Live NL tourney QQ

[Bill Smith]

NL Hold 'em, 7 handed.

Reads: Table is LAGish except for:
- BB, a certified TAG, ABC player
- UTG+1 mixes up his play well and is comparatively tight. Only good read is that he likes to limp Ace-rag, but he's otherwise tough.

Blinds are 200/400, and are going up to 400/800 next hand.

Hero is UTG with QQ and raises to 1200, UTG+1, Button, and BB all call.

Flop (t5000): 7 6 2 rainbow
BB checks, Hero bets (t4000), UTG+1 raises (t9000) all-in, the other two get out of the way.

Hero has about t10500 and the pot sits at t18000, and I will reserve all other comments until I hear the wisdom of the forum.

[willie]

call, but cry when he turns over 77.

hang on, let me reread the situation again.


k this is really pretty read dependent for me.

i don't see AA/kk here, typically a player would reraise here to further deter other callers from behind.

88- jj are possible....

I'm not sure if a set would reraise the flop here....

This is a really tough spot because you're either well ahead or waaaay behind.

The status of the hand is further complicated by you having to call 5000 more into the pot, leaving you with with 5k if you're wrong, and owing 1200 in blinds in the next 2 hands alone....

in the heat of the moment i'd call, but the more i think about it here, i'd fold and fight with a decent stack....

awful spot to be in.

[EverettKings]

I call instantly.

This is not a tough decision. You have an overpair on a beatiful board and are getting 3.6:1 on your money. He could have 99 or some other non-set underpair, A7s, and lots of other crap that you are destroying. Sure he could have slowplayed AA or KK or made a set but those are just a few of many hands he could have. And if he made a junk 2 pair you have many redraws.

By straight pot odds you have to be MORE than 80% sure that you're beaten to make this fold correct. I can't fathom a fold here without some miraculous read.

I am guessing that you only post this because he turned over a set and you think that because you lost the pot, you played incorrectly. That's not poker. Decisions, not results my friend.

-Kings

[sloth469]

You CAN NOT get away from this. He'll have 88-JJ more times than he'll have a set, AA, KK and even QQ are possible but unlikely concidering. If he has a set you still have 2 outs.

I call here at least 90% of the time.

-sloth

[tiger7210]

I make a crying call here and look for him to turn over 99-JJ's but i wouldn't be shocked if he hit his set. I just cant see him hitting his set and trying to push the table out on a flop like that. I could even see AK trying to make a play here. I just can't see folding here for 5000 more into that pot. Hope it worked out.

[Bill Smith]

[ QUOTE ]
in the heat of the moment i'd call, but the more i think about it here, i'd fold and fight with a decent stack.... awful spot to be in.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly what I did... I counted it down, got ready to push, then stopped, agonized for a minute, and folded. During the break, I rethought it and really kicked myself for it.

The first hand back from break, the same guy raises 3x BB preflop UTG, got 2 callers, the flop comes Q77. SB bets half the pot, UTG goes all-in with AKs without even a backdoor draw.

I'm very unhappy I made that fold, even if he did have it.

[JohnG]

Usually an easy call. When raised allin on these flop ratios, (and hence being given over 2-1 pot odds in this example), opponent could easily have a number of hands you bury such as overpairs to the board, hoping you missed with AK. With such a small allin raise, they could be going with their hand because they can't just call. Need to be very sure they have you beat to fold when getting this good a price.