Is the end nigh?

[Lebronomania]

I've had a terrible week. Actually, I've had a terrible last 4 weeks. I mutli-table 5/10 games at Party. Over the last year and a half, which includes over 1 million hands, I have posted a 1.5 BB per 100 winrate. Not fantastic, but when you multi-table as much as I do, its servicable. Over the last 4 weeks, and almost 200,000 hands, my winrate has been just over 0.5 BB per 100. The last 2 weeks have been especially terrible: nearly 90,000 hands, winrate of 0.3 per 100.

I've had alot of bad luck the last couple weeks, sure. But can I attribute my atrocious results over the last 4 weeks and 200,000 hands to mere bad luck? I'm worried that the more realistic explanation is that my competition has improved. Granted, I think the general poker playing public are just as dense as they always were. The concern is that more and more people like myself are doing this fulltime, playing 8 or more tables at a time. The result would be a diminishing in the profit margin for everyone. I have believed for some time that this would eventually happen, but I was hoping I'd get at least another year outta this before the game became entirely unprofitable. Could it be happening now or is my doom-saying premature?

[Reef]

how the hell do you play 200k hands in a month?

[mmbt0ne]

Nothing personal, but I think there is a much better chance you have let your game slip, or have gotten into some bad habits, than the competition has gotten that much better so recently. I'm sure bad luck has something to do with it too, but I can't see a fall like that being completely due to other people's improvement.

[Foldarama_City]

i was thinking the end may have been nigh but in the last week things have improved - as i recall i had a rough time last January and early Feb too - maybe its a seasonal thing.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
how the hell do you play 200k hands in a month?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't think it's possible.

Even if he plays 70 hours a week(which is very doubtful), he'd still have to average 700 hands per hour.

So he's 12-tabling for 70 hours a week?

No way.

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]
how the hell do you play 200k hands in a month?

[/ QUOTE ]

Um... 200k/month = 50k/wk = 7k/day = 500/hr playing 14 hours per day.

Obviously he's ten-tabling 14 hours a day, seven days a week.
Or seven hours a day, twenty-tabling.

Simple.

[Lebronomania]

16 tables x 7 hours

[toss]

16 Tables? You must have quite a setup.

[Dead]

I call bull on the 200k hands in a month.

And bull on the 16 tables as well. No way you 16-tabled for 200 hours last month.

/images/graemlins/frown.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[47outs]

Well theres your winrate issue.

When did you add the extra 4-8 tables?

outs

[LinusKS]

Twenty-tabling would have been cooler.

Was it hard getting by on just $2500/wk last month?

[47outs]

People aren't improving. I'm getting sucked out on more than ever and I love it.


outs

[MicroBob]

Brian already playing around 200k hands a month I believe and is very credible.


FWIW - I believe Lebronomania's hand-count figures.
He has always claimed to play 8+ tables at a time and I don't think it's THAT unrealistic (although is certainly beyond the capabilities of many of us normal folk).
He has previously claimed to 8 or 12 table the 15/30 as I recall and for whatever warped reason, I believe him.

Maybe I'm just gullible (scratch the 'maybe' part...I know I'm gullible).



If Schneids (and others) can consistently 8-table the 10/20 6-max then I don't think it's impossible that someone...with the right set-up...can 16-table the full (did he say he was playing the full....if he's 16-tabling the 6-max then I'm REALLY impressed).

I wouldn't walt to it...but I don't think it's completely impossible.



I also think we are seeing the effects of playing so many tables....it is hard to maintain focus and concentration on everything that is going on and I don't think it's the best way to play a profitable game (see goodguy_1's comments on said topic...with which I mostly agree).


I suspect that Lerbon...if he really is 16-tabling...is making more mistakes than he is aware of.


IF, in fact, his win-rate while playing auto-pilot 16-table poker is going down I don't think it is indicative that the end of online-poker profitability is here. That's just ridiculous.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Don't listen to this guy. This kook is a veritable factory of quasi-"poker is rigged" posts and bad beat stories. I guess about 18 months ago he was 6 tabling the 15-30 but now he is 16 tabling the 5-10??? I don't know, he's a lying weirdo...

