Time for a Helmuthian Laydown?

[DesertCat]

Empire No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (7 handed)

We are down to 33 out of 190, money starts at 20. I'm in good shape, average stack is about 5500 and blinds are still real low (100/200). This is despite being card dead most of the tournament. I just moved to this table so my read on the raiser is just that he seems solid. The table has been very aggressive.


converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP2 (t9488)
CO (t7405)
Button (t8680)
SB (t3795)
Hero (t7069)
UTG (t10730)
MP1 (t2810)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t200, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1800</font>, and hero???

I'm not anxious to put 25% of my stack in on a call out of position. But laying down my best hand in a long time is equally hard. Even though the blinds are low, they are coming around fast seven handed, and it's difficult to steal with the table so aggressive. What should I do?

[willie]

i don't think so tim.

i'm all in here pretty fast.

his range of hands should be pretty broad, 88-jj are not out of the question

kk-aa i feel, are pretty much unlikely, he would not want to put on a simple blind steal with these monsters

aq- likely,

ak- most likely

i race here and look to get deep into the money

[drewjustdrew]

If raiser is solid, why did he make it 1800 to go? That's 9X the BB. Even if there was a limper, that's too big of a raise for a solid player.

I reraise all-in. He was just looking to steal IMO.

[ThrillFactor]

If the raiser is any sort of decent player, he's not making it 9x BB with AA or KK. Probably not AK either. 9x screams that he doesn't want to have to play postflop.

Push and pick up the 2300 that's out there.

[ThrillFactor]

beat me to it

[suited_ace]

There's 500 in the pot and the guy raises to 1800? I'd instantly put him in a low to mid pair, maybe complete cheese. I'd push here.

[DesertCat]

Thanks for all of your comments. I did push, he instacalled with KK, and I was suddenly out in the cold when making the money seemed a foregone conclusion. I was pissed and thought maybe I was too aggressive, but your comments really help me feel better about my decision.

[AceFace]

This clearly suggests that he doesn't want a call.

However, a couple of additional points can be made -

- he could be a tricky player looking for people who'll readily assume he doesn't want to be called, and thus using reverse psychology.

- or he could be holding something like KK with a couple of recent bad beats in hindsight, not wanting to get burned at this stage (a form of tilt, perhaps)

[AceFace]

Please see my other reply.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
Please see my other reply.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it'd be REALLY weak to fold qq here.....

in this instance he was gettin really tricky, but usually you have a button open raiser (to 9x) devastated.

or are on the good side of a race.

good move, good hand, cold deck.

[GuruCane]

You beat me to this response. With a limper in front, I thought 88 immediately. He assumes the limper is playing overs, would rather the blinds come his way now, but if he has to go, might as well isolate. He also may have a read on the limper knowing his range of starters to be broad. Posters who think he has garbage might not be off base either. Weighing these possibilities, I would think it's mathmatically correct to call.

I am no expert, but I push and then Matusow my keyboard into the pool, think that I suck at poker and that online poker is rigged when I see KK. This is why I don't understand how Type A personalitites can succeed in tournament poker (ie you have to deal with failure more times than not).

[Cland]

Good push, even with Kings your re raise all-in give him smething to think about and your most likely get him to fold, I put him on 5/5.

This is just one of those times where a guy made a bad play but worked out for him.

P.S. I keep a box of those little stress balls right beside my computer, I think I got like 300 of the little things for like 15 bucks. Anyway whenever I get knocked out of a tourny or get a real bad beat I take the little box to my window and launch the suckers trying to hit the building across the way. Great stress reducer /nod

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
even with Kings your re raise all-in give him smething to think about

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, hence his insta call

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]
... and your most likely get him to fold...


[/ QUOTE ]

Not a chance

[curtains]

I'd move allin. The raise is too large for me to put him on AA or KK. Of course sometimes they will have AA or KK, but what can you do. It seems more like a medium pair, or AK-AQ to me.

[drewjustdrew]

[ QUOTE ]

- he could be a tricky player looking for people who'll readily assume he doesn't want to be called, and thus using reverse psychology.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's rare for someone playing this deep to play this "hunch". The opponent would likely also feel this way (obviously not in this case though). I have seen that strategy work fairly well early in tournaments where there are people who don't understand what an overbet is. Get a big hand like AA, bet 5-10 times the pot and get called by some yo-yo playing AJ suited or a small pp. As you get deeper, the generous callers go away. Maybe this opponent is just in all of our heads.

[Cland]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
... and your most likely get him to fold...


[/ QUOTE ]

Not a chance

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't word that well. I didn't meant that it was likely he *would* fold, I ment that it was the best play to get him out of the pot throghout the hand.

If the flop comes with no Ace then he is in this pot no matter what you bet. I worded that poorly and I would go back and change it but Max edit time has passed.

[SoBeDude]

people raise 9x the big blind with hands like 99-JJ because they don't want a call.

I'm all in so fast it'll make his head swim.

Two nights ago there was a huge raise like this in an online tourney. I typed "trying to protect those jacks eh?" I was the sb with nothing, so I folded when it came around to me. He had no callers and flashed the Jacks to the table before they mucked.

-Scott

[tiger7210]

I push all in over the top here unless you've seen this guy make this play with AA/KK's. His raise looks like a middle pair(88-JJ) trying to pick up the blinds and limper. Your push may look like AK and you may even get called by the middle pair. I can't see folding here though unless I have a real strong read on this guy.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]

- he could be a tricky player looking for people who'll readily assume he doesn't want to be called, and thus using reverse psychology.

- or he could be holding something like KK with a couple of recent bad beats in hindsight, not wanting to get burned at this stage (a form of tilt, perhaps)

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed that either of these could be the case, but I just can't bring myself to base a decision on these possibilities - it's seeing exceptionally stupid monsters under the bed.

From his perspective, this CAN'T be +ev, or at least not as +ev as Kings should be. Even if he's in our heads, he'd have to be in our heads when we have a very strong hand. Unless someone wakes up with AK or AA-QQ (maybe JJ, but probably not), all it's going to do is win the blinds and the limper's t200. I can do that with 72o. I want my kings to take someone else's entire stack.

My two cents,

Sam

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I want my kings to take someone else's entire stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

and hey look, they did.

i regard trying to figure out what someone has by their pre-flop raise size like palm-reading or astrology. sometimes the big raise means big pair, sometimes it means steal - whatever you're convinced it means, someone else could be trying to trick someone thinking along those lines.

what i'd be saying in that spot is, "how do i feel about getting all-in with QQ for 35x 7-handed? pretty good." and there's a crapload of money out there to steal if he mucks. so push.

[Zinzan]

[ QUOTE ]
Two nights ago there was a huge raise like this in an online tourney. I typed "trying to protect those jacks eh?" I was the sb with nothing, so I folded when it came around to me. He had no callers and flashed the Jacks to the table before they mucked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the first level all-ins PF in an unraised pot are usually medium pairs up to JJ. Occasionally, you'll see an AA or KK. I once called a guy's JJ, and he turned over TT.

But in the end, it's more profitable not to let on you're on to him... just say, "nh" and hope you get a chance to nail him later.

-Z

[SoBeDude]

As a rule I agree. But I think when the table saw those Jacks, my level of respect jumped ten-fold. I'm not sure where it levels out, but I'm guessing people felt less like messing with me after that.

-Scott