A more complicated all-in pot odds situation from last night's Super..

[ThrillFactor]

Late in the tourney, we're well into the money but no where near the final table yet. BB is 1000.

I have just built back up to t10000 after loosing over half my stack on just a terrible play on my part. Moral - I'm not sure that I'm thinking straight at this point. Full table, table is playing EXTREMELY TIGHT, and we haven't seen very many flops in the last 20 minutes. I had successfully stolen 2-3 hands ago, now I'm in MP1 and open to t2300 (2200-2500 was the standard steal for the table at this point)with ATo. Bad idea?

MP2 (table short-stack) goes all-in for 7000 and I have just enough time to realize I have a tough call decision when MP3 comes over the top. MP3 has me well covered. Folded to me.

I now have to call 7700 to win 2300+7000+10000=19300... about 2.5 to 1 on my call.

MP2s range has to be very broad. But MP3 should have a real hand in this situation.

Easy call or too easily dominated here?




Edit: Of course chip stacks are rounded, but I don't think the exact numbers make that big of a difference in the general concept. Consider me getting a range of 2.3-2.7 to one on my call.

[willie]

i turbo muck here....

gotta figure at least one of them for a pocket pair, and the other one for a big ace or something close

it'd be a crying call and i'd be shocked if your Aces were clean outs.....

if you called it was just wishful thinking that they both had pocket garbage

[MLG]

I like opening UTG there if the table is tight. However, after the all-in and the over all-in you are in baaad shape. Most likely you are drawing to 3 cards at best here, and it will not be uncommon for you to be drawing slim to somebody with a better A and somebody with a big pair.


Also, i don't agree that MP3's range here is all that broad if the table is tight as you described it.


All signs point to fold.

[freekobe]

What range of hands do you put MP3 on?

It is my experience, while not vast, that at this stage of the tourney, with very few crazy players left, that this is weakness. I can't imagine you being ahead of too many hands.

All aces are out, i.e. there is no way he is pushing with A9 or worse. Could he have 88 or 99? Yeah, I guess, but I highly, highly doubt it.

This is an auto-fold, imo

[ThrillFactor]

Is going for the steal with ATo a good idea in the first place though? If pushed behind me I'm force to contemplate a call where I'm most likely a little to a lot behind. And if I'm just called, can I really be happy if and ace flops?

I almost folded this preflop, and many times I do from this position. Seems like one of those times where you'd rather try this with 95o instead, that way there's no decision to be made if reraised.

[MLG]

if you keep in mind that you need better than 2:1 to call here if you get pushed in on then the steal is ok. I'm more inclined to raise in this spot because if you don't win this hand you will be in all-in or fold mode. You may go broke to A-Q if they call, but I would think your opponents would fold with AJ and push with AK the majority of the time.

[edfilan]

[ QUOTE ]
Is going for the steal with ATo a good idea in the first place though? If pushed behind me I'm force to contemplate a call where I'm most likely a little to a lot behind. And if I'm just called, can I really be happy if and ace flops?

I almost folded this preflop, and many times I do from this position. Seems like one of those times where you'd rather try this with 95o instead, that way there's no decision to be made if reraised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Since the table is ultra tight, I like the steal attempt. The only thing is that you are right on the borderline of push-or-muck territory. Perhaps a min raise is a good idea. It will look fishy to your tight opponents (you could be trapping with AA or KK), and you'll be able to get off it more easily when reraised.

That said, at 2.5:1 you definitely do not have the odds to call when you are almost certainly dominated. I'd sooner call with the 95o you mentioned.

[SoBeDude]

Personally I think you need way more than 2-1 to make that call. You're behind and more than 2-1 behind against 2 opponents. All in, ATo wins only 44% against 2 random hands. Two people pushing all in for their tourney life are certainly better hands than 'random'.

I also think the reraise is quite possibly a big pair as well. If he thinks the first bet is a steal, and the second bet is a short-stack gamble with "any ace, any king, any pair", then his all-in reraise may be a pair as low as say 88...especially if he thinks the opener will fold all but top premiums to the second all-in.

I like the play with AT initially, but ya gotta dump it. I'm not calling there.