The best of Lebronomania:

[ QUOTE ]
I was gonna persevere, then I realized that poker was not quite the thing I wanted to persevere for. I've cashed out my remaining $5k outta Party and Empire. That should be enough to last me until I can find a job. I am a lawyer, after all (just got sworn in on Monday).

It was a good experiment, and I'm glad I tried it. Played for the last 3 and a half months, and even with the terrible run at the end, I made 'bout $17k.

Yeah, maybe it was just real bad luck. Maybe my opponents were on to me. Maybe I'm just not a good player. Maybe its a little of all three.

Are online sites fixing cards? Probably not. I mean, how could you ever suspect a company of cheating that is based in the Camyan Islands and provides vice for profit? I just know that I no longer have the confidence in Party that I'm willing to lose my last few dollars.

I feel like a weight has been lifted from my shoulders. I'll be playing poker again, but just for fun.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Is Party marking players? I certainly never thought so, and still dont. Right now I'm just struggling mightily for an explanation of how this is happening. I'm now down over 6k for the month, and no matter what I do, no matter how many breaks I take, no matter how I adjust my play, its not working. I have $5k left. I believe that I'm a winning player, and I will no stop believing this until the last cent of that $5k is in the hands of my opponents. Actually, even if I lose this my entire bankroll, I will still have won $12k since I started doing this professionally. Unfortunately, that is little solace, since I'll have to start looking for a real job.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never believed in conspiracies. I've never believed that any of the major sites are crooked. However, my faith does it have its limits, and this month is truly testing it. Check out the discrepancy between this month and last month at 15/30 Party-Empire:

Last month: 7,263, 8798 hands, 126.48 hours, 1.91 BB/HR, 2.75 BB/100
This month: (4,762), 7177 hands, 107.90 hours, (1.47) BB/HR, (2.21) BB/100

You know, its not so much 'bout how much I've lost. $5k is significant, but its not totally unexpected. If I lost $5k in one night, I'd just say, "oh well." But its the fact that I'm down $5k AFTER 108 hours. Some people dont play that much poker in a lifetime!

For the last week or so, I've just chalked it up to temporary bad luck. But at some point these constant bad beats will force me to make a decision. I still have a $6000 bankroll. If its just bad fortune, I'll continue playing and I'm sure I'll eventually win it all back and then some. But if theres something more sinister happening, I need to cash out this money immediately.

I've been playing poker for a living for almost 4 months now. I dont wanna give this up and get a "real job." Tho every fiber of my being is saying that something's terribly wrong here, I'm desperately trying to believe that I can still make money on Party. Please tell me I'm just being paranoid.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, tonight, playing 6 tables of 15/30, 8 hours, 2500 hands, I was having a bad day. The bad day turned into a terrible day. The terrible day, in turn, became just surreal. I LOST IT. I mean, I'm not talking 'bout tilt. I was too mind f-ed to continue to play poker while I was losing it. I'm talkin' 'bout notifying half of the apartment building of my plight. I believe I might've, at one point, curled into a fetal position, and started barking or clucking or mooing. I dunno, cant recall everything. I do recall tho that, for the first time in a decade, I sensed the presence of GOD. And I sensed also that HE hated me, and wanted me to suffer through great pain.

