Party 200 bubble decision

[Victor]

I kinda got addicted to these party tourneys. I play them to unwind but my roomate was watching today and disagreed with my play. I guess I will leave it up to the the forum.

4 players left, SB has 1800, BB has 1800, I have 4800 UTG and button has 1600.

Blinds are 200-400 with 6 hands left.

I have KJo. Whats my play?

Sorry if this is an obvious play, my tourney play is very unadvanced.

[Apathy]

PUSH!

I hope you won the bet.

[elsullio]

With everyone else having similar stacks and you being the only big stack, I would push here with almost any two, and certainly with KJ. 4 handed, most players are going to fold in order to put pressure on the other two short stacks, so you should take advantage of this situation before it gets down to 3 people.

[wiggs73]

Yep, rather easy push.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
I would push here with almost any two, and certainly with KJ. 4 handed, most players are going to fold in order to put pressure on the other two short stacks,

[/ QUOTE ]

I think with the stack sizes as is most players will call my raise with almost anything playable. The reason is that if they wait any longer their stacks will diminish by 1/3 and they will be essentially blinded out.

Put yourself in their situation, what would you call with?

[curtains]

I would go allin. Perfect time to use your bigstack, and you have a legitimate hand. No one wants to call you and come in 4th place, so they will likely fold better hands than yours.

[UMTerp]

Push, and your opponents would be wrong to call you with anything smaller than JJ or so.

[Bigwig]

Pushy push push.

[wiggs73]

[ QUOTE ]
I think with the stack sizes as is most players will call my raise with almost anything playable. The reason is that if they wait any longer their stacks will diminish by 1/3 and they will be essentially blinded out.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I see what you're saying, but you'll find that more often than not, they will actually fold hands that may be correct to call with for fear of busting out on the bubble.

You won't find a better time to bully than the situation you described... you're on the bubble with a big stack and the other 3 are similar sized and a lot smaller than yours.

[shoeman]

I disagree. I think you should raise to 5xBB.

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree. I think you should raise to 5xBB

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the same. look at their stack sizes.

[curtains]

I think hes joking

[Victor]

How is it wrong for my opps to call with 1010 or any pocket pair?

[shoeman]

[ QUOTE ]

I think hes joking

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was. Forgot the smiley face. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
How is it wrong for my opps to call with 1010 or any pocket pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one situation where looking at ICM results can be very helpful (on the bubble, no real small stacks). I think even curtains will agree. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Situations here can get a little complex with four people, but I'll simplify it a bit. You open-push, button folds, SB folds, and it's up to the big blind to act.

If he folds, the stacks are 5400-1600-1600-1400, and he has a 0.1921 equity in the prize pool (from ICM).

If he calls and loses, he obviously has a 0.0000 equity.

If he calls and wins, the stacks are 3000-1600-1600-3800, and he has a 0.3245 equity.

Therefore, for calling to be correct for him from a monetary (not chip count) standpoint, he'd need to win a showdown with you with a frequenct greater than X if he calls, where X is:

0.3245(X) + 0.0000(1-X) = 0.1921

X is 0.592

So he'd need to win a showdown ~60% of the time if he calls for the call to be profitable in the long run. TT and 99 actually probably do fit this bill (though not against KJ, but he doesn't know your cards), but small pairs don't. This is a situation (which is common on the bubble, and absolutely essential to master for successful higher-level SNG play) that ChipEV and $EV differ greatly.

And just as a side note, you (as the big stack who pushed) don't want the small stack to call with a small pair either; it's the two players that folded that would gain all the equity if he calls.

[curtains]

Hey ICM Makes sense here it sounds like from the BB's point of view! Funny enough I'm sure I'd play almost identically to how the ICM would have me play without actually needing to input the numbers.

[jcm4ccc]

So what did you do in this situation? What did your roommate say you should do?

You said you would "leave it up to the forum" to decide the correct play. I believe the forum has spoken clearly that this is a push situation.

[hurlyburly]

Fold. Conserve your chips for the increased blinds.

[sofere]

Remember though, you must base your decision on what the other players will do, not what they should do.
Which is why I don't advocate pushing UTG with almost any 2 repeatedly. Having said that, KJ is pretty strong...bring out the cow.

