My first post - please advise with this hand

[jenson]

Hi all,

This is my first post here. I've been a regular reader for the past month or so. I've been playing SNG's on UB for the past couple of months.

After my first 105 sessions my ROI is 24% and my ITM is 46%. I've got a lot of 3rd place finishes. lol.

I am playing about 75% $11 and 25% $22 SNGs

Can you please critique this hand? I think it was a good fold but I'm second guessing myself big time.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1000)
BB (t2430)
UTG (t1280)
UTG+1 (t895)
MP1 (t1185)
Hero (t1030)
MP3 (t1005)
CO (t320)
Button (t855)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t70</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG calls t80.

Flop: (t330) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t175</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t855</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t1360

Thanks,
jenson

[wiggs73]

Hm, I would have either just called the pre-flop raise or raised bigger, in the neighborhood of 200. No way he's folding for an extra 80 chips, so you either need to call or put him to a real decision. And in raising bigger, you'll get a better picture of where your jacks stand as well.

After the flop, I think you played the hand about right. I can maybe see someone doing this, trying to make a move with AK, but you're most likely beaten. I have to think if they were going to make a move w/ AK or something, they would have just bet out with it.

[willperkins]

Well. lets see. Preflop, UTG raises 3 1/2 X BB, you double his bet and he calls.

On the flop he check raises you all in.

Your options:

1. Push your last t705 into the pot. You are getting 1.71 to 1 pot odds with the 4th best starting hand in poker. If you win, you will have t1915 and should make the money.

2. Fold. You will still have t705 and the blinds are only t20, so you still have plenty of chips left.

My decision:

What do you think he rasied with UTG?

AA,KK,QQ, or AK, maybe AQ?

If it is AK or AQ, we have a race and you are a slight favorite with the correct pot odds.

If it is AA,KK or QQ, you are in big trouble.

I choose fold. My best senario is to hope for a race. Since I still have plenty of chips, I see no reason to gamble at this time.

If it is an overpair, I am in big trouble.

Fold and live to fight another day.

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
If it is AK or AQ, we have a race and you are a slight favorite with the correct pot odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

There's been a flop. And stuff.

[Apathy]

PF I would just call but the way you played the hand PF I would have called the all in and have expected to see 77-1010 maybe even 33-55.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
PF I would just call but the way you played the hand PF I would have called the all in and have expected to see 77-1010 maybe even 33-55.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty much my thoughts

the flop bet looks completely like a missed ak....so he's gettin in with his pair, i think you have him in bad shape- i'd suck it up and call here.

[snapfc01]

ya... unless its AK or AQ/images/graemlins/spade.gif there is not raise here

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PF I would just call but the way you played the hand PF I would have called the all in and have expected to see 77-1010 maybe even 33-55.

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty much my thoughts

the flop bet looks completely like a missed ak....so he's gettin in with his pair, i think you have him in bad shape- i'd suck it up and call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would expect to see a flush draw with overs. I would have expect AA/KK to reraise you preflop so I think the odds of an over pair is low. Your bet looks like a weak continuation bet so he could think his AK is ok. I am sure he is pretty confidant that you don't have a 6.

[bones]

You aren't playing Jacks for set value here. You raised because you figured to have the best hand pre-flop. Nothing has changed. Had an overcard hit, I guess you can get away with folding. If you think you're against an overpair, why bother raising PF to begin with?

Quit over-thinking. Having JJ here IS the best fight. Take it to him.

[curtains]

Id raise more preflop (raise enough so there is a chance he folds...he wont fold for 80 more no matter what), and Id call on the flop. His betting is too large for me to put him on a 6.

[lorinda]

Nothing has changed

The amount of information we have about our opponents hand has changed.

Lori

[jenson]

Thanks to everyone for your thoughts. It is really helpful and I hope to be able to contribute to this awesome forum going forward. I consider this and the Harrington book to be the two best resources for NL Holdem around.