I'm not sure if man was ever meant to play poker. Or maybe its me who was never meant to play poker. I should go to sleep now.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
The crazies at Party are killing me. 2,282 hands, 32.52 hours, down 1000 (33 BBs). I'm going to sleep now. I just hope that the lunatics still have my money when I come collecting tomorrow night.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont usually buy in to these conspiracy theories. But I'll say this...Just recently I realized that I hadn't seen AA vs. AA, or KK vs. KK in a long time while playing at Party. I distinctly remember seeing this over and over back in the day when I played Paradise. I always suspected Paradise of skewing the probability of getting quality cards in order to increase the rake. Its one of those undetectable things, that doesn't hurt any player particularly, but just makes sure that more money falls off the table, thus hurting all players generally. I never trusted Paradise, and I believe very strongly that these suspicions shared by many players has had a significant affect on the decline of the site.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Last night, I had my worst night ever at the tables. Playing 5 15/30 tables, I lost over $2500k. I've been told by many people that thats nothing. One guy told me he lost $9k in one 24 hour period playing 3 15/30 tables. Just curious how much is your "worst night / day ever" playing poker? Also, how did you react to it? Last night I didn't sleep too well, and I was bound and determined to play again as soon as I woke up.

[/ QUOTE ]

[MicroBob]

His old stuff was pretty goofy and borderline trollish at times.....but he has made quite a few worthwhile posts and observations since his return to the forums (after staying away for several mths I think).

When he first returned (or at least when I first saw him return) I was truly impressed with the quality of the stuff he was posting.

For the time-being I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. But your point is certainly valid.

[goodguy_1]

Bob do you really think its possible to 16-table full ring games proficiently for any amount of time let alone 8 hours a day? 16-table 6MAX ?no way.

I occasionally 8 table full ring games when everything is rollin but 16.I've built up some tolerance so I could probably play 10 but 16 no way and for any amount of time I'd be a zombie.8-tabling 6MAX is also nuts.. 16-tabling anything but $1-2 efficiently(no time outs)is a heroic feat let alone something you could do day in day out.Lebron is no Scheids either.

I've been playing some of the $5-10 Full games of late and I've noticed the number of games with decent pot averages have improved.Usually you can find 5-6 8bb or better pot average games-this is in the evening.VIP is still tight thu sub 30%.But $5-10 Full games have been better of late.

Why is every anecdote this guy have so extreme.Either he wants attention or maybe he's just stretching the details a wee bit.Maybe a combination of both.

[Lebronomania]

Dunno whether to be flattered, or creeped out. "The Best of Lebronomania" lol

I've had my ups and downs with poker, for sure. Tho I don't believe I ever really fully endorsed any conspiracy theories, I don't even entertain them anymore. Playing as many hands as I have since I started doing this fulltime again February of last year, approximately 1.5 million hands, I've seen my ups and downs. In fact, I've come to expect it. I believe that it has given me a great deal of perspective on what is indeed possible in the world of poker. This particular down, tho, has me scratching my head, and this is why I posted here for the first time in a few months. Hopefully it'll turn around soon. In the meantime, I'll just have to live on the rakeback.

I do play 16 tables, and, to be honest, am surprised that people are so incredulous. I didn't create this thread to brag on myself...I'm not a great poker player. My talent, if any, is merely the ability to multi-task. I'm a grinder in the truest sense of the word. I have no poker ambitions. My ultimate goal is simple: pay off nearly 200k in law school debt so that I can become a high school teacher. With the debt, that "dream job" is not feasible.

As for the reasons why I might be struggling, I suspect that the one poster who suggested I'm making more mistakes than I'm aware of might be right. In particular, sometimes its very difficult to remember action on prior rounds. During some hands, I find myself switching chat to "everything" just to figure out who the pre-flop raiser was. That having been said, I have gotten better with 16 over the last couple months, and I'm confident that I'll continue to improve. I believe, with the rakeback deal I have, 16 will, in the long run, be more profitable than 12. Then again, I have considered the possibility that 14 or 15 might be the most profitable, and that after 15, overall profitability decreases.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Yeah. You just come in here every few months and make some claim that online poker has "dried up," or that you feel something's fishy. It's always about some crazy downswing or bad day you've had.

There's just so much wrong with your logic.

Why the hell don't you 6 table 15-30 and make more money? 6 tables would be so much damn easier and your winrate would improve as you have more time to analyze your decisions.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
Why the hell don't you 6 table 15-30 and make more money? 6 tables would be so much damn easier and your winrate would improve as you have more time to analyze your decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree.

