead of two (AA,KK)50%and UTG is adding money to the pot so if your hand is good 50% of the time and you get called in two places i see it as +EV this assumes UTG doesn't have something like 98s or the jacks so maybe we are not good 50%. How often do you we are good Joshua?

[crunchy1]

Even if you only count 1 Ten and 3 dueces as your only outs to the river aren't you gettin correct odds (18:1) to call here. Call the turn raise. Call the river UI - the pot is too big at this point to let go of a set.

[chief444]

I would probably check/call the turn. Anything that caps preflop AND the flop likely has you beat. And AA or KK aren't likely looking for a free card on the turn.

I would check/call the river unimproved as well.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the 4 likely hands for villian, the ones that have the Hero beat are more frequent. Why bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the four your ahead of two (AA,KK)50%and UTG is adding money to the pot so if your hand is good 50% of the time and you get called in two places i see it as +EV this assumes UTG doesn't have something like 98s or the jacks so maybe we are not good 50%. How often do you we are good Joshua?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not very often, really. This is the most flatering simulation for Hero, and he's still a dog.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,231,692 games 0.313 secs 3,935,118 games/sec

Board: Td Jc Qs 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 41.0353 % [ 00.41 00.00 ] { ThTc }
Hand 2: 53.3801 % [ 00.53 00.01 ] { AA-QQ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 05.5846 % [ 00.05 00.01 ] { random }</pre><hr />

Hand 3 has to be much better than a random hand, and Hand 2 could also include JJ.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

116,676 games 0.031 secs 3,763,741 games/sec

Board: Td Jc Qs 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 32.5157 % [ 00.33 00.00 ] { ThTc }
Hand 2: 47.1811 % [ 00.43 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 20.3032 % [ 00.16 00.04 ] { AKs-AJs, KQs-K8s, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo-K8o, QJo }</pre><hr />


I think you're good enough to call down, but betting this river is just chip-spewing, with equity somewhere between 30 and 40%.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the 4 likely hands for villian, the ones that have the Hero beat are more frequent. Why bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the four your ahead of two (AA,KK)50%and UTG is adding money to the pot so if your hand is good 50% of the time and you get called in two places i see it as +EV this assumes UTG doesn't have something like 98s or the jacks so maybe we are not good 50%. How often do you we are good Joshua?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not very often, really. This is the most flatering simulation for Hero, and he's still a dog.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,231,692 games 0.313 secs 3,935,118 games/sec

Board: Td Jc Qs 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 41.0353 % [ 00.41 00.00 ] { ThTc }
Hand 2: 53.3801 % [ 00.53 00.01 ] { AA-QQ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 05.5846 % [ 00.05 00.01 ] { random }</pre><hr />

Hand 3 has to be much better than a random hand, and Hand 2 could also include JJ.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

116,676 games 0.031 secs 3,763,741 games/sec

Board: Td Jc Qs 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 32.5157 % [ 00.33 00.00 ] { ThTc }
Hand 2: 47.1811 % [ 00.43 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 20.3032 % [ 00.16 00.04 ] { AKs-AJs, KQs-K8s, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo-K8o, QJo }</pre><hr />


I think you're good enough to call down, but betting this river is just chip-spewing, with equity somewhere between 30 and 40%.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice reply thanks.

[Sir Limps Alot]

I dont like the call on all streets mentality. If you know he has AK either fold or cap this hand at every turn and if you dont fill up then call. I would never fold and would oftedn 3 bet cap raise. You have 10 outs in this situation and your getting plenty of odds to call that. Basically 4.5 to 1. Maximize betting at every street and hope to fill up. He may have AQ alot of people would play that hand the same way. You need to get the full house or win 1 time out of 4 to get your money here and you will fill up and take down a huge pot.

Raise Raise Raise until you cannot raise anymore.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like the call on all streets mentality. If you know he has AK either fold or cap this hand at every turn and if you dont fill up then call. I would never fold and would oftedn 3 bet cap raise. You have 10 outs in this situation and your getting plenty of odds to call that. Basically 4.5 to 1. Maximize betting at every street and hope to fill up. He may have AQ alot of people would play that hand the same way. You need to get the full house or win 1 time out of 4 to get your money here and you will fill up and take down a huge pot.

