pot odds and such

[eastbay]

Me BB 2550
SB 1080
BTN 6370

BTN folds, SB moves in over 200/400 blinds. I had 98o, but more importantly I'd like to know what people consider folding here and why.

eastbay

[curtains]

Im calling any 2 cards here. I have good luck with 32o anyway.



(Maybe it's possible to fold the absolute worst hands...but I'm pretty sure its correct to call)

[lorinda]

(Maybe it's possible to fold the absolute worst hands...but I'm pretty sure its correct to call)

I think you can fold the absolute worst hands, and maybe even some 'bad' ones (94s 45o ).

My reasoning would be that folding this hand doesn't actually change much.
At some point you're going to call this guy for a whole stack, and a some point the other guy is going to call you.

FWIW I certainly play something as strong as 89o /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Lori

[curtains]

Man if I get 94s , Ill call an allin from the big stack!!

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]

Man if I get 94s , Ill call an allin from the big stack!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Is lori a man?

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
Me BB 2550
SB 1080
BTN 6370

BTN folds, SB moves in over 200/400 blinds. I had 98o, but more importantly I'd like to know what people consider folding here and why.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

Calling anytwo is not bad here. Throw away 32o is fine if you don't feel like gamble.

[AtticusFinch]

Check out this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1705766&page=&view=&s b=5&o=). I used ICM and poker calculator to identify a few hands you should fold in these kinds of situations.

The thread assumes the short stack will push with any two, which is clearly not the case here, which warrants tighter standards. 98o is probably still a call, though.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Me BB 2550
SB 1080
BTN 6370

BTN folds, SB moves in over 200/400 blinds. I had 98o, but more importantly I'd like to know what people consider folding here and why.

eastbay

[/ QUOTE ]

In that particular scenario, I call with any 2. But there are many situations that I don't make the correct pot odds call when in the BB because of other circumstances due to bubble situations and stack sizes. The situations vary so much that I'd need to see something specific.

I consider 98o to be more than enough here, btw. Most of the time you'll be an 11:9 dog, I think.

[curtains]

I wasn't using the term "man" to refer to her, but instead to my overall excitement to be dealt a suited hand.

[BillUCF]

I disagree with everyone else. If your opponent is an average player then you should fold. Why?
1. In this situation it is better to be the aggressor than responding to an opponents aggression. I would call if I held an A or any pair. All else I fold here.
2. 98o is only slightly above average. It is ok to open with a raise w/ 98o but I would need a stronger hand to call a raise with than make a raise with. Sklansky calls this "The Gap Concept" in Tourneys for Adv. Players.

[curtains]

BillUCF I believe that if you consistantly play like this you will be making a lot of mistakes in the endgame.
I would go so far to say that folding 98o is terrible here.

[ChrisV]

I ain't folding s*#t.

I'm sure you're more than capable of doing the ICM EV calcs with that Analyzer thingummy of yours, but here they are anyway. I'm assuming SB's hand is random, which seems reasonable.

EV fold: 0.306
EV call/win: 0.37
EV call/lose: 0.2739

Let x be probability of winning for break-even

0.306 = 0.37(x) + 0.2739(1-x)
0.0321 = 0.0961(x)
x = 0.3340

The odds of 42o and 32o beating a random hand are slightly less than that, so in theory you should fold them. In practice, I play against the same players a lot and I prefer them to be aware that they will be forced to see a showdown in this situation. Some SB's fold in this spot sometimes when they know they have no fold equity. I like to encourage that.

Why the question, anyway? Surely this stuff is pretty well thrashed out.

[curtains]

I dont think they will start bullying you because you fold one out of every 100 hands that you get 32 or 42. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Why the question, anyway? Surely this stuff is pretty well thrashed out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just wondering if there's any dissent/controversy/interest left in there anywhere. It appears this forum has become either too educated or too in-bred.

eastbay

[ChrisV]

The problem is that they dont know I have 32 or 42. When I fold they may peg me as the kind of player who folds a larger range of hands there.

When I call and show down 32o though, my point will be made pretty clearly.

[SuitedSixes]

BillUCF-
I believe that you are a genius (and with only 25 posts, too). This is not calling with "any two" time. Why? Because, there are two ways to win a poker hand, to have the best hand and to get everybody else to fold, and 3-handed it is best to have both options available to you.

P.S.
I don't think I've ever agreed with anything Curtains has said.

[curtains]

Im not being so serious ChrisV /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[curtains]

Ok just for posterity's sake Suited Sixes, let's say you have AA in the BB first hand of tournament, UTG goes allin and everyone else folds. I will call here, if you will too then at last we agree!!