And I generally agree with goodguy's assessment also....that it isn't terribly profitable even if you can do it at an ABC level.


but, for now, I do believe Lebron's claims.
He is not claiming to be a great player...he is just playing auto-pilot on 16 tables I guess.


The fact is....I'm usually watching TV and typing or surfing on here while I'm 4-6 tabling and it's not that hard for me even if it's 4 tables of 6-max and a couple MTT's going on.


Again..I don't think bragging was the point of Lebron's posts here (as opposed to the stuff from a couple years ago).
I do think he is just completely unaware of the amount of stuff he is missing per table, thus the reason why his win-rate is so mediocre (to break-even during stretches).


When I did my marathon raked-hands run at 10/20 6-max I was missing a lot of stuff and over my 20k hands in 3 or 4 days my win-rate was almost exactly 0BB/100. I saw some of the stuff I was missing after the fact..."Oh crap...that's a 4-flush on the board...Why did I raise?" and stuff like that.
While my mistakes were generally due to extreme fatigue the idea that lack of concentration will lead to simple errors remains the same because I do think one will tend to miss simple details after a few hours of 16-tabling no matter how used to it they think they are.
And if you're prone to missing the occasional simple details (like missing a 4-flush on the board...or not knowing who raised) then you sure as hell are going to miss a lot of the slightly more subtle stuff (like who's tilting from a bad-beat and is now calling down with ANYTHING....who should you be iso 3-betting, etc).


I would suggest that anyone who is winning 1BB/100 while 16-tabling would fairly EASILY be able to win 2.5BB/100 while 6-8 tabling if they just took that extra energy and paid attention to more of the actions at each of their tables (whether they are in the hand or not).
And we're not talking Mason Malmuth in-depth analysis here....just really general stuff.


Lebron's fall-off in win-rate doing this (again...assuming it's real) is probably more indicative of how his concentration just can't be maintained on so many tables (because 16-tabling really is kind of ridiculous dude) than it is related to a general increase in quality of his competition.


My recommendation...as well as that of goodguy_1 as well (if he believes you...which I'm not sure he does) would be to get out of that 16-table habit because it's just silly and not the most profitable way to go about things.

[goodguy_1]

dude if what you say is true rakeback on 16 tabling /8 hours a day $5-10 Full @25% rakeback( obviously with your huge MGR figures you should be getting higher rakeback rates then that)is 6.50 cents per hand.At 72 hph thats a total of 1152 hands per hour or 9216 per 8-hour seesion equates to $74.88 per hour or $599 per day.
Just in rakeback.IF what you say is TRUE which I now doubt even more.You could break even and still be making $599 a day or roughly $4K a week just on rakeback..why would you be complaining??doesnt jibe with reality.If you make just .50 bb per/100 on a typical day where you play 9,216 hands you still will be making $460 a day.So I call your bluff you are fibbing here to put it mildly.Assuming you could only beat the game for .50bb/100 and you played 8 hours a day 16 tabling you would make $460 a day off your play and $599 just off rakeback for a total of $1059 a day...why would you be complaining??Thats $5K-6K a week ..Come on Lebron these are the numbers..why so much bs?
Now what could be happening is that yes you are playing 16 tables and instead of winning .50bb/100 hands you are losing .50bb/100 and breaking even when you include rakeback...this makes more sense.I just dont think you are being honest here about all the details.Why would you complain about a G-note net a day??.Play less tables.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Nice post goodguy... and $599 per day in rake is a lot more than $4K a month... we could assume $400 per day and 24 days a month of work and that is almost 9K, just in rakeback.

Total BS from this guy. MicroBob, just look at the tone of this guy's posts over the years in the archives, he's just rehashing the same old crap again and again.

[goodguy_1]

[ QUOTE ]
and $599 per day in rake is a lot more than $4K a month

[/ QUOTE ]
yes typo I meant weekly not monthly.
What's more probable is he is playing too many tables say 8-12-16 whatever and running a little sour and losing .50/100 hands-this is being generous.Why all the hyerbole Lebron?