-Scott

[ThrillFactor]

[ QUOTE ]

I like the play with AT initially, but ya gotta dump it. I'm not calling there.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]


Sums it up.

Just checking.

MP2 had A9s, MP3 had KK

[MLG]

If MP2 had A9 either your image is insanely aggresive or you better reevaluate your perception of the table as super tight.

[SoBeDude]

MP2 had A9s, MP3 had KK

Cool. lets look at the actual odds of the hand.

Plugging into twodimes, and just randomly picking suits.

ATo wins there only 15% of the time.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
If MP2 had A9 either your image is insanely aggresive or you better reevaluate your perception of the table as super tight.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I think a short stack will make that play with an A9o every time. I see it nearly every day.

-Scott

[MLG]

You have 7bbs in MP and UTG raises, and you are going to push with A9o. I think thats a bad push, you have very little FE and can't beat a single legitimate hand. Not saying people don't do it, just saying its a bad play.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
You have 7bbs in MP and UTG raises, and you are going to push with A9o. I think thats a bad push, you have very little FE and can't beat a single legitimate hand. Not saying people don't do it, just saying its a bad play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying its a good play, I'm just saying I see it a lot.

If I had like maybe only 5 BBs, I'm pushing with it for sure.

-Scott

[ThrillFactor]

Exception to the rule that I probably should have pointed out in my original post. This was Table 3 and MP2 had only been there for about 10 minutes. The rest of the table had been together for a while. I was prepared to call MP2s all-in if it came back to me unchallenged - for lack of read other than he's short and probably getting desperate. MP3 had not done anything out of the ordinary, so his involvement in the pot indicated real strength.

My bad.

[ThrillFactor]

But it was sooooted! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[MLG]

Really? Even then, I think I'd rather push with first in with any two the next hand than push with A9s over an UTG raise.

[DonButtons]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I like the play with AT initially, but ya gotta dump it. I'm not calling there.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]


Sums it up.

Just checking.

MP2 had A9s, MP3 had KK

[/ QUOTE ]

My dad in the sb had AK, I told him to fold, quite crazy hand.

[ThrillFactor]

Ucked_Fup thing is I would have won. Flop xJQ, turn K.

MP3 would have been @#@#@ed.

P.S. - The above is NOT the reason I posted the hand.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? Even then, I think I'd rather push with first in with any two the next hand than push with A9s over an UTG raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of COURSE I'd rather be first in with A9s. But the reality is we don't often get the chances we'd like, or catch the cards we want when we need them.

The fact of the matter is, its very very easy to go from 7 or 8 BBs to 3 without ever getting a chance to be first-in from a mid-late position with a reasonable ace, before you're blinded off to 3-4 BBs. Especially online.

So you sit patiently, fold the A9s to the raise. Then fold the next few crap hands...the 83o and the J2. Then you play your blinds, you look at more crap. And someone is pushing at you, and you fold some more. Wow. you're through the blinds and now YOU have position. And someone pushes at you so you fold your QTo. now on the CO and an EP push. Your A2o isn't looking all that great and it hits the muck too. Now you're 2 off the button and looking at more crap and you fold. wow. blinds have gone up. oops. now you're UTG. K4o doesn't look that good, so you fold. Now you're staring at total cheese in the blinds. Should I call that all-in that has me covered with my 23c? naw.

Hey! how did I get so short?

-Scott

[MLG]

I miss typed, what i meant is, that next hand I'd rather push with two random cards than push over an UTG open raise with A9.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
I miss typed, what i meant is, that next hand I'd rather push with two random cards than push over an UTG open raise with A9.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would u really? I'd love to discuss this further.

I just never seem to have the balls to push with just any two cards. Under what specific conditions is this the right play? Perhaps this should be a separate thread?

-Scott

[ThrillFactor]

Here you go: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1794242&page=0&view=e xpanded&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1

[curtains]

I think it's a very easy fold. You could easily be up against JJ and AK

[JohnG]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy call or too easily dominated here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against 2 ops, I'd generally fold. Can easily be in very bad shape against a big pair and a bigger ace.

Not sure I like the open amount either, although the other stacks, along with whether there was an ante could make a difference.