I was convinced I could beat the 15/30 game. Now I feel like crap.

[aflaba]

A week ago I was convinced I could beat the 15/30 game. Now I'm not and it feels like crap. I'm going through a confidence crisis and I'd like to hear your thoughts on what I should do and what I should think about my playing ability.

I want to hear your views on if you think I can beat the 15/30 games or if I should step down and learn how to play better.

Here is my history as a player. From this, do you think I should be able to beat the 15/30 games?


3/6:
2.8 BB/100
14 k hands

-----
FAILED attempt at 15/30:
-$2,000
at -3.5 BB/100
-----

5/10:
1.2 BB/100
22 k hands

10/20:
1.9 BB/100
16 k hands

-----
FAILED attempt at 15/30:
-$3,000
at -12 BB/100
-----


I have been winning at all other limits, but on the other hand not for a very long while.

I don't want to stay at 10/20 because I don't like short handed play. I don't want to move down to 3/6 either... beacuse that is 3/6. I really want to be able to beat the 15/30 games. What advice for me do you have?

My plan is to read on the forum and study hands until the weekend and then make another attempt. How does that sound?

[TStoneMBD]

you probably shouldnt be playing this high if you are low on confidence. your stats mean nothing to me, because 3k hands isnt enough to determine your longterm ev. reading these forums sounds like a good idea however.

[BarronVangorToth]

Set yourself a goal -- maybe 3BB/100 -- and don't move up from 1 limit 'til you hit that goal over THOUSANDS of hands (10K? 20k? 50K?). From what I see, I'd say to go back and rebuild at 3/6, when you are just crushing it, move to 5/10 and wait to move up likewise. You probably jumped too early.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[Fianchetto]

You don't say how many hands you played during your failed attempts at 15/30. Are these single sessions, or blocks of several thousand hands?

The swings will be bigger at 15/30 due to higher dollar amounts obviously, but also due to the aggressive nature of that game. $2K-$3K downsings in that game are actually not uncommon, and it can get worse, a lot worse.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't want to stay at 10/20 because I don't like short handed play.

[/ QUOTE ]
So play full-table 10/20. Jumping to a game at five times the stakes you are used to is almost never a good idea.

[aflaba]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't say how many hands you played during your failed attempts at 15/30. Are these single sessions, or blocks of several thousand hands?

The swings will be bigger at 15/30 due to higher dollar amounts obviously, but also due to the aggressive nature of that game. $2K-$3K downsings in that game are actually not uncommon, and it can get worse, a lot worse.

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, I know. I've heard of the common 300 BB downswings and even the 500 BB ones ala davidross.

If I knew I was a winning player I would have no problem with losing temporarily. It is just that I don't know whether I am or not. And I don't want to be throwing money away.

At the first attempt I played 1600 hands.
At the second one I have played only 700 hands.

[MaxPower]

Why are you convinced that you can beat the game? Your stats aren't meaningfull. You have no more than 22K hands at any level. If I showed you my stats from my last 22K hands in the 15/30 you would think I am the best player on Party. If I showed you my stats from my first 22K hands you would say I was the worst.

The question is, why are you losing? Is it a bad run or are you being outplayed? If you can answer that question then you have a chance, if you can't then you have some work to do.

[aflaba]

I'd say I'm pretty used to playing 10/20 already. The stakes at 15/30 don't really scare me, only the losses do /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

I have a sufficient bank roll for 15/30. It is around 500 BB. It feels like I left the 3/6 games a long time ago and playing that would feel like I was waisting my time if it was not just a quick preparion to moving up to 15/30. Playing it for a few days I would definetly do though if you guys think it is what I should do.

I'm pretty sure I'm beating the 10/20 sh, so playing 3/6 for a long time would feel like I was losing money.

I do agree that the first move I tried (the one from 3/6)was really a bad idea . I got warned here on 2+2 before I tried it... This time around I'll listen to what you advice me instead of following my stubborn heart/ego.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't want to stay at 10/20 because I don't like short handed play.

[/ QUOTE ]
So play full-table 10/20. Jumping to a game at five times the stakes you are used to is almost never a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are sites other than Party where you can play 10/20.

You also should be decent at shorthanded play if you are going to play in the hugely aggressive 15/30 game.

[aflaba]

The first time I got outplayed.

This time I know it has a lot to do with a bad run of cards. I think it isn't possible that my true win (loss) rate is anywhere near -12BB/100hands.

I know I have played far from flawlessly - as I always do. But I don't know if it's far enough to turn me into a losing player. But even if I was a losing player, if I knew I was only a -1BB/100 hands player I would continue playing because I "know" I'll learn evetually if I keep playing the game. But more than that... and the cost is too high for me.

My biggest flaw is I don't trust my opponents and I have trouble putting them on hands. I have some trouble adapting from 6-max.

