Interesting bubble play

[TheAmp]

Call 99 on BB even though button is about to bust?

I figured SB will push any hand here, thus I should be a big favorite. If I win I will have 1500 chips: this would not only very likely get me in the money, but will allow me to play on as well.

On the other hand, I can fold and wait to see if the shorter stack will survive his blinds. In this case I am a favorite to win third, but its almost impossible to do better.

Math experts can help me out here...

What is the range of my calling hands here (in general)?

(He won with K7, but I like my call)


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t756)
UTG (t2270)
Button (t86)
SB (t6888)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t3100</font>, Hero calls t456 (All-In).

Flop: (t3856) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t3856) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t3856) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t3856

[Apathy]

This is a clear clear fold. Not close at all.

I might call QQ (maybe, but probably not)

I would call KK and AA but not AK

[Irieguy]

ICM says you have 20% equity if you fold. You have 27% equity if you call and win.

Therefore, you need to be a 3 to 1 favorite against a random hand (assuming he'll raise with any 2).

Somebody can pokerstove 99 against random, but I'm pretty sure it isn't a 3 to 1 favorite.

Any non-pair hand is certainly out. So there's only going to be a couple of hands with which you can make this call.

Irieguy

[ReDeYES88]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM says you have 20% equity if you fold. You have 27% equity if you call and win.

Therefore, you need to be a 3 to 1 favorite against a random hand (assuming he'll raise with any 2).

Somebody can pokerstove 99 against random, but I'm pretty sure it isn't a 3 to 1 favorite.

Any non-pair hand is certainly out. So there's only going to be a couple of hands with which you can make this call.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

pretty close . . ..

Hand 1 72.0573 % { 9h9d }
Hand 2: 27.9427 % { random }

[TheAmp]

Thanks a lot everybody.

This site has heads up percentages against random hands:

http://www.thepokerforum.com/pokermath1.htm

TT is exactly 3 to 1 favorite (I was close...)

I dont know how you guys figured out the ICM numbers. To be honest, I dont understand what these numbers mean. I tried to search the forum with key word "ICM", but didnt succeed (I am slow with these things, I know).

If someone could link an interesting thread about ICM I would be greatfull.

Also, I am curios if eastbays program agrees with our analysis.

S.J.

[curtains]

ugh its such a sick situation to be in, but I think you have to call.

[curtains]

I dont believe you average 20% of the prize pool by folding. If small stack survives his big blind, you have to survive yours to finish in the money. This is another case of the ICM being mistakenly applied and trusting numbers that I simply don't feel are accurate. The ICM has you at 19.5% of the prize pool and the shortstack at 3% of prize pool, assuming a fold. I think these numbers are flat out wrong
But the point is that once you have 450 and your opp has like 100 but you are paying BB first, the ICM numbers are way out of line, as it would have you as huge favorite over the shortstack whereas you are actually an underdog because youll be allin in one of your blinds, and this is a situation that could occur if the shortstack doubles up on the BB.
Once again I believe the ICM is simply flawed in these situations. If you give 1 chip to the shortstack, it has him as having like .0005 share of the prize pool. This is obviously absurd, since if he survives both his blinds, you will be allin on yours.

[curtains]

btw one note - I thought the hero had 446 and not 456. If blinds don't go up to 200-400 then the hero can still fold through his blinds, and it should have some affect the % of the prize pool you own. However I dont have this information.

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont believe you average 20% of the prize pool by folding. If small stack survives his big blind, you have to survive yours to finish in the money. This is another case of the ICM being mistakenly applied and trusting numbers that I simply don't feel are accurate.

[/ QUOTE ]

Small stack has to survive BOTH his blinds, before I do.

I believe this is a pure math position.



[ QUOTE ]
But the point is that once you have 450 and your opp has like 100 but you are paying BB first, the ICM numbers are way out of line.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if ICM takes position into account, and if not, which adjustments should be made.

This is one of the reasons I posted this hand.

Thanks for taking the time to think about it,
S.J.

[curtains]

Small stack doesnt have to survive both his blinds. His 2nd blind is 150, assuming he wins the first hand he can fold the 2nd hand.

[TheAmp]

You are right.

[curtains]

You can fold your blinds if they stay at 150-300 however, so he will have to win twice (probably actually 3 times in a row since he will be so short after his first victory). This is why looking at the ICM here is just absurd.
If the blinds are 200-400 when it hits you, your % share of prize pool should be signifigantly different.
If blinds are 200-400 before you, I'm pretty confident its a call. If not, Im not 100% sure, I'd still lean towards calling but Im sure I could be wrong.

[curtains]

btw to add fuel to the fire, the ICM's calculations actually have you at 17.5% of the prize pool if folding. This is because you are obviously folding your small blind next hand, so to calculate as 456 is wrong. However its irrelevant, as the numbers are all wrong anyway
Im really quite sure this is a call.

