chasing draws

[djshawk]

I had a decision to make on every street here and I think they were all pretty close. I often chase draws like this and think it may be a weakness, at my stats currently suggest I go to showdown too much, and win at showdown too little.

I had decent reads on each player:
UTG+1 is LA-A
UTG+2 is LP-P
MP2 is LP-P


Comments on all streets appreciated. I'm pretty sure the river sucks bigtime, but I just couldn't bare to see it checked round once I got there!

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls (8.75:1).

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero calls (~8.5:1), UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, MP2 calls, Button folds, Hero calls (~12:1), UTG+1 calls.

River: (14.25 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 18.25 BB

[Firefly]

Fold the flop. It's 2 cold and you're outs are probally tainted, a 2 puts a 4 straight on the board, with some redraws. A 3 gives you the non-nut straight. No set, no bet for me right here.

[_bustedflush_]

For the pot odds on the flop to work, you can't discount a single out. That can't work out well for you in the long run.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (10.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, MP2 calls, Button calls, Hero calls (~8.5:1), UTG+1 calls.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think the pot is laying 8.5:2 here. You're calling 2 cold to win 8.5.

I think you're also making a mistake that I always do, which is not taking into account that you're not closing the action. If UTG+1 raises (very possible) you're getting more like 11.5:3, even worse if MP caps behind. You certainly wouldn't want to play if you know it's going to be capped, so you must discount the odds that are being laid some here. I think this is a big leak for me.