Raise Raise Raise until you cannot raise anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this at all. Limit isn't about a "I'm ahead: ram and jam, I'm behind: fold." mentality. Hero is probably behind here, but he's still got something like 35% equity, so he's right to call down when the pot is this large.

On the same token, he's not ahead often enough to ram-and-jam, since the only hands that will go much further with him are hands that have him beat.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise Raise Raise until you cannot raise anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is [censored] terrible advice.

The range of hands your opponent has here is not random. You are going to be up against QQ, JJ, KK sometimes, AA rarely, and AK often. You do not have equity to raise the turn against this range of hands, though you do have odds to call and attempt to fill up.

Rob

[mr pink]

i like just leading the flop here instead of going for the check/raise. i'd like to 3-bet the flop and leave the option to cap up to him.

[PokerBob]

Would KQ play this way vs. 3 opponents????

[QTip]

Given the preflop play, I would say there are about 22 combinations we lose to and 12 combinations we beat (AA,KK maybe more if you thought villain would cap with AJ or AQ).

Either way, we're either way behind or break even...call down.

[mr pink]

KQ is kinda unlikely given the preflop cap, KQs a little more likely but not by that much.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Would KQ play this way vs. 3 opponents????

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt a "reasonable" player caps preflop with KQ against another reasonable player.

Rob

[QTip]

There's a good point...he doesn't seem to care about a free card either....this probably does indicate a pretty big hand.

[chief444]

I'd say KQs or AQs are very remote possibilities. I'd be surprised, but not shocked, to see either.

JJ-AA or AK is the range I'd be considering.

[Sir Limps Alot]

I think not capping this board at every turn is a weak play. If I did not fill up on the river I would call.

[JoshuaD]

No one thinks hero should slow down earlier in this hand?

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
I think not capping this board at every turn is a weak play. If I did not fill up on the river I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

What range of hands do you put the preflop capper on?

Seriously, capping this turn is absolutely [censored] terrible poker.

Rob

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I think not capping this board at every turn is a weak play. If I did not fill up on the river I would call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why are you going to cap the turn if you think you need to fill up to win? you're not even getting the minimally needed immediate odds of 4:1.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, capping this turn is absolutely [censored] terrible poker.


[/ QUOTE ]

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
No one thinks hero should slow down earlier in this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes, I agree. Like I said in my first response I would check/call the turn. I think putting any more than the minimum in on the turn is spewing. I do agree though that with this huge pot calling the river unimproved is correct because AA is possible and KK is a slight possibility although KK is likely to check the river through.

[Sir Limps Alot]

Even with the AK I bet this hand out knowing that I need to fill up 1 out of 4 times to make money or win outright. I believe he is a 65% favorite to win this hand with 2 cards to come and you are 33% underdog.

I put the player A Q, A K, Pocket Kings, Pocket Aces. You are ahead 3 out of four of his hands. Would pocket Aces not play this hand the same way trying to push out open ended str8 draws ect..

You flop a set you maximize the money in the pot. If he has AK you take your chances. If he has QQ or JJ then you lost to a stronger hand when you had a strong hand it happens but most of the time your hand is good. Selective Aggressive.

[Sir Limps Alot]

Depending on the turn card you just got yourself three more outs. For a total of 13 out of 45. 3.46 to 1.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Even with the AK I bet this hand out knowing that I need to fill up 1 out of 4 times to make money or win outright. I believe he is a 65% favorite to win this hand with 2 cards to come and you are 33% underdog.

I put the player A Q, A K, Pocket Kings, Pocket Aces. You are ahead 3 out of four of his hands. Would pocket Aces not play this hand the same way trying to push out open ended str8 draws ect..

You flop a set you maximize the money in the pot. If he has AK you take your chances. If he has QQ or JJ then you lost to a stronger hand when you had a strong hand it happens but most of the time your hand is good. Selective Aggressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

He doesn't have AQ. He has QQ, maybe JJ, KK, maybe AA, and AK. Your hand is a ~3.6:1 dog against AK, and capping will lose money long term here.

