Live 4/8 hand...easy river decision?

[sweetjazz]

Villain in this hand is pretty loose. He has been betting frequently with weak hands, but he also tends to back down when facing aggression even with strong (non-nut) hands.

I am dealt 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the button. Folded to the CO who limps in. I raise. SB and BB both call. CO calls. Four to the flop with 4BB in the pot.

Flop comes A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Whoopee! SB bets, BB calls, CO calls, I call. Four to the turn with 6BB in the pot.

Turn is the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB bets, BB calls, CO calls, I raise. SB calls, BB folds, CO folds. Two to the river with 12BB in the pot.

River is the K /images/graemlins/club.gif. Yuck! SB bets, I ???

(Also, is this even a close decision?)

[k_squared]

I think you have to suck it up and call. It was an awful river card, but with the suited board who knows whether he was representing a flush draw.... in the end can you be sure enough to fold this hand that he has an ace or a king given the fact that if he would bluff one time out of 12 in this situation you should make the call. There are few players I am ever that sure have me beat... although given your description this guy might be one of the few.

In the end, it is a question of how likely you think he is to have the hand. Perhaps it is a leak in my game, but I would much rather lose one bet on the end from making a marginal call than 12 bets from not calling at all. Not to mention that you can get some useful information about how he plays his big hands, and that alone could be worth a bet.

-k_squared

[The Goober]

I would call and expect to lose. Its really hard to imagine winning here, but getting 14:1, I think its worth the off-chance that he had a brain fart, and calling is definately +sanity.

[DemonDeac]

i think u make the crying call and then bitch about the river card to everyone around. it seems only right

[sweetjazz]

I folded to the river bet. Villain was kind enough to show A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif for the higher boat. I thought for a bit before folding, and my reasoning was as follows. The player's bet on the flop indicated that he had some kind of hand, but didn't necessarily guarantee an ace. He could have just a pocket pair. When he calls my turn raise, he is afraid that I have an ace with a good kicker (or at the very least a king). He bets the river because he's no longer worried about losing (though KK is a small possibility, it likely did not enter his mind), and maybe he's afraid I'll check with just a king. I couldn't really put together what was going through his mind, but it was pretty clear that his bet indicated he had an ace. Having not seen him bluff once yet, nor even show any aggression after being raised postflop, I thought the likelihood he had an ace was higher than what the pot was offering me.

Looking back, I'm not sure this was the right decision. I agree with the premise that folding for one more bet in a big pot is generally a bad idea. OTOH, the likelihood that villain has an A is very high here. So I think it makes it a close decision. If folding this river here is a mistake, I don't think it's a huge one, assuming that I am a decent reader of my opposition (this gentleman had been at my table for about 3-4 hours before this hand came up).

Given my thoughts before I posted this hand and the feedback given, I'm inclined to think that making the crying call might be right here, but just barely. But I'm still not convinced that folding isn't best here, as a rare exception to the don't fold for one more bet in a big pot.

FWIW, I wouldn't even consider folding if there was any straight or flush possibility on board.