Some thoughts on your responses:

1. "Id raise more preflop (raise enough so there is a chance he folds...he wont fold for 80 more no matter what)"

I agree. The bet size should have been larger. I see that now in retrospect. However, at the very least my raise should have shown strength on my part.

2. "I would have expect AA/KK to reraise you preflop so I think the odds of an over pair is low".

Good point. That’s why it’s so hard to reconcile his post flop all-in.

3. "your bet looks like a weak continuation bet"

lol. I agree with you. In retrospect, I think I should have bet in the range of 250 - 330 (pot). Harrington would have been disappointed with the ½ pot size bet.

4. "expected to see 77-1010 maybe even 33-55."

I just can't see that. Why raise 3.5 times the BB UTG so early in the tourney with only a medium to small pair?

5. "You aren't playing Jacks for set value here. You raised because you figured to have the best hand pre-flop. Nothing has changed."

You are right that I thought I had the best hand pre-flop. However, he went all-in after I re-raised is pre-flop bet and raised on the flop. I've shown a lot of strength and he goes all-in. I think I'm beat here.


In conclusion, if I had the hand to do over again I would:
1. Raise more preflop
2. Bet more on the flop
3. If he STILL goes all-in I think I have to fold, although I'd have a lot less chips than how I played it the first time.

Thanks again for all your input. This forum rocks!

jenson

[curtains]

Its important to almost always raise an amount preflop where your opponent at least has a chance to fold. Making a raise early in a tournament that will be called 100% of the time is usually wrong.

2nd important thing that you need to remember is that most players are idiots. Just because it seems weird to you to raise 3.5x to 5x the BB with a pocketpair UTG, doesnt mean that people won't do this. Whatever you do, don't give your opponents too much credit in low limit events unless they have proven themselves first.

[lorinda]

2nd important thing that you need to remember is that most players are idiots

This needs repeating.

Play simple and effective against 90% of players and don't sit down against the other 10%

Lori

[curtains]

Its important to almost always raise an amount preflop where your opponent at least has a chance to fold. Making a raise early in a tournament that will be called 100% of the time is usually wrong.


btw I may have been unclear. Sometimes youll make a raise that will obviously be called because someone is pot committed, but then you are doing it based on the value of your hand.

What I mean is that if 2 people limp for 15, don't raise to 45, because they arent going to both fold. Or if someone raises to 100 and the blinds were 25-50, don't reraise to 200, because again they aren't folding. This holds true even with big hands like AA.

[curtains]

How come I am a giant idiot at formatting my posts? They always come out so yucky looking. Someone tell me the secrets please!!

[1C5]

Just leave spaces in the posts.

Like this and then it looks better and is easy to read.

Pretty simple. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[curtains]

Thanks I fixed them!

[1C5]

They look much better. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[ZeeJustin]

Since he didn't reraise preflop, there's no reason to put him on AA KK or QQ, so I would call this all-in on the flop.

[jcm4ccc]

I disagree with those who say he should have raised more preflop. I don't think the point was to make the UTG fold (at these levels, they never fold once they have raised). The point was to make the other five people following fold, so that you have UTG heads up.

Let's say you raised it to 300, and UTG goes all-in. Now you probably have to call because you are pot committed, while hoping that you are facing AK, rather than QQ, KK, or AA.

Or let's say you raise it to 300, and UTG calls. Now you have a pot with 630 chips, and you only have 700 chips in your pile. Now suppose the flop comes Queen high or King high. Because you made the pot so big, there are now only two ways to play it: all-in or check/fold.

By keeping the pot at a manageable level, you have more options pre-flop (you could fold to an all-in, if you wanted to) and on the flop. It's easier to win it if an overcard hits, or to get away from the hand if that's want you want to do (though I don't think he should have gotten away from this hand--he should have called the all-in). You have an opportunity to outplay your opponent with a hand that might be second-best.