[curtains]

Yeah I don't generally move allin with any 2 here. KJ is definitely good enough however.

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
Remember though, you must base your decision on what the other players will do, not what they should do.


[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, but he said this was a $200 Buy-In. Most players have a general idea of what they're doing at least. It's a clear mistake not to push in this situation. Heck, you have the best hand a good percentage of the time here 4-handed.

[Myst]

Push with any 2 broadway, any ace.

[Victor]

Thanks for the replies guys.

I pushed and lost to the sb who had 99. Eventually I took 4th. O

ne thing no one mentioned was that I was next to blind and if I lost the blinds would be quite large (they were 200-400.)

My roomate advocated folding saying that I had a fair amount of fold equity since the blinds wouldnt hurt me too much. Furthermore I would likely be called by A-high or any PP and then be in a coinflip situation that could devastate my stack size.

Essentially, he said that by folding I was ensuring a place in the money while if I pushed I would open myself up to be reduced without much chip gain. I felt at the time that
a) there is a large chance I will steal the blinds

b) if called I will likely be in a 50/50 or 40/60 situation to eliminate someone and place.

c) if I lose I still have enough chips that I can survive.

Still, I think it raises a good point that by NOT playing a hand there I am almost assured money.

[citanul]

Move down to the 10s. Immediately.

citanul

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
200 decision... my tourney play is very unadvanced.

[/ QUOTE ]

So is your discipline. Consider playing at an appropriate limit unless you are independently wealthy.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Hey ICM Makes sense here it sounds like from the BB's point of view! Funny enough I'm sure I'd play almost identically to how the ICM would have me play without actually needing to input the numbers.

[/ QUOTE ]

The enlightenment begins...

eastbay /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[curtains]

Cmon cmon, I never said it didn't have any use, but personally I think I'll estimate the right answer during game play enough so that it doesn't matter. When I do make the wrong play according to ICM, I believe it'll either be close enough to not matter much or that I'll disagree with the ICM anyway.
This hand, from the smaller stack's point of view, does do a very good job of showing off why the calling standards here have to be extremely tight, with proof from the ICM.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

Cmon cmon, I never said it didn't have any use,


[/ QUOTE ]

I was just being a wiseass. It wasn't a serious reply.

[ QUOTE ]

but personally I think I'll estimate the right answer during game play enough so that it doesn't matter.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, because you're already an experienced player with a strong intuitive grasp of all the variables. Most players aren't and that's why they're here posting hands.

[ QUOTE ]

When I do make the wrong play according to ICM, I believe it'll either be close enough to not matter much or that I'll disagree with the ICM anyway.
This hand, from the smaller stack's point of view, does do a very good job of showing off why the calling standards here have to be extremely tight, with proof from the ICM.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

eastbay

[Victor]

[ QUOTE ]
So is your discipline. Consider playing at an appropriate limit unless you are independently wealthy.

[/ QUOTE ]

so you are saying its a fold?

[citanul]

His post actually had nothing to do with the hand. It was what you could call a "meta" post. His point is that if you don't know what to do here, you shouldn't be playing these limits unless you are prepared to be one of the players likely to be giving money to the table, not taking it away.

I might be making an ass of myself here, of course, if it turns out that my opinion of "push" is totally incorrect.

Additionally, your question about the "wouldn't he be correct to call with pairs TT and larger" or whatever it was shows a very common problem that people new to sngs often have. It's monsters under the bed redux. A) They don't get to see your cards before they act B) They don't always have any of the hands that is in the exact set "favorites over your hand" C) even if they do, it's sometimes correct for them to fold, and sophisticated players (like you will run in to often at the 200s) will know this.

Like I and eastbay said, if you don't know what you're doing with a huge stack nad a good hand with large blinds, you should not be playing this high, unless you can afford to do so purely for the entertainment value.

citanul

[Victor]

you still have not given me the reasons why it is correct to push here.

[ QUOTE ]
Like I and eastbay said, if you don't know what you're doing with a huge stack nad a good hand with large blinds, you should not be playing this high, unless you can afford to do so purely for the entertainment value.