Rob

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
Even with the AK I bet this hand out knowing that I need to fill up 1 out of 4 times to make money or win outright. I believe he is a 65% favorite to win this hand with 2 cards to come and you are 33% underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're giving UTG 0 equity, he has more. Even considering that, I don't see why you're excited to ram and jam on the flop with only 33% equity

[ QUOTE ]
I put the player A Q, A K, Pocket Kings, Pocket Aces. You are ahead 3 out of four of his hands. Would pocket Aces not play this hand the same way trying to push out open ended str8 draws ect..

[/ QUOTE ]

You're choosing a slice of hands that supports your argument, you're not being very realistic in this selection. His likely hands are AA, KK, QQ, AK, and possibly JJ or AQ.

[ QUOTE ]
You flop a set you maximize the money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's simply not true. Set's are usually monsters, but there are times you need to slow down, or even :gasp: fold, with them.

Platitudes have no place in poker.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would KQ play this way vs. 3 opponents????

[/ QUOTE ]

I seriously doubt a "reasonable" player caps preflop with KQ against another reasonable player.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian is reasonable, what makes you think hero is? /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Sir Limps Alot]

An aggressive player would play KQ suited post flop but not pre flop.

[chief444]

JJ: 3 combinations
QQ: 3 combinations
AK: 12 combinations

Total: 18 combinations you're behind to

KK: 6 combinations
AA: 6 combinations
AQ: not likely

12 combinations you're ahead of.

AA or KK are less likely because they may not cap the flop. Plus even though you have 10 outs they have either 6 or 10 when you're ahead.

When he raises the turn, you can be pretty sure you have 10 outs or one out.

Capping would be ridiculous.

[Number4]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Raise Raise Raise until you cannot raise anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is [censored] terrible advice.

The range of hands your opponent has here is not random. You are going to be up against QQ, JJ, KK sometimes, AA rarely, and AK often. You do not have equity to raise the turn against this range of hands, though you do have odds to call and attempt to fill up.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

Word. In a pot this big, after the pf and flop cap, I would just call down. imo, raising and capping this turn is horrendous.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
Depending on the turn card you just got yourself three more outs. For a total of 13 out of 45. 3.46 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

your odds calculations are totally off. you have 10 outs to improve (3 Js, 3 Qs, 3 2s, 1 10). Not sure where 13 comes from.

Also, there are 46 unknows cards, not 45. and if there were 45 unknown cards with 13 outs, your odds would be 2.46-1. ((45-13)/13)

In this situation with 10 outs to improve, your odds are 3.6-1 ((46-10)/10).

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
An aggressive player would play KQ suited post flop but not pre flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[JoshuaD]

Sir Limps alot: Stop. Take a breath. Go read the whole thread. Slowly.

Most of the best posters at SS are disagreeing with you. That doesn't necessarily mean you're wrong, but everything you're saying now has already been addressed.

Take a step back, don't post for 20 minutes, and read the thread over. If you still disagree, come back and argue.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
No one thinks hero should slow down earlier in this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see KK, AA and maybe AQ capping the flop here. With UTG in there, and the possibility that Villain DID have one of those 3 hands, I thought a turn bet here was warranted.

[Sir Limps Alot]

What hands Cap pre flop?
Im not supporting my arguement. AK, AQ, KK, AA, QQ I did leave out but I addressed it in my post. JJ would not cap.

These are the hands that Cap pre flop, No?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
What hands Cap pre flop?
Im not supporting my arguement. AK, AQ, KK, AA, QQ I did leave out but I addressed it in my post. JJ would not cap.

These are the hands that Cap pre flop, No?

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ is more likely to cap PF than AQ. A good TAG doesn't cap with either usually.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
What hands Cap pre flop?
Im not supporting my arguement. AK, AQ, KK, AA, QQ I did leave out but I addressed it in my post. JJ would not cap.

These are the hands that Cap pre flop, No?

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ would cap for set value here IMO.

[ErrantNight]

i disagree. a good TAG will cap with JJ quite frequently.

[mr pink]

as opposed to just leading out?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
i disagree. a good TAG will cap with JJ quite frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]

Frequently, but not usually. By usually I meant "the majority of the time". I should have been more clear.