The reason I'm not winning is definetly a combination of both bad luck and lack of skill. The reason I'm not even breaking even I don't know if it's only because of bad luck or lack of skill too.

I hoped my stats would tell you I'm good enough. Since I hear even about players moving up from 3/6 to 15 I feel I should be able to beat the game to, since I'm beating 10/20sh. But I guess from your answers that my hands from 10/20 don't say enough about that?

[ QUOTE ]
If I showed you my stats from my last 22K hands in the 15/30 you would think I am the best player on Party. If I showed you my stats from my first 22K hands you would say I was the worst.


[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good point you are making.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd say I'm pretty used to playing 10/20 already. The stakes at 15/30 don't really scare me, only the losses do /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok. I was just confused by your statement that if you are going to drop down, it can't be to 10/20 because you don't like shorthanded. Why do you think that playing 10/20 requires you to play shorthanded? Go play a full 10/20 game. There is no need to drop all the way to 3/6. I haven't tried it, but I know someone who pays the 10/20 on UB a lot and says it is pretty good (I'd be interested to hear others' thoughts on the game if people here have played it).

[Barry]

It seems like you have more of a confidence issue than a skills issue, although you may have that too. Make sure that you can soundly beat each limit for a good while before you move up.

100 BB swings!! That's are nothing at the Party 15/30, the variance is high, no doubt about it. Last Friday I took a 100 BB hit in one day which helped finish off a 200+ BB downswing, but I have also had days where I won over 100 BB's. So you need to be ready to deal with those also before you have a go with it.

[MaxPower]

My suggestion is that you continue to play the 15/30, but don't risk your whole bankroll. If you continue to lose drop down and rebuild your bankroll, then take a shot at it again. For now, just play on Friday and Saturday nights when the games are the best. Most people have had to drop down in limits multiple times in the process of moving up.

The problem is that if you are really break even or a small loser in the game, your 500BB bankroll will not be enough.

It is impossible to tell your skill level from your win rate. What you really should do is come on this site and respond to people's hand posts. Suggest how they should play their hand. You will find out your skill level really quickly that way. That will either give you confidence or destroy it.

[Mikey]

relax both times you took your shot you hit a bad run it happens sometimes. Don't worry, you'll hit a good run next time and you'll more than make up for it.

The 15-30 game sometimes plays like a play money table so your fluctuations will be greater and the games are much more agressive.

How do you think the guy who takes a shot at 400-800 feels when he loses $15,000?

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
From what I see, I'd say to go back and rebuild at 3/6, when you are just crushing it,

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, what do you consider crushing 3/6?

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]

If I knew I was a winning player I would have no problem with losing temporarily. It is just that I don't know whether I am or not. And I don't want to be throwing money away.


[/ QUOTE ]

I understand what you mean here. There's no way around it - moving up limits is never comfortable. Handling the swings is much easier if you already have established yourself as a winner in that limit.

Just tough it out. Set a goal for yourself. When I jumped to 15/30, I told myself I would either play 20,000 hands, or lose $6000, whichever came first, and then decide what to do.

[pokerjo22]

I feel like I'm in pretty much the same boat as you. I only play poker to relax, and a few months ago I found I was bored of multitabling 3/6 and decided to give 15/30 a shot, but just one table at a time. Its worked, in that I find poker a lot more interesting again, but the swings have been a lot bigger than I've been used to. Probably some of this is bad play, but its also because its a more aggressive game.

Anyway, on a downswing, I play less and post hand histories. At least that way I limit my losses (in case I am a losing player at 15/30). On an upswing I usually play more. So far its worked out good for me, but to be honest, I'd now rather donate at the 15/30 than go back to winning at 3/6.

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
From what I see, I'd say to go back and rebuild at 3/6, when you are just crushing it,

[/ QUOTE ]

Out of curiosity, what do you consider crushing 3/6?

[/ QUOTE ]

over 3bb/100 for 50k hands or so.

-Barron

PS- this is what i consider crushing something...i can't speak for stone.

[BarronVangorToth]

If you're sweating it, yeah, I think this is a good guideline:

Run 50K hands, average 3BB/100, and then move up.

Rinse, repeat.

That's NOT the ultimate sample size that some on this site would want you to have, however, I'm confident that 50K IS enough if you have that average to comfortably move up one level.

Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com (http://www.BarronVangorToth.com)

[aflaba]

Yeah. I did set a goal for myself. To move down to 10/20sh again if I lose $3000. Now I've lost $2,700, but I don't want to move down /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[aflaba]

The thought didn't occur to me that there were full 10/20 games. Maybe it should though.

But what I've heard 10/20 full is rock garden. That wouldns't help prepare me for 15/30 so much. If it's a lot easier then it would be an option. Is it?

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like you have more of a confidence issue than a skills issue, although you may have that too. Make sure that you can soundly beat each limit for a good while before you move up.

