proposition bet on step 5s

[curtains]

My friend is going to bet me at 4-1 odds that no one busts during the first 10 hands of any given step 5. We would simply watch a Step 5 and if someone busts, I get $400, and if not he gets $100. I'm pretty sure this is a very good bet for me, especially based on the Step 5's I've played, although it's a reasonably small sample size. Any opinions?

[Pepsquad]

My man, RUN...don't walk to this bet!

[curtains]

Last 6 Ive seen tonight no one busted in round 1, but I think its better when its not 5 am.

[Irieguy]

It's quite possible your friend is the worst proposition gambler in the world.

Sounds like a strong candidate for a "best" friend.

Irieguy

[curtains]

Yeah I figured it was huge +Ev.

[curtains]

btw it probably doesnt mean anything, but no ones busted in the first 10 hands the last 10 step 5's I watched tonight.

[Barrett's Last Privateer]

Curtains,

Have you considered using ICM to work out if this is a good bet?

BLP

[curtains]

I tried but the numbers came out wrong.

[TheAmp]

Do you need a backer? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[skipperbob]

What are u doing awake @ computer at 3:00 AM /images/graemlins/confused.gif