[MicroBob]

I'm not dismissing that possibility.


I've already admitted to being more gullible than most (although I seem to be one of the few who knew ahead of time that the PokerStars Support guy from a few days ago was a hoax).

[JackWilson]

[ QUOTE ]
I've already admitted to being more gullible than most (although I seem to be one of the few who knew ahead of time that the PokerStars Support guy from a few days ago was a hoax).

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait, I thought he admitted to being you, although I didn't see that thread through to completion.

As for the numbers in this thread, all I can say is WOW. The rakeback calculations alone are staggering...almost $80/hr on rakeback is simply jaw-dropping.

[sublime]

Brian already playing around 200k hands a month I believe and is very credible

fwiw, i am almost positive this is true (brians claim).

[Lebronomania]

4 cents per hand, $400 per 10,000...not complaining, the point of the post was merely to gauge other people's results recently, to determine what I can expect as to profitability over the next few months, as I plan my financial future...as for your not believing me, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and I do not care.

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]
have believed for some time that this would eventually happen, but I was hoping I'd get at least another year outta this before the game became entirely unprofitable. Could it be happening now or is my doom-saying premature?

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends how good you are. I don't see game conditions changing so drastically from one year ago to one year from now.

[Lebronomania]

Ok, I'll go back to just scanning the posts here every few weeks for specific information I just get frustrated when I contribute to this forum, 'cause of the mean-spirited responses. Dunno where all the venom comes from. I apologize if I offended anyone in the past, tho I was completely unaware that my posts had that effect. I apologize especially to you, BreakEven, whose mother I must have dug up and satisfied anally. I'm sorry, I didn't know that you knew.

I have decided to cut down tables from 16 to 14, and try that awhile. I'm more and more convinced that MicroBob's assessment is correct. If 14 is stil problematic, I'll return all the way to 12, and just play 10 hours a day instead of 7.

The world is too small to allow yourself to look at it thru the eyes of the narrow-minded. Ta-ta.

[Voltron87]

There is a point where adding more tables leads to diminishing returns. You passed it 8 tables ago.

[RollaJ]

Sounds like it may be partially attributable to burn out. Scale back the next 2 weeks to 8 tables and see what happens. you cant make top notch decisions while playing 16 games at once

[Packerfan1]

Hey GB:

While your "Rain Man" abilities may impress the chicks I think you'd make the same amount at 6-8 tables and not need all the medication. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Besides, it'll give you time to work on moving real chips back and forward. Hope we get out to Vegas again soon.

Pack

[Hellmouth]

[ QUOTE ]
My ultimate goal is simple: pay off nearly 200k in law school debt so that I can become a high school teacher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Law school is 3 years. Did you pay $66,666 per year? My wife went to John's Hopkins and only took $100k over 4 years. I think that this is total BS and it makes me wonder about this guy's whole post.

Greg

[LinusKS]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not dismissing that possibility.


I've already admitted to being more gullible than most (although I seem to be one of the few who knew ahead of time that the PokerStars Support guy from a few days ago was a hoax).

[/ QUOTE ]

In a way it doesn't matter. Either he's a gabillionaire, or he's not.

But in general, I think it's healthy to be suspicious of online anonymous posts. People like to make stuff up. They like to impress anonymous strangers. I don't know why they do, but they do.

If everyone told the truth on the internet, the internet would be a totally different place.


Btw, I'm dating Britney Spears and Shianna Hyatt.

They want to do a three-way. What do you think?

[dogmeat]

Where did you go to law school?
How did you rack-up $200,000 in FAFSA loans - while you were earning $ playing poker?
How did you study while playing 7 hrs a day?
Why did you get a law degree to teach high school?

I'm obviously jealous over each of this items.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[mackthefork]

12 tables 8 hours a day every single day.

Yuck

[MowrMowr]

[ QUOTE ]
Law school is 3 years. Did you pay $66,666 per year? My wife went to John's Hopkins and only took $100k over 4 years. I think that this is total BS and it makes me wonder about this guy's whole post.