[Sir Limps Alot]

Apologize about my calculations I was just spewing off a round about approach. 13 came from the 2 on the turn which gives you thirteen outs on the river. Just typing away. So your odds support pushing the pot moreso and I appreciate your corrections. Im at work and have to look busy.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
I can see KK, AA and maybe AQ capping the flop here. With UTG in there, and the possibility that Villain DID have one of those 3 hands, I thought a turn bet here was warranted.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think AQ is very unlikely but I mainly didn't like the bet because KK or AA (or AQ) will likely bet the turn for you. If they're going to check a street they would be more likely to check the river through.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What hands Cap pre flop?
Im not supporting my arguement. AK, AQ, KK, AA, QQ I did leave out but I addressed it in my post. JJ would not cap.

These are the hands that Cap pre flop, No?

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ would cap for set value here IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's gettin 3:1 on a 7.5:1 proposition. His implied odds are gonna stay about the same whether he caps or not, so I don't think there's much value here in capping.

[ErrantNight]

meh, it's a piddling issue... i just mention it because even if you can discount JJ slightly, it still needs to be a possibility.

i think this is relatively easy, really... the only issue should be when to slow down, which is a matter of saving a bet... or what to do if you improve on the river...

tough situation though, no doubt

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
Apologize about my calculations I was just spewing off a round about approach. 13 came from the 2 on the turn which gives you thirteen outs on the river. Just typing away. So your odds support pushing the pot moreso and I appreciate your corrections. Im at work and have to look busy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain where you get 13 from (name me the 13 cards).

and how do my odds support pushing the pot??? As a 3.6-1 underdog, you need 4 other in the pot putting in the same amount of bets as you.

[chief444]

If it's heads up I'll typically call with JJ. If it's 2 opponents or more I'm capping with JJ and sometimes AQs.

[ErrantNight]

he seems to think he had 10 outs on the flop and now has 13 on the turn...

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
meh, it's a piddling issue... i just mention it because even if you can discount JJ slightly, it still needs to be a possibility.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I agree. If you look at my pokerstove simulations above, I included JJ in the second one. I've been advocating all along that JJ is a possible hand.

I just don't think a thinking player should be capping with it in Villians situation, I wasn't saying that Villian didn't. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is relatively easy, really... the only issue should be when to slow down, which is a matter of saving a bet... or what to do if you improve on the river...

tough situation though, no doubt

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I want to slow down here, but I can't really find a place to do it.

I'm considering not capping the flop, and checking the turn, but I think you might miss some value if you don't cap the flop.

The only other viable line is Cap the flop (for value), and then check the turn since you didn't fill up.

I don't know if either is superior to the Hero's line.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's heads up I'll typically call with JJ. If it's 2 opponents or more I'm capping with JJ and sometimes AQs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?

edit: It might be a good idea to bring this discussion to a new thread.

[Bob T.]

If you are up against AK, you aren't in bad shape, and you have an easy call. But if he doesn't have AK, but instead holds QQ, or JJ, then you are drawing thin, and can't call.

It seems to me that you effectively have about 8 outs, and you are more likely to get reraised in the situation where your opponent(s) hold AK, so I think you call, and hope that the board pairs, preferably with a ten /images/graemlins/grin.gif.

I would call one bet on the river, just in case, but not more than that.

[Sir Limps Alot]

3 Js, 3Qs, 3 2's 1-10 = 10 outs

13 is completely wrong.

10 is correct.

My Bad.

[QTip]

Not to mention the fact that a lot of the cards that fill you up could hurt you here as well...especially if we're facing something like JJ or QQ...on the turn if he has AK, we have only 35% pot equity and he has 65%.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can see KK, AA and maybe AQ capping the flop here. With UTG in there, and the possibility that Villain DID have one of those 3 hands, I thought a turn bet here was warranted.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think AQ is very unlikely but I mainly didn't like the bet because KK or AA (or AQ) will likely bet the turn for you. If they're going to check a street they would be more likely to check the river through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the aggression I have shown, I think a check behind by AA or KK is a real possibility here. Am I wrong?

[chief444]

Josh,

Mainly because if it's heads-up and you consider the range of 3-betting hands (say TT-AA, AK, AQ typically) you're about a coin flip. So there isn't a lot of value in capping plus the opponent is likely to assume you'll have a big ace or KQ or something. If it's multiway then you're hand is too strong not to cap with. You may be a coin flip against the 3-bet, but you're a big favorite typically over the others.

With AQs and enough opponents it's pretty much the same logic. Basically you're going to win more than your fair share.

