KK wait for turn?

[akira]

Comments?

BTW, I'll have to post results on this one, pretty "interesting" play by everyone..

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (19.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (21.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 21.75 BB

[DemonDeac]

im raising the flop with all the callers in front of me

[damaniac]

I don't think there's much to wait for in terms of hand protection. You have terrible position relative to the bettor to protect your hand. The problem is, even if you raise and BB or the PFR re-raise, everyone in the middle still has odds to call against your overpair.

The problem is, if you wait for the turn and the BB bets again and we have the same pattern of callers, you again can't protect (but pretty much have to raise any blank for value at this point). Do we think either that UTG or someone else may come alive and provide us with some protection as he did here very often or do we think that our equity may be thin enough on the flop that waiting to raise a blank on the turn is more +EV than simply raising the flop?

[wrto4556]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's much to wait for in terms of hand protection. You have terrible position relative to the bettor to protect your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I was thinking. If you were closer to the original bettor, waiting for the turn might work, but here you have a bunch of people in the middle, you're not "protecting" your hand.

I raise the flop.

[Yeknom58]

Raise the flop.

With all the callers on the flop there is too much value, you have to raise.

[LinusKS]

Why not raise the flop?

If you think you win this pot more than one out of six times, why not collect the extra bets?

Also, why not bet the river?

The only hands that 6 improves are 66, and someone playing a gutshot. I suppose either is possible, but they don't seem very likely.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
you're not "protecting" your hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

But you're sure blowing their effective odds though making them pay 2 biggies on the turn. Where your edge is quite a bit more.

b

[damaniac]

That's what I was trying to think out at the end. So we're not getting anyone to fold for another bet or two on the flop regardless, and while we certainly get great value from it, we get more value on the turn both because the odds are worse for draws and because we are getting double-sized bets. In situations such as this, is this more +EV than just raising the flop?

[cold_cash]

So what's your play on the flop, Bernie?

I think waiting is definetely better w/ TT or JJ, but w/ KK I'm not so sure.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
In situations such as this, is this more +EV than just raising the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But don't let that get out. You will be lynched and burned at the stake.

b

[Yeknom58]

With this flop and the flop action...no way man...raising is best.

[bernie]

It's 22-1 when the flop bet gets to you. Yes there is value to raising here. But how much really in comparison to the turn? If you raise, the last guy to call will now get about 25-1 on his call.

I'd call the flop and raise the turn. Im only initially worried about 1 overcard. And that overcard has the odds to call a flop raise. You waking up on the turn and betting can look scary to many opponents sometimes causing them to fold hands that they should call even if they've put a bet in.

And yes, sometimes someone will turn a good card that enables them to beat you. It happens.

b

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
With this flop...no way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see this response regardless of what the flop is every single time this concept/situation comes up. Either it's too draw heavy or not draw heavy enough. Nobody ever wants to wait for the turn. see the Pandora's Box thread in midstakes for a good example. What an evilly delicious thread that was.

Im looking at pot size first. There is clearly more value here waiting to the turn. One main factor is figuring the probability of the turn being bet ahead of you. A pot this size, Ill take the chance.

b

[Yeknom58]

"But how much really in comparison to the turn? If you raise, the last guy to call will now get about 25-1 on his call."

Granted if the flop action went the same as the turn action that would be great but like lots of cards kill your action and a few kill your hand.

"You waking up on the turn and betting can look scary to many opponents sometimes causing them to fold hands that they should call even if they've put a bet in"

Yea right like close to never. If anyone has half a hand they will not fold and look where the original bet comes from...who has to cold call exactly?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
Granted if the flop action went the same as the turn action that would be great but like lots of cards kill your action and a few kill your hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

The glass if 1/2 full.

[ QUOTE ]
"You waking up on the turn and betting can look scary to many opponents sometimes causing them to fold hands that they should call even if they've put a bet in"
[ QUOTE ]
Yea right like close to never. If anyone has half a hand they will not fold and look where the original bet comes from...who has to cold call exactly?