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok just for posterity's sake Suited Sixes, let's say you have AA in the BB first hand of tournament, UTG goes allin and everyone else folds. I will call here, if you will too then at last we agree!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold b/c I *never* agree with you curtains.

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Yugoslav
(who would call if *everyone* went alllin before him and he held AA)

[kamrann]

I just read through the thread you linked to. Maybe I'm missing something, since there were a lot of replies, but it seems to me you got the stack sizes wrong which would have seriously affected the results in the two scenarios you had. Yes, I know you corrected them further down the thread, but they still appear wrong. You had said that both cases were engineered so that you had 2:1 pot odds and had to call for 1/3 your remaining stack. But in the SB BB case, even if you correct his starting stack to 500, he raises 300 which is 1/3 or your remaining 900, but your pot odds are 7:3, not 2:1. Unsurprising you got way different results for the two cases.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
BillUCF-
I believe that you are a genius (and with only 25 posts, too). This is not calling with "any two" time. Why? Because, there are two ways to win a poker hand, to have the best hand and to get everybody else to fold, and 3-handed it is best to have both options available to you.

P.S.
I don't think I've ever agreed with anything Curtains has said.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are metagame considerations at the 215s and perhaps 109s that could factor in here for posters such as ChrisV and Curtains. The amount of $EV they *could* perhaps squeeze out by folding it unlikely outweighs what their broadcasting to their opponents at this point.

Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if allin with any hand here is fine.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

I dont really think its terrible to fold the worst hands here (I'd probably fold some hands...). I do think its terrible to fold 98o though.

[eastbay]

I thought I might rustle up some disagreement here. My intuition really resists the call any two line here, but I'm not sure I can put my finger on why.

eastbay

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

I dont really think its terrible to fold the worst hands here (I'd probably fold some hands...). I do think its terrible to fold 98o though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, you said at the top of the thread that you'd call with any two. Now you're saying you'd fold some hands. Which is it! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Somehow we're in agreement on this point that calling with any hand can't be far from ideal.

Yugoslav

[curtains]

Everyone's intuition resists the call any 2 line, because you aren't generally trained to call bets with J5 offsuit.

[curtains]

No I said it may be okay to fold some of the worst hands, didn't I?

(and when I mean worst, I really mean worst, not something like J7o or 76o)

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
No I said it may be okay to fold some of the worst hands, didn't I?


[/ QUOTE ]

To refresh your memory. This is what you said you'd do:

[ QUOTE ]

Im calling any 2 cards here. I have good luck with 32o anyway.


[/ QUOTE ]

But you added this helpful addendum:

[ QUOTE ]

(Maybe it's possible to fold the absolute worst hands...but I'm pretty sure its correct to call)


[/ QUOTE ]

But now it sounds like what you really mean is a combination. That you'd call with a very large range. But not any two:

[ QUOTE ]

(and when I mean worst, I really mean worst, not something like J7o or 76o)

[/ QUOTE ]

Does this sound about right?

Yugoslav

[SuitedSixes]

Curses! Foiled again.
/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[curtains]

I dunno, maybe Id fold 52o, 32o etc etc. I don't think it's a big deal one way or another with those hands, I'm sure its a close call.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
This is not calling with "any two" time. Why? Because, there are two ways to win a poker hand, to have the best hand and to get everybody else to fold, and 3-handed it is best to have both options available to you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is meaningless. I could say the same thing to defend folding to the raise if SB's stack was only 600 in total. Can you explain to me why that argument doesn't apply there, giving an explanation that doesn't also apply to eastbay's situation?

EDIT: By the way, for anyone who wants to know what the ICM says the loss caused by folding 98o here is (against a random hand), it's 1.412% of the prize pool, or $14.12 in a $200 tourney.

[KramerTM]

I would warn you to take my advice with a grain of salt, because I am somewhat new here.

First off, this is certainly both a good TIME and a good SPOT for this guy to try to steal your blind. His stack is dwindling, the blinds will eat him up soon, and at most he has guaranteed only going up against a single player if called. That said, he may be making this move with as weak as an Ax, KJ, or QT. For me, this call is a simple math problem:

If he holds a premium hand (i.e. AKs) then you are about a 1.75:1 dog. If he holds Ax, then you are only a 1.25:1 dog. If he happens to hold a premium pair (this would obviously be the most trouble for you), then you are a little worse than a 4:1 dog. Finally, if he holds a pair lower than both your cards, then it is almost a coin toss with you as a slight dog.

