Betting a big draw - Turn Misses

[davidross]

Online 2/4. 2 MP limpers to me and I take a flyer from the button with 5d 3d. SB completes and BB checks.

*** FLOP *** : [ Kd 4d 6s ]
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I believe I have 15 outs to the flush or straight. Checked to me and I bet. SB folds, but BB raises. One cold call in MP back to me and I raise again. Both call.

*** TURN *** : [ Kd 4d 6s ] [ Th ]

Checked to me again. Do you bet this or take the card?

If you bet and get called will you bet the river again unimproved?

[davidross]

I took the free card. I suspect I should have bet.

*** RIVER *** : [ Kd 4d 6s Th ] [ 4c ]

Checked to me again and I checked again. Anyone bet here?

BB had 99. He is quite capable of laying them down on the turn. Because I put him on a K, I didn't bet the turn. MP had Ad 9d so my flush was dead. He certainly would have called the turn bet, and probably folded to a river bet.

Am I focusing too hard on the results here? WHo would have kept betting?

[Boylermaker]

David,

I think this is one of those hands that you can play numerous ways, and probably should play differently each time around. So I'll just give a few thoughts...

You said BB can fold 99. Can he fold K-rag? If so, that would scream for a turn bet, as MP's play pretty cleary suggested he was on the draw. Knock out EP and you have a good shot to take it all. Also, are you that sure BB has a K? Might he not make this play with middle or bottom pair, figuring you may be on a steal yourself? I would probably bet this one all the way through although I don't suppose that's its wrong to take the free card option. And if I bet the turn, I bet the river.

[DJA]

BB check raised the flop... I see this play often with a draw or a weak top pair. I would say the BB has a weak K since you have 2 flush cards. I would take the free card now with about a 33% chance of hitting. I don't think betting out on 4th and 5th street is a big mistake though... if the BB is a player that can lay down a weak top pair. In 2-4 I think you are going to get called down tho.

Just My Thoughts,