[Gotmilk]

I would call without even thinking twice, before I would listen to a computer calculator.


And if you need a reason to not listen to the computer calculator, run the calculation again, this time with your stack size at 306 instead of 456 because playing this strategy you are signing a contract to give away 150 chips on the next hand anyways--and you'll see your equity of folding is 17.5% instead of 20%. 72% (99 vs 2 random cards) of your 27% pot equity is more than the 17.5% you get by folding. Also, if you call and win you have maneuverablity which means your chips get skill bonus value, whereas if you fold you are in 100% crapshoot mode.

[Gotmilk]

[ QUOTE ]
btw to add fuel to the fire, the ICM's calculations actually have you at 17.5% of the prize pool if folding.

[/ QUOTE ]


how dare you plagiarize what I instant message to you and then post it before me! shame shame shame!

[curtains]

Didnt realize you were going to join the posting! And I didn't want to try to use your WPT championship fame to convince people I was right.

[TheAmp]

Thanks a lot gotmilk.

Your analysis convinced me that my "instinctive" call was correct.

I think there is an important lession to be learned:
Even in "mathematical" positions, judgment proves to be the poker player's biggest asset.

This forum is wonderful.

[curtains]

Unbelievable!! Gotmilk gets all the credit!!

[TheAmp]

[ QUOTE ]

Unbelievable!! Gotmilk gets all the credit!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks a lot curtains for your valuable contribution to this thread !
/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[curtains]

Thanks, now I can sleep in peace /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kamrann]

Wow. I have no idea what this ICM thing is, but I hope all my opponents are using it! Actually, it would explain some people's play. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

You have to call here. For one thing you can't give up the chance to win 1st or 2nd place money just for an increase in the chances of you taking 3rd. Not unless it's almost a guarantee anyway, which it isn't by a long shot.

curtains, I think even if the blinds don't go up and the short stack won his BB, you'd end up all-in on the same hand as him, on your next SB and his BB, and he'd have you covered so you would have to win that one anyway.

[curtains]

Yeah I'm sure it's a call anyway.

[SuitedSixes]

No way is this a call. If there were rules for Bubble-play, rule #1 would be "Don't call and go all-in when there's a guy under 100t." You've got one goal at that point, and that is to finish 3rd.

[curtains]

Based on that logic I suppose you'd want to fold AA too?

[kamrann]

If you're using rules as hard and fast as that you're giving up way too much in general. All these decisions come down to the same basic ideas of EV, taking into account stack sizes, your estimated chances of winning the hand, payouts, blinds and yes, if someone is about to be forced allin blind is an important factor. But you can't just say you should always fold in those cases. You have to weigh up each and every situation and decide what is best. I think this is an easy call. If you fold your chances of getting 3rd are far from certain - basically not much more than the chances of the short stack losing the next hand, which are what, maybe 60% - 65% or thereabouts? And your chances of getting any better than 3rd if you fold are next to zero.

[ChrisV]

I like call, but only if you're SURE SB raises any two. If SB's range is narrower then fold is going to be better here.

Note: Either BB has to survive a 2-on-1 next hand, or he is heads up against you in which case you won't lose your whole 150. That will give you enough to fold your BB next time if you so choose. It all actually gets pretty complicated.

[curtains]

Shortstack will be UTG while we are the SB. We will never be blinds together, so we will almost surely be losing our 150 next hand.

Also I am a giant idiot, as in my previous posts I implied that if the blinds were 150-300 when it got back to us, that we could somehow survive the blinds by folding both times. This is obviously false since we will be down to about 310 chips.

I still think its an easy call.

[rachelwxm]

I think this is a call if you put sb on anytwo (pretty reasonable assumption). After all 99 is 2.6:1 against anytwo and ICM says you need 2.8:1. That did not take into account your sb dead money next hand.

small stack does need to survive two all ins in order to put you all in if you decide to fold. Against two better hands, I think chances are slim anyway.

But I still call.

[curtains]

small stack needs to survive only one allin before you are allin.

[rachelwxm]

[ QUOTE ]
small stack needs to survive only one allin before you are allin.

[/ QUOTE ]
ok I forgot he could fold leaving him with 22 chips. That must be a fiece battle ITM indeed.

[Gotmilk]

[ QUOTE ]


No way is this a call. If there were rules for Bubble-play, rule #1 would be "Don't call and go all-in when there's a guy under 100t." You've got one goal at that point, and that is to finish 3rd.

[/ QUOTE ]

First place is 2.5x 3rd place. You have a great hand, and a much much much much better chance at winning first place by calling. Earlier I said there was too much math being used to decide what to do, and to your suggestion I say there is too much (wrong) instinct and not enough math.