Anyone ever EXPECT quads?

[zeero3]

This was originally posted in the small stakes forum, but I believe I can get more input from those who have played deep stacks more often. This is 1/2NL and I know that isn't high-stakes, but villian and I ARE "deep". Please read and give me advice on my river play. Are my hands tied?

Background: As some may have read, I signed up for Full Tilt and have been getting good action at the 1/2NL full ring games. The guy in this hand is a good player (from the short time I've seen him play).

I bought in for 1/2 the max buy-in and built my 100 into approximately 430. I have the whole table covered by a LOT except for the villain who has ME covered by about 10-20 bucks.

Earlier in the session, I showed a few minor flop steals with trash because I was playing too tight PF, when I raised PF I wanted the fish to think I was bluffing everytime so I raised PF w/ 72o, 73o, etc, stole the flop, and showed to gain action later........ Villain said "I give you too much credit" at one point. Hmmm does he think I would try to steal against him?

I will elaborate why I did what at each street. PLEASE give opinions.

OK so w/ a stack of about 450 the villain makes it 12 to go from EP (unusually high for villain as the highest PF raise I've seen from him thus far is 8). Folded to me in SB w/ TT. He is very deep and so am I, if I can flop a set, I hope to get at least 100 off him so I call. (I put him on AA or KK at this point).

Flop ($25): JJT

Ok this flop looks damn good. I bet 10 and get a call. I bet less than 1/2 the pot to look fairly weak and to "act" like I'm representing the Jack. I don't think there's a chance he folds AA or KK here to 10bucks.

Turn ($45): JJT6

This undercard again looks good to me, however, I check to further give the impression I took a stab at the flop and came up short, he checks behind. Again, I believe he might do this w/ AA or KK to be cautious of a check-raise from me, he is cautious like that.

River ($45): JJT67

OK again this looks good. I CHECK the river. I STRONGLY believe someone w/ AA or KK would value bet the river as opposed to checking down (just a LITTLE too weak if he checked it down w/ AA or KK!!).

So I'm hoping to see a small value bet out of him: he bets $20, a value bet if I ever saw one right?? Ok, I don't want him to fold his hand so I make a REALLY wussy reraise to $50. I did this because I still believe he's holding AA or KK and this is just about all he would be willing to make a call w/. BUT, he pops me back w/ a MINRAISE to 80!!!

First thing I think is "he must really think I'm bluffing!" Now, my MAIN question. DO I RERAISE??? Do I open the door again? I SERIOUSLY and STERNLY do not put him on JT (NOT w/ his PF raise.) Would a 4-bet here just make NO sense or are my hands NEARLY tied behind my back?

I decided to reraise to 200 here, uh....... he pushed. . With almost NO CONFIDENCE AT ALL I said to myself "If he flopped quads here I'm JUST going to have to pay him." uh......I called.......... Is there any chance he DOESN'T have JJ here? Can this "good" player have a worse hand than me here?

If you're wondering what he had, just look at my face...

Thank you in advance for your replies......

[FoxwoodsFiend]

No, you can't put him on quads here. It sucks he flopped quads against you if he did, but the chances of getting away from an underboat when you're only beaten by quads or some unlikely full house given the preflop action are slim. Given that you raised to 200, you should pay him off already. You really shouldn't have reraised to 200 though given that he might now have to take you seriously if he doesn't have a jack in his hand and will likely have reason to fold QQ-AA, so I don't see the value of reraising somebody who has bet out small and minreraised-he's shown enough strength that he'll put you on a monster when you reraise, and you allow him to fold a loser and take your stack with a winner. The only loser that might call would be AJ.

[zeero3]

I TOTALLY agree with you Fox. I think my mindset was, THROUGHOUT the hand, I was trapping him! I couldn't WAIT to get his money. When he min-raised me (his 3-bet), I did NOT slow down and think about what it could mean. You're right, he would fold a loser to the 200 for SURE, except for AJ. And by the way I see him as a player, he WOULD NOT raise that high PF from early w/ AJs.

PS, I have folded smaller boats on rivers before, but the turn and river changed NOTHING about how I stood on the flop. Does stack depth demand I slow down, or just common sense? 100BB HAS to go allin w/ no exception right??

Thanks.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You don't have to expect quads for your raise to 200 to be a mistake. As FWF pointed out, no worse hand is possibly calling your raise. Therefore, even if you KNEW that he didn't have quads, you shouldn't raise. So just call the min-raise and be done with the hand.

[greywolf]

hes bound to have a MONSTER with that betting pattern..and i doubt that monster is AJo

[AJo Go All In]

winning in big bet is about winning big pots with your big hands. you need to stop thinking as you are. when in doubt, tend towards assuming he has a big hand and finding the best way to take his stack, rather than assuming he has a weak hand and finding the best way to make a few scraps off him.

keep checking. you are running out of streets to get the money in.

[Cornell Fiji]

I hate the way you played this hand on the later streets.

Pf - Standard
Flop - Good
Turn - Bad. You want to build the pot here so that you can get a bet off of him on the turn and a bigger one on the river. He will call a lot less on the river if you leave the pot small. I would bet about 3/4 pot ($30) and then 1/2-3/4 ($50-$75) again on the river.
River - Ugly. You misplayed the river every chance that you had. I would have lead out for about $50, make it look like you are sensing his weakness and are trying to steal the pot. After you checked I like the raise but I hate the fact that you had to check raise because you didnt lead out. What do you think that he put you on with the check raise? Do you think you had trips or better? I could pretty much gaurantee it. Your rerereraise is one of the worst I have ever seen. You read him as having a big pair the entire hand, of the possible AA/KK/QQ/JJ hands it is only 1 in 19 that he has that JJ (and probably even less than that as he would have opened for 8 some of the times that he has JJ) but the ONLY hand that will call your 4 bet is JJ. The call of his 5 bet is also pretty bad, you have him on a big pair all along, and you FOUR BET him, he has JJ (or JT,) there is no way that he is making this play with QQ-AA, what can he possibly be 5 betting that you beat? Gotta fold here but you should have never raised his min raise.

-Steve

[Ionphore]

Whos the villain if you don't mind me asking? For what its worth you should be putting in more money on the turn probably so you can build the pot as others pointed out. These silly raising wars on the river i always see people getting involved in at full tilt always leaves someone crippled nicely. The reason I ask about the villain is because there are many players in that 1/2 game who will open up for 12 (not sure how this caught on) with only pocket pairs in EP. They don't mix it up properly. He won't play the river like that with AA,KK,QQ, Im not saying you can fold of course. But just call his river reraise. Not a fan of opening up the betting on the river with raises if there is a fairly reasonsable chance I could have been way behind given the way my opponent played the hand.

[quix0tic]

I don't like your line throughout the hand. Slowplaying hands like this doesn't win you much. If you want to induce a bluff by playing superslow, why not do it with bottom 2 or something instead of a hand which has so much value? The cruelly ironic twist is that this bad line actually gave u about the only chance in hell of NOT getting stacked here, yet you couldn't quite make the call. Most of the time the money goes in anyway; just an ill fated flop. Also, on the river 66 or 77 are worth a thought. Some people play their pockets fast preflop.

[zeero3]

Agreed. I should be building this pot up now. I wanted to get all my money in and leaving it to the river isn't economical. Thanks.

[zeero3]

I honestly think that my mindset was just that--SET. When I saw this flop I couldn't believe how lucky I was and THEN how perfect the turn and river were: not changing a thing about the hand. When he 3-bet I was still in the mode of thinking his AA-KK was good, although I could've just finished up w/ the hand like an earlier post suggested. When I made it 200 and he pushed, there was <5% in my mind he had the quads. At that point I just felt I had to pay him off. This hasn't been a leak of mine for QUITE some time, but as we were both deep, I guess my inexperience caught up w/ me (I am used to 50BB NL as opposed to 100BB).

Thanks.

[zeero3]

[ QUOTE ]
Whos the villain if you don't mind me asking?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mind--his name is "pokerhoe" and for the short time I've been at FTP, I see this guy a lot. BTW, I looked on the February leader board for the freeroll and he's above me and I've put in a decent amount of time.

[zeero3]

[ QUOTE ]
The cruelly ironic twist is that this bad line actually gave u about the only chance in hell of NOT getting stacked here, yet you couldn't quite make the call. Most of the time the money goes in anyway; just an ill fated flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, yeah you're right. Playing my hand SO slow gave me the only chance to drop it on the river. Wish I coulda just called his 3-bet!!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif