KK decision, "advanced" thinking [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

View Full Version : KK decision, "advanced" thinking

Emmitt2222

02-23-2005, 12:42 AM

I'll be the first to admit that I am not very good at this game. I'm a pretty ABC thinker so when this situation came up I was pretty happy at how I was able actually to think it through. For most this may be typical move, so is there anything else I should be thinking or doing in this hand?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 6 folds, BB 3-bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero caps, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Although this villian just sat at this table so I have no read on him [I think I may recognize the name as a decent player], when he 3bets out of the blind I get scared of a big hand so Im just waiting for that A to hit on the flop and curse the poker gods.

Flop: (13.50 SB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB bets, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

So there is the freakin' ace I was just praying for. Piss. But here is where I actually thought about the situation. UTG+1 complicates things a bit but he is such a complete fish I just am going to leave him out for now.

Of all of the hands that a logical player would 3bet with out of the blinds there is AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ and maybe 1010 and AQ. Of those 7 hands, there are actually only 3 that contain an ace. Of course he most likely does not have the other K's so its maybe a 50/50.

When he bets out I figure an agressive player will do this even if they dont have an ace because their hand is so strong. I figure he most likely doesnt have AA here because they would most likely slowplay it, but it is possible.
If he does have an ace or two I figure he will do one of two things if I raise him
a] 3bet me and I will fold
b] c/r me on the turn and I will fold

When he only calls my raise I become more confident that I may have him beat.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

So here when I bet and he just calls and UTG+1 folds I really get confident that I may have the best hand.

River: (11.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

The Q on the river scares me a bit because one of his possible holdings may be QQ and he would c/r me. He also could possibly have been slowplaying me the whole time. I figure at this point a JJ or 1010 is probably not going to call one more bet so I check it through. Correct?

So how was my first real attempt at thinking on a higher level? Did I do everything right here or did I completely biff it? Hooray for thinking!

The-Matador

02-23-2005, 01:16 AM

I think you played this really well and your thought process was a good one. I would have bet again on the river, but it's a close call. A lot of players would shrivel up even when they have an ace on the flop (fearing you have hit a set or have a better kicker), so you have to be careful, but overall good job.

Fat Nicky

02-23-2005, 01:29 AM

I think you reasoning is logical. Nice flop raise, and check behind on the river.

sfer

02-23-2005, 02:09 AM

I this spot I just start calling. Calling is fun. If he checks, I bet. Not really complicated. He's like 50/50 a big Ace or a big pair, so I want a bet on every street. I'm in bad position to try to blow-out UTG+1, so I call.

Art Vandelay

02-23-2005, 02:20 AM

I like the logic behind your play. You were looking for information with your flop raise and you got exactly what you were looking for (and the "good news" part of that information too).

I'd check the river down here also for the reasons you mention.

Entity

02-23-2005, 02:24 AM

chesspain

02-23-2005, 02:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Of all of the hands that a logical player would 3bet with out of the blinds there is AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ and maybe 1010 and AQ. Of those 7 hands, there are actually only 3 that contain an ace. Of course he most likely does not have the other K's so its maybe a 50/50.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot depends on whether the BB would three-bet with AQo.

[ QUOTE ]
If he does have an ace or two I figure he will do one of two things if I raise him
a] 3bet me and I will fold
b] c/r me on the turn and I will fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Or he could be ahead but be planning a stop and go if a heart doesn't fall on the turn...or maybe he has AQo but will shut down because of fear that you have AK. The impetus for your flop raise seems to be gather information, since it does nothing to protect your hand, and doesn't seem to be laden with value. Unfortunately, as is often the case, the information you receive will often be unclear and not worth the cost. Furthermore, say that your opponent has an underpair--do you want him folding to the flop raise or checkfolding the turn, when he may be drawing to only two outs? Consequently, I like just calling the flop.

[ QUOTE ]
When he only calls my [flop] raise I become more confident that I may have him beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

See the comments above.

[ QUOTE ]
The Q on the river scares me a bit because one of his possible holdings may be QQ and he would c/r me. He also could possibly have been slowplaying me the whole time. I figure at this point a JJ or 1010 is probably not going to call one more bet so I check it through. Correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone who made it to the river with JJ or TT is probably calling the river bet. However, you are now behind way more than 50% of the likely hands you have presumed you were possibly facing, and no better hand is folding. So checking behind seems right to me.

wuwei

02-23-2005, 02:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I this spot I just start calling. Calling is fun. If he checks, I bet. Not really complicated. He's like 50/50 a big Ace or a big pair, so I want a bet on every street. I'm in bad position to try to blow-out UTG+1, so I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like sfer's line, but I do think that your thinking on this hand is good, Emmitt.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

The problems I see with Emmitt's line are:

1. You have to be very confident in your read that he wont 3bet the flop without an A. This is the minor problem.

2. For every bet you save by folding your 2nd best hand, you'll lose bets if he folds his TT, JJ, etc to the flop raise. If not more.

I like calling... although UTG's presence complicates things on the flop. I can't decide if it changes things though.

Shillx

02-23-2005, 03:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I this spot I just start calling. Calling is fun. If he checks, I bet. Not really complicated. He's like 50/50 a big Ace or a big pair, so I want a bet on every street. I'm in bad position to try to blow-out UTG+1, so I call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perfect. Either let him best the best hand or the worst hand. It won't change either way very often. The pot is big enough such that I can calldown profitably. I want that 3rd person in as much as possible to soften the blow those times he has an ace.

Brad

sthief09

02-23-2005, 03:47 AM

FYI you shouldn't fold the flop if he 3-bets. set value

Emmitt2222

02-23-2005, 03:55 AM

Set value? Do I really have the odds to do that when I'm not even sure they are 2 full outs?

Anyway, in the end he had JJ so my logic was pretty dead on the whole way and I was really elated about the mild form of higher thinking I did. After reading these responses and even going back to HEFAP I read the exact same think that sfer said to do, call down all the way. In this case he did call the flop raise and the turn bet but many people won't. I could have gained .5BB more also if he bluffed all 3 streets or if he checked to me on the river and I bet and he called. So basically from this hand I learned that I am improving but have a long way to go.

beachbum

02-23-2005, 04:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Set value? Do I really have the odds to do that when I'm not even sure they are 2 full outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, let's say he 3 bets your flop raise and UTG+1 folds. Now your getting 19.5:1 on your call. Odds to hit your set are 23.5:1 at this point. With implied odds, you're right in calling since you should at least get 2 more BB out of him if he's got an ace.

This is just for the fact that your positive he has an Ace. Yes you don't have 2 full outs because of the small chance he has AA or beats your set of KK with a heart-flush redraw. However, there's much more of a chance that you're ahead in the hand than this scenario.

bernie

02-23-2005, 07:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Of all of the hands that a logical player would 3bet with out of the blinds there is AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ and maybe 1010 and AQ. Of those 7 hands, there are actually only 3 that contain an ace.

[/ QUOTE ]

Figure how many ways to make all these hands. 24-18 with these hands that he has an A. 4-3. (im tired, it's late, I hope those numbers are right. Yawn...) It's a little diffent than being a 7-3 favorite that he doesn't have one.

Nice read though.

b

bernie

02-23-2005, 07:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, say that your opponent has an underpair--do you want him folding to the flop raise or checkfolding the turn,

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has a heart in his pair, I wouldn't mind him folding to a flop raise incorrectly.

b