[/ QUOTE ]

I appreciate your concern and asking these questions probably unmasks my shortcomings but I would rather have reasons or at least considerations about the actual hand. Anyway, assume I am independently wealthy.

[ChrisV]

Neither you nor your roommate will beat the 200s with that unhealthy emphasis on survival with such a big stack. The worst that can happen to you is that your stack will be reduced to 3000, which is still plenty.

I wouldn't go so far as to push with any two in this spot, but KJ is not even close. Your opponents would be very foolish to call you with ace-rag. As one of your opponents I would fold hand as good as AT.

On the bubble, the role of the big stack is to apply pressure to the short stacks, not to survive. And there is very little the short stacks can do about it without hurting themselves even worse. If you don't know why this is I recommend not... i mean... playing the 200s a lot. During the evening, Australian Central Summer Time, if possible.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather have reasons or at least considerations about the actual hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Victor,

In a typical $215 game I agree with the consensus of push. Here's how I approach it analytically:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/KJ-UTG.PNG

I assume for this analysis that all three players are going to call if and only if they pick up 77+, or AT+. No one wants to bust on the bubble here and the decent players at $215 know that calling is not to their advantage without a big hand. So there's a balance here between three things:

1 - The likelhood that I'll pick up the blinds, increasing my advantage (or equity, or $EV) moderately

2 - The likelihood that I'll get called and lose, decreasing my equity substantially.

3 - The likelihood that I'll get called and win, increasing my equity substantially.

As you can see there's about a 78% chance that you won't get called with these assumptions, so 78% of the time you pick up the blinds.

The rest of the time, you get called, and win about a third of the time and lose the rest, as you are a dog to almost all calling hands here.

When you put all of the probabilities and equities together using some fairly reasonable approximations, you can estimate that overall you increase your equity, relative to folding, by more than 1% of the prize pool or about $23 in this case. Therefore, you should choose the option of moving in over folding.

eastbay

PS To pre-empt the usual question, there's a URL in the status bar text of the app in the screenshot.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
you still have not given me the reasons why it is correct to push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, if you really want an analysis, here it is. Suppose we make your push range UTG here include the following hands:

AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K2s, QJs-Q8s, JTs-J9s, T9s, AKo-A2o, KQo-K2o, QJo-Q8o, JTo-J9o, T9o

You probably think this range is pretty loose. Suppose you go ahead and explain to your opponents before the hand that you're going allin with the hand range above. Now you get dealt KJ and push - they don't know which of the above hands you have.

Now look at UMTerp's ICM analysis above. The ICM is a model that replaces pot-odds type calculations for SNGs. It gives the value of a play in terms of change in your share of the prize pool.

The ICM analysis says that BB needs to be a 59.2% favourite to call. I won't repeat the analysis for the other players at the table but it will be pretty similar for all of them.

Here are a list of hands that are a 59.2% or better favourite against the range of push hands I gave above:

AKo-AJo, AKs-ATs, AA-88.

Not much, is it? The model tells the other players that if they call with hands as good as 77, ATo, KQs, they are losing money.

Players in the $200's know this. If anything, they are a little TOO acutely aware of the dangers of busting out on the bubble.

It is very unlikely that any of the players have one of the hands mentioned above, so you can go ahead and push with the above range, even tell them you're doing it and there is nothing they can do about it.

You'll notice KJ is not even close to the worst hand in the range above. That's why people are telling you that pushing KJ is not a close decision. Even though you got caught by one of the hands SB was correct to call with - 99 - you were actually still in really good shape, because you had one of the hands 99 doesn't really hurt (and not K2, 33, T9 etc etc). And if SB had known you had KJ, he would have been right to fold.

EDIT: Just read eastbay's post above. Notice how similar his guess of what hands they should call is to my analysis. Note also what this single hand costs in dollar terms. I only make slightly more than that per tourney I play, so if I failed to push this hand, it would be equivalent to me burning my profit for the entire tourney. That's how important and clear-cut this push is.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

You'll notice KJ is not even close to the worst hand in the range above. That's why people are telling you that pushing KJ is not a close decision. Even though you got caught by one of the hands SB was correct to call with - 99 - you were actually still in really good shape, because you had one of the hands 99 doesn't really hurt (and not K2, 33, T9 etc etc). And if SB had known you had KJ, he would have been right to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

His position disadvantage makes it maybe a little closer than you are letting on here. Take a look at my calculation in the post above. It is awfully close to your assumptions about calling hands, but includes a little more detail about carrying it out from there.

eastbay

[ChrisV]

I read it. I don't see that it's close. $23 is an awful lot of $EV for a single hand.