[/ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

Happens much more than close to never. I did this the other night, actually. Actually, I c/r'ed and got a guy on my right, closing the action with a better kicker than me, to fold for one additional bet. That's only a secondary possible benefit anyways. Many times an EP will raise if the guy bets out on his hand again on the turn Especially if he catches a top pair on the turn.

b

[akira]

[ QUOTE ]
Comments?

BTW, I'll have to post results on this one, pretty "interesting" play by everyone..

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 (poster) calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (19.50 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, Hero calls, CO calls.

Turn: (12.75 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (21.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 21.75 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the replies everyone!

UTG+1 had J7h and BB had AsTc..

[which]

I raise the flop also! You have lots of ways to lose this hand still. And with this many players calling w/no flush draw out, what could they be calling with? Do you really want to let a cheap ace in? Or a 4th str8 card? or a lower pocket pair try for a set? Make these guys pay!

And how much extra did you get by waiting for the turn to raise? you lost out on 4 maybe 5 extra bets on flop. And maybe the BB or one of the UTG is willing to 3 bet the flop? the way it worked out you lose the extra bets on the flop, and you get 2 opps to pay an extra turn bet? Does not seem +ev to me.

I have not played very long, so maybe I am way off. But I like to thin the field on the flop with a higher PP, and if not.... well lots of folks at lower limits chase turn cards, but do not call once they see the card!

which

[bernie]

You clearly don't understand the concept of why you'd wait for the turn. Seems everyones copy of SSHE and HEPFAP came w/o those sections intact. They must've fallen out in the stockroom when they took the books out of their boxes.

b

[Art Vandelay]

Just so I understand this (and I agree with waiting to raise on the turn) the idea is that you're giving up some advantage on the flop for a bigger advantage on the turn right?

Or to put it another way, you can't ever kill the odds in such a big pot but you at least make your opponents odds as bad as possible? By raising the flop, you'd give them ~25:1 on a call, waiting for the turn would make these odds considerably less than 25:1.

[Yeknom58]

Here is how I see it...if I wait till the turn it's better if the following conditions apply.

1. The action is such that you get more money in the pot when compared to a flop raise. This rules.
2. You get to Raise/3bet and someone makes a bad fold..this super rules.

What does pots size have to do with this play in this spot. Yes, the pot is big! Yes, I want to do everything possible to win this fatboy! Look at your position and where the bets are coming from. You won't get someone to fold very often (upgraded from almost never per your other post). With this particular action I'm looking at value not pot size. Lets call the value of raising the flop is X and the value of waiting till the turn is Y. My opinion is That Y is greater than X only IF conditions 1 or 2 are true. Does this happen enough that it's worth waiting in this spot. I say no...you say yes...blah.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is how I see it...if I wait till the turn it's better if the following conditions apply.

1. The action is such that you get more money in the pot when compared to a flop raise. This rules.
2. You get to Raise/3bet and someone makes a bad fold..this super rules.


[/ QUOTE ]

In a pot this size, you would like people to CORRECTLY fold as well. If you make it correct for a bunch of callers to call, each with 3 or 4 outs, the odds that someone may beat you make it less likely that you will win the pot. When the pot gets big, winning it becomes more important than maximising the value of each bet.

In addition, someone that calls 2 BBs cold is making a much bigger mistake than someone who calls 2 SBs cold, which makes you sklansky bucks.

Waiting for the turn here is corrrect, imho.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
When the pot gets big, winning it becomes more important than maximising the value of each bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

[ QUOTE ]
In addition, someone that calls 2 BBs cold is making a much bigger mistake than someone who calls 2 SBs cold, which makes you sklansky bucks

[/ QUOTE ]

They don't necesarily have to be calling 2 bets cold to be ruining their effective odds a little on a given betting round. Chances are that no one will be calling 2 cold on the turn. But putting in 2 BBs in a betting round with a halved pot (odds-wise compared to the flop) with 1 card to come is much nicer than putting in 1BB in a betting round with 2 cards left to come.

b