Chief

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What hands Cap pre flop?
Im not supporting my arguement. AK, AQ, KK, AA, QQ I did leave out but I addressed it in my post. JJ would not cap.

These are the hands that Cap pre flop, No?

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ would cap for set value here IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's gettin 3:1 on a 7.5:1 proposition. His implied odds are gonna stay about the same whether he caps or not, so I don't think there's much value here in capping.

[/ QUOTE ]

But there are monkies trapped in the middle that JJ may be WAY ahead of here. I think that gives JJ enbouh overlay for the cap. But I'm not very bright, so who knows?

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]

But there are monkies trapped in the middle that JJ may be WAY ahead of here. I think that gives JJ enbouh overlay for the cap. But I'm not very bright, so who knows?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, I might agree then. I just defintely disagree with capping for set value alone. I think you and chief might be right, wanna click around with pokerstove and see what it says though.

[ErrantNight]

dude, are you kidding?

c'mon... all I was arguing was that TAGs cap JJ pretty frequently.

my only other point was that this hand isn't really worthy of this much discussion. I think the debate begins/ends with whether to lead the turn and call down, or check the turn and call down... with any further discussion centering around what to do on a particular river.

How many times do you flop bottom set against a preflop capper and have to worry about it?

The point that sometimes one has to slow down when you hit the flop HARD because your opponent's range of hands leaves you with slim equity was made a while back, and while worth reinforcing, should be relatively obvious.

This situation doesn't come up much, and even if it's MUCH better to check/call the turn, losing an extra bet in this pot isn't horrendous.

The guy advocating capping every street is horrendous. But that's it.

Please don't respond by reiterating what others have already said (the equity) or what should be perfectly obvious (if you're behind to a larger set... you're f'ed in the a).

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Party 2/4 (10 handed)

Villain here is reasonable. No read on UTG.

Hero is SB with T /images/graemlins/heart.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG calls, 2 mucks, VILLAIN raises, 2 mucks, button cold-calls. Hero 3-bets. BB folds. UTG calls. VILLAIN caps. Button calls. Hero calls. UTG calls.

Flop (16 SB) (4 players)
T /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif
hero checks, UTG checks, VILLAIN bets, Button calls, HERO raises, UTG calls, VILLAIN 3-bets, button folds, Hero caps UTG calls, villain calls.

Turn (15 BB) (3 players) 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

hero bets, UTG calls, villain raises, hero ???????

[/ QUOTE ]

I called, the monkey called

River BIG FAT BRICK. I check. Monkey checks. Villain bets. Hero wails and gnashes teeth and calls. Monkey folds.

Villian shows me what I KNEW he had. Hero lametns that this is the 5th straigh set he has had cracked and moves on.

Thanks for the replies. I think the discussion was helpful.

[Sir Limps Alot]

This will be my final post on this hand.

I flop a set I push the pot.
If I get raised on the flop I three bet if he caps I call because I cannot bet again.

Turn card is a duck no help nowhere. I bet out If I get raised I three bet if he caps I call.

If I do not fill up on the river I check and call.

What is the % of winning with the set?

What is the % of filling up on the river?

What is he playing?

I would put him on AK, KK, AA, QQ, possibly JJ and possibly A Q suited.

I will take my chances until something tells me this is a bad move.
Id say pushing this pot is the right move
And taking my licks when they come.

I would think that if you asked anyone if flopping a set of tens with that board is usually the winner most people agree.

The villains betting leads to think he has you beat but there are too many hands he could be playing this way.

I apologize about my rushing about with the figures and outs and such. My calculations were wrong but that would not change the way I play the hand.

[ErrantNight]

you're not a very good poker player.

[chief444]

It's a possibility. But I think unlikely after the flop cap. KK or AA calls a river bet anyway so it's better to bet the turn. I'm not sure what you're opponent would do. But that's best in my opinion. The other thing is there's really no hand you would check/raise with here because you're not worried at this point about eliminating the middle opponent.

You also need to consider that you betting out gives the opponent a chance to raise.

I don't think the bet/call was horrible or anything. But I do like just check/calling better.

I'll add to that after he raises your turn bet I think, even though the pot is big, folding the river may be best. It at least makes it close to a fold. Any reasonable opponent would just call the turn with anything you beat.

[Sir Limps Alot]

Thank You.

[Trix]

I think he will have QQ/AK too often to cap the flop and it will also make it hard to get bets in if the board pairs.

Turn is the easiest call in the world, you probably have to bet out if the board pairs on the river though.

[JoshuaD]

You're argument isn't paying enough attention to the board. There are hardly any situtions where you can have rules that apply "everytime" in poker, and flopping a set definitely isn't one of these situations.

Sometimes you can go further with a set, and sometimes you have to slowdown on the flop. If you always play it the same way, you're costing yourself money.

[chief444]

It's a good idea in poker to at least try to consider what your opponent has. Just looking at the board and saying "I have a big hand therefore I raise and raise and raise..." isn't really a good thing.

[ErrantNight]

just some great quotes here...

[ QUOTE ]
This will be my final post on this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, we already proved THAT wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
I flop a set I push the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad to know that the board and your opponent's likely range of hands never enter into it. That's some great thinking there.

[ QUOTE ]
What is the % of winning with the set?

[/ QUOTE ] \

With any set at any time, made on any street, with any pair? Are you counting sets as only when you have a pocket pair, or are you talking about any three of a kind?

Perhaps what you should REALLY be asking is: what percentage of the time when my opponent's likely holdings can be narrowed to a select few on a board that likely benefits them does my set win?

Because that number is going to be MUCH lower than the percentage of the time a random 3 of a kind wins any old pot.

Glad to know you're not interested in that, however.

[ QUOTE ]
What is the % of filling up on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

You seemed to have trouble figuring this out... but since you finally got it... might you consider the fact that you're drawing to the T and "filling up" might not help you? of course you wouldn't.

[ QUOTE ]
I would put him on AK, KK, AA, QQ, possibly JJ and possibly A Q suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then perhaps you should do the math and figure out that given this range of hands, your betting strategy is just plain wrong. It's been proven to you, you're just ignoring it. That's fantastic, you're pig-headed. Thanks for playing. Why post here, again?

[ QUOTE ]
I will take my chances until something tells me this is a bad move.
Id say pushing this pot is the right move
And taking my licks when they come.


[/ QUOTE ]

What could that something be? At least you're personally wiling to donate money, and not just suggesting other people spew chips. That's at least a little heartening.

[ QUOTE ]
I would think that if you asked anyone if flopping a set of tens with that board is usually the winner most people agree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that if you asked anyone if flopping the nut straight usually wins you the hand they would agree. But that has no bearing on this argument.

I could also ask them if they think killing and eating their children for fun and profit was an evil thing to do. They would probably agree. But it would be an equally pointless question.

[ QUOTE ]
The villains betting leads to think he has you beat but there are too many hands he could be playing this way.


[/ QUOTE ]

Like: "AK, KK, AA, QQ, possibly JJ and possibly A Q suited."

[ QUOTE ]
I apologize about my rushing about with the figures and outs and such. My calculations were wrong but that would not change the way I play the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're wrong... you know it... and you're not changing your play... fantastic! The forum proves useful once again!

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
I could also ask them if they think killing and eating their children for fun and profit was an evil thing to do. They would probably agree. But it would be an equally pointless question.


[/ QUOTE ]

i laughed out loud when i read this.

[LotusBoy]

I am a newbie, here are some of my first attempt to do the math, please let me know if these make sense or not.
On the Turn, know cards: T(3), J(1), Q(1), 2(1)
Villain possible Hands that you are ahead:
AQ (12) Not very likely So discount this by 50% (6)
AA (6)
KK (6)
combined (4*6 + 6*6 + 6*6)/18 = 5.3 outs against Hero.
However, I think UTG has a K or 9 more than 70% of time here, so effectively he has around 8 *0.7 = 5.6 outs.
So roughly speaking, UTG + Villain has around 10 combined outs against you.
========================================
Villain's hands that beats you:
AK (16)
QQ (3)
JJ (3)
You have combined ( 10*16 + 1*3 + 1*3)/22 = 7.4 outs.
=========================================
So you are 18:22 dog again Villain, with 7.4 outs, call is correct.
Your pot equity 18/40 * (46-10)/46 + 22/40*(7.4/46) = 44% which is bigger than 1/3, therefore raise the turn is correct.
However, thing will change a lot if AQ is not possible hand for Villain at all:
Pot equity = 12/34 * (46 -10)/46 + 22/34*(7.4/46) = 28.75 % which is less than 1/3, therefore calling the turn is correct.
So bottomline is: If Villain is a LAG, raise, If he is not, Call.

[QTip]

I’m not sure why you’re so aggravated

All I’m saying is there’s about 22 hands villain plays this way PF that we lose to right now the way the turn sets. There’s only 12 hands he plays this way that we’re winning as the turn sets. I was saying even if we improve on the turn, it may not be an improvement….

call down….calm down

[ErrantNight]

because you clearly haven't read the thread if you're responding to ME with these points. not only are they obvious, not only were they covered before, but I covered them elsewhere.

so, apologies for tearing you a new one... but c'mon... try a little...

[QTip]

I still do not see where you mentioned 22 hands vs. 12 hands....since I suck and I'm just learning how to make these types of decisions...it took me 10 minutes to figure that out....I think that's trying...

develop some tact...it will make discussion more pleasant for everyone.

[LotusBoy]

Not counting AQ will be 12:22 Dog (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1799347&amp;page=0&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;vc=1)

[chief444]

Just at a glance, your math looks OK. I didn't really look at it in detail though. But I think generally we should be more or less ignoring the possibility of AQ and after the flop cap probably discounting AA and also with this board. This board is more scary for AA than it is for a set.

[ErrantNight]

i have some tact.

you should learn to read and pay attention.

don't lecture me about crap i already know.

particularly when if you HAD been reading, it would have been perfectly obvious to you that I haven't wanted/needed or in any way benefited from the comments you have directed my way. you weren't attempting to engage me in conversation. you weren't attempting to correct or contradict me. you weren't bringing up anything that hadn't already been discussed elsewhere in the thread...

look, i don't dislike you... i just dislike those types of posts... it would be one thing if you were just posting in response to the start of the thread. and you were saying "here are my thoughts"

but you read halfway down, and decided i needed an education.

if i tapped you on your shoulder and started saying "hey, hey, you know, you should raise AA pre-flop!"

and you said: "yeah, i know, f off"

and i responded: "well, i never saw or heard you say anywhere that you were gonna raise AA preflop!"

wouldn't you want to slap me?

yeah, well...

[QTip]

Very nice work...looks like you're going at it as well.. I see that post here now.

Thanks.

I still think we can work on being more pleasant to one another...no sense in being rude when everyone's just trying to help each other make good decisions and become better poker players. I hate it when people start ripping on each other...get past it...true poker players learn to deal with hard situations (like being sucked out in a NL tourney) in a pleasant and sportsman-like response...not...you suck, shut-up you're a horrible poker player.

[LotusBoy]

Thanks for the comments.

I will call this down unless I know for SURE Villain is capable of CAPPING PF with AQ or AQs, then I have THIN pot equity to force UTG to let go his K or 9.

[ErrantNight]

you're right, Qtip.

if we're dominated... we're dominated... and certain hands are more dominating here than others. particularly ones that have us drawing to one out.

if, however, we're only behind, and not dominated, we have 10 outs.

sorry i responded so viciously to your previous post. is that what you wanted?

also: in case you were wondering later... i tend to raise AA preflop.

[ErrantNight]

i agree.

i'm very congenial at the poker table /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[QTip]

alright my man...yeah...that's nice. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

Hey...I've always enjoyed reading your input to hands, and I'm aware of the fact that you have a better grip on most poker concepts than I do...

I just missed the great post that LotusBoy put out there. He's obviously way ahead of where I was when I first started writing in these forums.

but, there's a lot of posts out there with some serious edge, and I don't think that helps any of us.

[ErrantNight]

i kiss you so we can make up :-)

apologies for my edge... i definitely have that (admittedly bad) tendency...

cheers, and g'luck out there.

[QTip]

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Well...it's a full moon..isn't it? Perhaps that's why the blood is flowing...

meh...I should have done some work and checked the lunar calandar forum before writing this

/images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Keep up the good work, and I'll keep learning...

Peace

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]

meh...I should have done some work and checked the lunar calandar forum before writing this


[/ QUOTE ]

heh