Run the numbers for some other hands for comparison - what if he had AK? K9? K2?

[ChrisV]

Interesting the way there is a dynamic equilibrium between the hands you're pushing and the hands they should call with - i.e. the tighter you get the tighter they should get, but the tighter they get the looser you should get, if you follow me.

Do you think there's an easy way to discover the game-theory best range for each player, or do you just have to brute-force it?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I read it. I don't see that it's close. $23 is an awful lot of $EV for a single hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, maybe we're quibbling over "close" here. I don't think it's close enough to consider folding.

[ QUOTE ]

Run the numbers for some other hands for comparison - what if he had AK? K9? K2?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, important concept. It's not close in terms of his hand, and that's not what I meant to imply. It's only close in terms of other factors, primarily the calling standards of his opponents.

To demonstrate:

Assume he has 98o. It's still basically +1%.

However, assume that the players are lost or joyriding at $215 (or more importantly, a $10+1 player is reading this thread) and will call with any pair, any ace, or KQ. Now it's nearly a wash.

eastbay

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting the way there is a dynamic equilibrium between the hands you're pushing and the hands they should call with - i.e. the tighter you get the tighter they should get, but the tighter they get the looser you should get, if you follow me.

Do you think there's an easy way to discover the game-theory best range for each player, or do you just have to brute-force it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure. As a philosophical (and practical, I guess) point, I'd rather focus on how to exploit imperfect play than try to find equilibria for perfect play.

eastbay

[rbilabronze]

[ QUOTE ]


Therefore, for calling to be correct for him from a monetary (not chip count) standpoint, he'd need to win a showdown with you with a frequenct greater than X if he calls, where X is:

0.3245(X) + 0.0000(1-X) = 0.1921

X is 0.592



[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay, this is the analysis I was referring to in my post on your forum from the other day. I think it would be a great feature in your power tools to have this calculation performed and also a list of calling hands that meet the test (i.e., win frequency greater than 59.2%) based on a selected range of push hands.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Therefore, for calling to be correct for him from a monetary (not chip count) standpoint, he'd need to win a showdown with you with a frequenct greater than X if he calls, where X is:

0.3245(X) + 0.0000(1-X) = 0.1921

X is 0.592



[/ QUOTE ]

Eastbay, this is the analysis I was referring to in my post on your forum from the other day. I think it would be a great feature in your power tools to have this calculation performed and also a list of calling hands that meet the test (i.e., win frequency greater than 59.2%) based on a selected range of push hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Working on the interface as we speak. The analysis is already in there.

eastbay

[hansarnic]

[ QUOTE ]

If he folds, the stacks are 5400-1600-1600-1400, and he has a 0.1921 equity in the prize pool (from ICM).

If he calls and loses, he obviously has a 0.0000 equity.

If he calls and wins, the stacks are 3000-1600-1600-3800, and he has a 0.3245 equity.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, though obviously in reality these numbers need to be modified because of his position & the blind size.

If he folds his equity is lower as he is forced to try to steal from or through big stack with high blinds - not good.

Likewise if he wins his equity is higher than ICM would suggest because he has great steal equity next hand from his SB and after that the small stacks are facing the blinds.

Therefore I don't think BB needs to be much of a favourite to call here.

[kamrann]

I don't yet play at the $200 level, and am very new to all of this ICM/equity analysis, so I may be way off here, but I really don't see how it's such an obvious push.

This $23 gain may seem a lot, but it's based on a number of assumptions and approximations. Adjust a few of them, for example loosen the calling standards of your opponents, and I would imagine it could very quickly become a $23 loss?

