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View Full Version : Random Hand Versus pocket aces


KingDan
02-23-2005, 06:29 PM
Suppose you knew for a fact your opponent held pocket aces. and was not capable of laying it down postflop. How deep must the stacks be before it is profitable to call with any hand (assume you have 7 2 offsuit to prove a point)

I do not know if this would be easier to solve if he went all in on every flop, but if it would the process easier than this would also be fine.

I think I can calculate the odds of outflopping aces, but with redraws I would be lost. Thanks.

AngusThermopyle
02-23-2005, 07:03 PM
To restate the problem (I think)

Heads up, opponent turns over AA and bets.
He promises to call every bet you make (can he bet?).
Pot is X and costs you Y to call. ( blinds/antes make up the difference, otherwise X=Y).

You are asking how much you both must have relative to X to make it a profitable call with any two cards ( ie you have not looked at your hand) ?

KingDan
02-23-2005, 07:52 PM
That is what I meant, but just much better worded. The one difference being he is going to go all in on every flop.

waffle
02-23-2005, 08:52 PM
If you're all in-preflop without looking at your hand, you have 14.8% equity against AA. So you must be getting 1:5.76 odds or better.

KingDan
02-23-2005, 11:01 PM
Doesn't that 14.8% only when it goes to the river? If he pushes on every flop its becomes difficult.

What is throwing me off is the times when you flop the best hand, but he turns or rivers something better.

AngusThermopyle
02-23-2005, 11:21 PM
Another rephrase:

Player X has AA and 'antes' 1 + N
Player Y has 2 random cards and 'antes' 1

On the flop, Y can call N and end the betting, or fold and forfeit his Ante. If he calls, turn and river.

How often will the flop hit a random hand so that Y will have +EV to call? And how does that relate to N?

Example: AsAc v 8h6h
Flop: 10h 7h 6s

the 86 is behind, but is a favorite to win. Hence he should call.

Almost sounds like a form of House Banked game.
You put up $1 and are dealt 2 random cards. Dealer has AA. Flop.
Now you decide to give up your ante or play. You can wager as much as you like, up to the House Max. What must the House Max be to make this a profitable game for you to play? (to overcome the fact you give up your ante so often)