100 BB swings!! That's are nothing at the Party 15/30, the variance is high, no doubt about it. Last Friday I took a 100 BB hit in one day which helped finish off a 200+ BB downswing, but I have also had days where I won over 100 BB's. So you need to be ready to deal with those also before you have a go with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, and if BARRY is having these swings, everybody is...he plays tiiiiiiight /images/graemlins/wink.gif

-Barron

[aflaba]

As it looks now I think I'll follow your advice more or less.

*Keep playing 15/30.
-But mainly on fridays and saturdays. And always to the left of fish.

*Also play for a very brief period of time most days and post the most troublesome hand of the day. To learn.

*Lower my stop loss to -$6000

If I hit my stop loss I'll move up again after I win those $6000 back.

Good plan?

[aflaba]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you think the guy who takes a shot at 400-800 feels when he loses $15,000?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, bad!

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
But what I've heard 10/20 full is rock garden. That wouldns't help prepare me for 15/30 so much. If it's a lot easier then it would be an option. Is it?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know. I haven't played 10/20 online. As said, I've heard that the game on UB (I think it's UB) is fairly decent, but that's secondhand.

[aflaba]

Anyway, on a downswing, I play less and post hand histories. At least that way I limit my losses (in case I am a losing player at 15/30). On an upswing I usually play more.

Yupp, same here. Playing becomes boring during downswings. Learning becomes fun.

[Barry]

[ QUOTE ]
yea, and if BARRY is having these swings, everybody is...he plays tiiiiiiight

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about that, I show your VP$IP as lower than mine /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Buckshot]

Well if you would stop capping rivers with Ace high you'd be much better off.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

~stephen

[gonores]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, on a downswing, I play less and post hand histories. At least that way I limit my losses (in case I am a losing player at 15/30). On an upswing I usually play more.

Yupp, same here. Playing becomes boring during downswings. Learning becomes fun.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ewwwww

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
Well if you would stop capping rivers with Ace high you'd be much better off.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

~stephen

[/ QUOTE ]

can't you just say "thanks for seeing the wrong screen and thinking you rivered a boat-instead of drawing to a flush??" i mean i did just donate $120 to your cause didn't i??

so you're welcome....prick... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

-Barron

[DcifrThs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
yea, and if BARRY is having these swings, everybody is...he plays tiiiiiiight

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about that, I show your VP$IP as lower than mine /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

agg?? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

-Barron

[DeezNutz3]

The 10/20 fulls seem to not play as aggressive as the 15 game on PP but overall there are still a good number of fish.

[BigSkiRace]

I have been stuggling with this idea If I am beating a game or not not online but live, first I feel like Im winning in the game with winning sessions by my sample size is to small and there is no way to track my stats in a live game at a B and M. IMHO online you are either beating a game or not beating a game, there is no middle road....also your sample size is to small to really determine if your winning or not. Losing $2000 in the PP15 is a very common swing and they get alot worse

[youngin20]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How do you think the guy who takes a shot at 400-800 feels when he loses $15,000?

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, bad!

[/ QUOTE ]

how do you think davidross felt when he dropped like fifteen thou in 15/30? lol

[Tommy Angelo]

Here's what you do. Figure out how much bankroll you need to really be really comfortable in that game, really. Multiply by two. Gather that sum. Have it all in your account. Then take a seat.

Tommy

[Mikey]

You're right Tommy, especially times 2 part.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't want to stay at 10/20 because I don't like short handed play.

[/ QUOTE ]
So play full-table 10/20. Jumping to a game at five times the stakes you are used to is almost never a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm learning to multi-table and use the software (Pokertracker and Playerview) at the 3/6 level on a few Party skins. I comfortably play 20/40 in B&M. I've been told that the full Pary 5/10 and 10/20 games aren't that good, as the action is in the six player max games at those levels. So in my case I hope to jump directly from 3/6 to 15/30 (and probably only three table 15/30 where I five or six table now).

~ Rick

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm learning to multi-table and use the software (Pokertracker and Playerview) at the 3/6 level on a few Party skins. I comfortably play 20/40 in B&M.

[/ QUOTE ]
You sound just like me! I play 20/40 B&M and I just started playing online a couple weeks ago (I'm still playing as much B&M as ever as well). I'm trying to get a feel for the games and the software and I've so far only played 3/6 (and some $25 buyin no limit).

[ QUOTE ]
I've been told that the full Pary 5/10 and 10/20 games aren't that good, as the action is in the six player max games at those levels.

[/ QUOTE ]
Party is not the only cardroom on the Internet.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Party is not the only cardroom on the Internet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have accounts with the big four (if you count Paradise as one of the big four?) but mostly play one or two table tournaments for fun on the other sites.

IMO Party seems to do the best job marketing to weaker players plus it will download hand histories directly into your hard drive. That's great for data mining and game selection (with three skins, I can download hand histories for 12 games at once).

~ Rick