Now, let's look at your pot odds. You are getting 1080:400 or 2.7:1 from the pot. In every situation except him having an overpair, it is correct to call.

So obviously knowledge of your opponent comes into play. But again, since this seems like a good steal oppurtunity for your opponent, I would advise calling.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
My intuition really resists the call any two line here, but I'm not sure I can put my finger on why.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your intuition needs recalibrating. Mine rates this an auto-call with 98o, but I am resistant to the idea of calling awful hands like 32o, 72o, 83o etc. Perhaps correctly. The ICM already rates 32o and 42o as folds, and some of the others would be folds if SB's range is tighter than random. Certainly I don't think folding trash hands here is terrible. Folding 98 though I do think is terrible.

[curtains]

Well hey, he just said his instinct rejects the call any 2, which you just supported somewhat! Maybe he agrees that 98o is an obvious call?

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
he may be making this move with as weak as an Ax, KJ, or QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's me in the SB, you sure are going to be surprised when you call.

All the hands you listed are premium quality. I'd quite literally pump the fist and go YES if I saw QT dealt to me in that spot.

EDIT: Actually, this is an interesting aside. What hands would you raise in the SB here? I just ran the ICM calculations assuming BB calls every time and it came out as anything better than about T3o, 84s, 95o level. The question now is how many players are out there who fold to these raises and how often they fold.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
Well hey, he just said his instinct rejects the call any 2, which you just supported somewhat! Maybe he agrees that 98o is an obvious call?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's true. Perhaps. I'd be surprised if he didn't to be honest.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he may be making this move with as weak as an Ax, KJ, or QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's me in the SB, you sure are going to be surprised when you call.

All the hands you listed are premium quality. I'd quite literally pump the fist and go YES if I saw QT dealt to me in that spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell I'd be pumping my fist when the button folded and I saw 98o. I'd be like "hell yeah, daddy's about to ride his push cow."

Then I'd blast the Salt N Peppa while grabbing my crotch Mikey J style screaming:

Push it...Push it REAL GOOD!!!!

Yugoslav
(then I'd get all sad and mopey when it lost to Q3o, /images/graemlins/frown.gif )

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Well hey, he just said his instinct rejects the call any 2, which you just supported somewhat! Maybe he agrees that 98o is an obvious call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree.

I'm also falling-out-of-my-chair tired trying to get my software finished.

eastbay

[Irieguy]

The only point I would make here is that you have a very nice FE situation against the big stack with the short stack on the button.

Shorty would like to push against you more than biggie, and biggie wants to call shorty more than he wants to call you.

If I'm the short stack, I push with any two against the hero. If I'm the hero, the weakest hand I call with is in the neighborhood of J-7, knowing that ICM says I should call more liberally. But I'm pushing just about any two against the big stack on the next hand if shorty folds.

Irieguy

[Seadood228]

I agree with Irieguy. I know it's -EV chipwise to fold middling hands in this spot, but with the big stack on your left, I think the table dynamics allow for such a decision to be +EV overall.

Perhaps I'm just trying to defend my own tendancies though /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Seadood228]

I agree with Irieguy. I know it's -EV chipwise to fold middling hands. but with the big stack on your left, I think the table dynamics allow for such a decision to be +EV overall.

Perhaps I'm just trying to defend my own tendancies though /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[AtticusFinch]

You're right that the numbers are still off, but it's irrelevant. The point of that thread was just to rebut the notion that you should always call with any two in this situation. The disparity between a short stack on the SB and otherwise was not the focus.

If anything, the fact that my example gives you better odds just adds to my argument -- Namely that there are definitely hands you should fold here.

[Gramps]

I see the "meta factor" of SB still having some serious fold equity issues if you just fold here, leaving him with 1480 and forcing him to push the very next hand to maintain fold equity...but I'd only think about that if I had 32o (or like shat hand). 98 isn't even close IMO, easy call. And, if you lose, you have two hands to choose from to push in order to maintain fold equity.

For those who say (or are tempted to say), "I'll fold and outplay him in later hands," it's pretty hard to "outplay" any but the worst opponents (fold way too much) with the blinds this big and your stack this short. No need to overthink it here.

Yea, I just posted while 6-tabling for the 1st time. I predict some serious miscalculations/wrong assumptions in my upcoming posts for the next couple of weeks...

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Actually, this is an interesting aside. What hands would you raise in the SB here? I just ran the ICM calculations assuming BB calls every time and it came out as anything better than about T3o, 84s, 95o level. The question now is how many players are out there who fold to these raises and how often they fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks ChrisV. This is the only new thing I learned from this post. Never thought of it that way, and obviously, I should.