Greg

[/ QUOTE ]

If I just finished paying off $200k in debt from going to law school, you know what I'd do? Become a high school teacher! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
I mutli-table 5/10 games at Party.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
. That having been said, I have gotten better with 16 over the last couple months, and I'm confident that I'll continue to improve. I believe, with the rakeback deal I have, 16 will, in the long run, be more profitable than 12.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gosh! I suspect 16 is over my physical limit. Twelve certainly close enough to it to be scary. I suspect to play 16 games, your focus needs to be spot on, and you could be in big trouble if you start to loose it.

I am not sure about what rakeback deal your getting but I doubt its more than about 20% rakeback. Maybe you could be smarter about things if you moved around sites chasing bonuses etc.

For the last six months I have been making around $3K per month in bonuses, usually at least 10c per hand or 50% rakeback. I currently play around nine or ten games 1/ 2 up to 5/10, whatever is on offer. Works out about the same as four or five 15/30 games without rakeback (Too much of a wimp to close one of my Party skin accounts for 6 months to get a rakeback deal.) However the variance is incredibly reduced. I rarely get a loosing week, even when I am doing ridiculously badly at the tables.

Admittedly if I had 20% rake back on two party skins I might consider switching to just playing 15/30 on Party. It’s always difficult to know exactly what’s best.

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
But in general, I think it's healthy to be suspicious of online anonymous posts. People like to make stuff up. They like to impress anonymous strangers. I don't know why they do, but they do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well yes he is probably bullshiting, however I think in general its polite to believe the person you are talking to.

[Recliner]

[ QUOTE ]

If I just finished paying off $200k in debt from going to law school, you know what I'd do? Become a high school teacher! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

My brother was thinking of going to law school for a while. When he talked to lawyers he found out that many of them really didn't like what they were doing and only continued to do so to pay off their debt. So after finishing law school he may have decided that that is not what he wants to do with his life.

[AncientPC]

Scale back your game. Yes you can play 16x tables on auto-pilot, but you're hurting your growth (and apparently your BB/100) as a player.

Also, I recently switched from multitabling 8 tables of 6-max NL to 2 tables of limit. In NL it's a lot easier to follow the action from previous rounds simply from the betting pattern / amount.

However in limit it's a lot more important to follow who's 3-betting / capping because you don't have the luxury of bet size to tell you about a person's hand. I highly doubt you'd be able to follow all that information while 16-tabling.

I would suggest you scale back the number of tables and move up in stakes.

[Losing all]

Dude, He's read Homer in both Greek and Latin! (Why do I only remember the stupid stuff?)

[Hellmouth]

[ QUOTE ]
Dude, He's read Homer in both Greek and Latin! (Why do I only remember the stupid stuff?)

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, its always easier in the second language. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[goodguy_1]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes you can play 16x tables on auto-pilot

[/ QUOTE ]
brahahaha haha

[AncientPC]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes you can play 16x tables on auto-pilot

[/ QUOTE ]
brahahaha haha

[/ QUOTE ]

What's so funny? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[cokehead]

[ QUOTE ]
Law school is 3 years. Did you pay $66,666 per year? My wife went to John's Hopkins and only took $100k over 4 years. I think that this is total BS and it makes me wonder about this guy's whole post.

Greg

[/ QUOTE ]

Law School will cost me $56,850 a year in loans. Exaggeration yes, but he's not completely off. It is also possible to attend law school for more than 3 years, but I don't know why you would do that and then not have a career in law.

[doubledouble]

You want to pay off $200K in law school debt? Just multi-table 4 tables at the Party Poker 15-30 and play like an expert. 20K hands per month will do the trick.

Last month, I averaged 62 cents per hand dealt for 130,000 hands at the Party 15-30. This year, my win rate is up to $1.11 after 30K hands. The competition has not gotten stronger. I see dumb plays almost every hand now.

Joe