Also, I find it very strange the way so many on this thread have made a point of the fact you have KJ, making it more of a no-brainer than if you had any two. Many have given the impression they are going to push instantly with any ace or a couple of broadways. But your cards only matter when you get called, and you only get called when someone else has a good hand. And since statistically it's much more likely to find someone holding a good ace than a good pair, pushing with any ace or broadways seems like a horrible idea to me, since you're much more likely to find yourself dominated.

I would imagine that, assuming the same calling standards, a push with A9 would be even worse than KJ, possibly with negative equity, whereas something like T9s would be in better shape than the KJ. What does your software have to say about this eastbay?

Plus, further up hansarnic made a very important point that most seem to be ignoring, namely the other factors ignored by ICM, relating to your position and the blinds after this hand, which would increase the value of folding and reduce that of pushing somewhat.

EDIT: Also, I assume that this ICM works out your equity based purely on stack sizes, and so is assuming everyone is of equal ability. But since you should only be playing in a game if you think you have an edge, then it should always be in your mind to avoid very close and coin-flip situations, since you figure to get better ones.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't yet play at the $200 level, and am very new to all of this ICM/equity analysis, so I may be way off here, but I really don't see how it's such an obvious push.


[/ QUOTE ]

As I already mentioned I think some posters are overstating it. However...

[ QUOTE ]

This $23 gain may seem a lot, but it's based on a number of assumptions and approximations. Adjust a few of them, for example loosen the calling standards of your opponents, and I would imagine it could very quickly become a $23 loss?


[/ QUOTE ]

I already pointed out that if you loosen them up significantly, it becomes a toss-up. A 1% loss is not likely under any reasonable assumption. Remember, this is a $215, and it probably isn't filled with complete chooks.

[ QUOTE ]

Also, I find it very strange the way so many on this thread have made a point of the fact you have KJ, making it more of a no-brainer than if you had any two. Many have given the impression they are going to push instantly with any ace or a couple of broadways. But your cards only matter when you get called, and you only get called when someone else has a good hand. And since statistically it's much more likely to find someone holding a good ace than a good pair, pushing with any ace or broadways seems like a horrible idea to me, since you're much more likely to find yourself dominated.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sort of. This has been discussed many times. My website has some precomputed analysis along these lines here:

http://sitngo-analyzer.com/poker/hand-rankings.html

The third column is particularly interesting, IMO. JTs is not all that far behind A9o, for example.

[ QUOTE ]

I would imagine that, assuming the same calling standards, a push with A9 would be even worse than KJ, possibly with negative equity, whereas something like T9s would be in better shape than the KJ. What does your software have to say about this eastbay?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not going to run it but I don't think the effect is as pronounced as you might think. It certainly depends on how many K's you expect might call. If the answer is "none", then A9 is in worse shape than if the answer is "some" or "a lot".

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: Also, I assume that this ICM works out your equity based purely on stack sizes, and so is assuming everyone is of equal ability. But since you should only be playing in a game if you think you have an edge, then it should always be in your mind to avoid very close and coin-flip situations, since you figure to get better ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Old news. The question is how much of an edge can you push, and in my opinion and experience, in a typical game with nothing fluky going on, 1% is good enough.

eastbay

[imported_bingobazza]

push, push, push...good chance they fold, unlucky if called and dominated, but no real disaster, and decent chance of winning V AQ, underpair etc.

[kamrann]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for that link, the table looks very useful. It does back up a few of my instincts regarding when to push all in and what with. But I think the most obvious thing it shows is that it's really all so close. Which in general I guess emphasises the importance of fold equity, especially in cases like this one: in short, if there's a good chance everyone will fold to your push and the blinds are significant, it's probably a good move with most any 2 cards since you probably won't be all that far behind whatever.

Sorry if I'm bringing up things that have been discussed over and over before. I've just joined the forum, and it's clearly heavier on the technical discussion than another forum I've posted on for the last couple of years. Interestingly though a lot of what I've read of these in-depth analyses so far seems to back up the habits I've learnt through experience, and general instinct. Which I guess isn't surprising at all really... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I checked out your software on your site too, looks very interesting. Has inspired me to go back and try to finally finish some of the various poker-related coding projects I've worked on at various times over the last few years. I'm a pretty good finisher at the poker table but not when it comes to programming. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif