Did I Just Got "Lucky"?

Loose-passive 5-10 game with about 6-7 seeing every flop. UTG, a good player raised, 3 limpers to me at LMP and I called with black 8s and so did the CO and Button. SB folds and big blind completes. Eight see the flop for 16 sbs.

Flop K Q 7 rainbow. BB checks, UTG bets, folded to me. Call or fold? I know that I'm behind and don't have the correct 22-1 odds but I decided to call. Everybody called. Much better.

Turn - 8 of hearts. BB checks, UTG bets, I raised, everybody folded to UTG who reluctantly called.

River blank, UTG checked and called my bet. My set was good.

A player 2 to my right who sometimes quote all those odds to make a proper draw commented that I should have folded on the flop and I just got lucky. I just shrugged and stacked my chips. I knew I did not have the proper odds but I thought the pot was big enough to peel one more off. Plus the fact that it is extremely rare to get the correct odds to hit a set on the turn.

Did I really just got lucky? Comments? /forums/images/icons/blush.gif

[AceHigh]

"Flop K Q 7 rainbow. BB checks, UTG bets, "

Let's see, likely raising hands for good/tight UTG raiser, AA/KK/QQ/JJ/AK/AQ, maybe AJ/KQ/TT/99. You only can beat 1 hand in the maybe category, AJ, and you don't have pot odds to call for your 2-outer.

Fold on the flop.

Actually, I think your call was marginal but fine. You are getting about 16-1 (counting rake) when utg bets flop and
if just ONE of the three pre-flop limpers behind you calls, it will be 17-1. If you hit your 8 on the turn, you will get 2bb (utg bets, your raise), so that gives you 21-1 with implied odds. You'll fold the turn if you don't hit. The river bet makes it +EV when you do. These numbers get better when more than one limper stays behind you, as happened in this case.

BUT: you risk being raised from behind, which would be a disaster as UTG might reraise making it two more bets to you
which you couldn't call. AND if utg was playiing a big pocket
pair he can redraw on you to make a higher set.

[AceHigh]

If your call closed the action I would be more likely to call.

I guess if the game was passive enough and loose enough it would be a good call. You will certainly get paid off if you make your hand.

[Boylermaker]

You got real lucky. I think the flop call was bad. Most of the reasons already have been mentioned:

1) You're definintely behind, and possibly real far behind.
2) Despite being a loose-passive game, a flop like that will hit a lot of players, and there may be significant action after you. Then what?

The problem I see in this situation is that given your description of UTG, he might already have a set, and if not, probably has a draw to beat you even if you spike yours on the turn. What happens in that case? Sure there's a lot of money in the pot, but if that scenario occurs, you lose your shirt. How do you draw for a longshot hand, make it, and not fire away once you've got it?

[bad beetz]

I agree, with the descent possibility of QQ/KK/AA/AJ/KQ/J10 against you, you need better then 22-1 implied odds. Those hands have already beat the set you are drawing to or could easily river your made set.

I understand that I did not have the correct odds of 22-1 to hit a 2-outer on the turn but I made what I consider to be a marginal call because:

1)If it is correct to call a gutshot draw, 11-1 odds when the pot is offering as low as 8-1 (Lee Jones' WLLHE), an 18-1, including implied odds of CO and Button calling was close enough. Plus the fact that how often would one get involved in a 22-1 odd flop unless it is a wild shootout?

2) UTG is a regular opponent, rarely tricky, with a wide array of raising hands at EP - down to AJs, KQs and 99. If either CO or button raised after my call, I was sure UTG would have made it 3 bet if the flop hit him, including AA. Then a fold on my part would have been in order. My raise on the turn frozed UTG who just called. I put him on AA, JJ, TT, AK or AQ because he would have re-raised with KK, QQ or even KQ. He knew that I knew that I had him beat and had to make the crying call on the river.

Thanks for the input. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif

You guys give some of the most insightful, thought-provoking posts and responses in this forum. Care to give some comments. Flames also welcome. Thanks in advance. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif