Another top pair no kicker problem

[Rick Nebiolo]

Daniel Zarchan sweated this play at the Commerce on his recent trip and said he might post it but it goes along with the post below so I thought I’d put it up now. Dan’s notes are better than mine but hopefully my memory of the facts are reasonably correct.

I’m in a good, not too aggressive 15/30 holdem game that was only moderately loose IMO (Dan may think it was looser, but players were moving in and out and generally most pots got head up or three-way by the turn).

Anyway, I call about four limpers in the SB for one chip with K7 offsuit.

The flop comes K-8-2 rainbow. I bet and am called by the big blind and three or so limpers.

The turn is a queen (still a rainbow I think). What is my best move and is it close?

Let’s say I checked the turn. The big blind bets and two players call. What is my best move and is it close?

I’ll post a few thoughts tomorrow.

Regards,

Rick

[Gabe]

I think you really need the planets to be lined up right for you to have the best hand here. However, there are some players there who will call with the hopes of picking up a draw on the turn or bottom or middle pair or a weak Kxs. A good player would have raised with a K or an 8 (if he thought you were trying to steal), because of the other players. There’s maybe just enough chance you have the best hand, I guess bet the turn, but with that flop, and that many players, you have to fold to a raise. (You’ll likely see a set.)
It really depends on the players. Usually at the Commerce, I’d bet. At the 15/30 I was in at HPC tonight, I’d just check and fold.
I really don’t like checking and calling. Although I really don’t like betting to gain information, this is a spot where I would.
If you check and call, you’ll have to call, again on the river, especially if the BB, or the last guy bets it. Of course fold to a raise.

IMO you must call the turn bet. There are eight big bets in the pot and you have top pair with no kicker but do have outs. With any luck the river will be a two or seven and the Queen will become your kicker.

[Kevin J]

Rick-

I really don't mind checking this hand against 4 opponents. If your hand IS currently best, there's a good enough chance it will STILL be best on the turn (even if no one bets). For this reason alone, I don't think checking can be too terrible. Checking might also allow you to slip away cheaply when you're beat.

With your scenario on the turn... I'd be inclined to call given the pot odds, especially if this call closes the action. From the bb's perspective, no one behind him figures to have a king, so there's a reasonable chance he'd bet a worse hand.

Against tough players, this could be a rare occasion where checking the flop might have purified the hand more so than betting and then checking. Maybe this was spot for your pattented "stop and go"?

[andyfox]

No one raised pre-flop and no one raised on the flop. This minimizes the chances of an opponent having a K. I'd have bet the turn again.

Once you check and there's a bet and two calls, you can't really love your hand, but with the odds the pot is giving me, I would certainly call.

This is a good example, I think, of why the 15-30 and 30-60 structure are often better games than the 20-40 and 40-80 structure. The sb will often throw in the one extra chip and find himself in a difficult position out of position, guessing as to where he stands. Those who play worse than Rick, which is the vast majority of players, will find themselves losing a lot of money from the sb. The decisions as to whether to bet out, check an call or check and fold are often quite close.

[Clarkmeister]

I have decided that for me checkraising, checkcalling or checkfolding is the correct play with TP/NK vs a large field in the blind. This situation is the exact reason why.

Given that you bet the flop and weren't raised, I would continue betting.

Given that you checked the turn, there was a bet and 2 callers, I probabaly call, but its close. This isn't exaclty a draw intensive board, so even at Commerce there's a decent chance that a bigger King is out. However I think the combined chances of drawing out + having the best hand dictate a call.

But I think checking the flop and making a decision when the action gets back to you would eliminate some of these tough choices.

[Daniel Zarchan]

Rick,

Thanks for posting the hand. I've been busier the last couple weeks than I had anticipated and so didn't get a chance to put it up myself. And actually, the little poker I have played has been 7 card stud (1/2 and 2/4 on paradise)! I suck at it, but maybe one day...

(For what it's worth, I think you were the BB in the hand, but it really makes no difference.)

As you stated, I think that we probably viewed the tenor of the game somewhat differently, you thinking it was a little loose-passive, my thinking it was severely loose-passive. Who knows why we thought the game was playing differently, but that difference I think really colored our thinking about the turn. My opinion was that those players were capable of calling you with absolutely nothing, and so even multiple calls on a drawless flop didn't necessarily mean that you were beat (or being set up for a turn raise). Anyway, I thought the various lines of play on the turn were reasonably close, and my objection wasn't so much to your play as to your thinking that it was pretty clear. I guess I won't say what you did, so that you can put up your own thoughts.

Again, it was great to see you in LA, and your generosity is really impressive and wonderfully genuine. I put up a small post on the other topics forum about a week ago, just saying thanks to yourself and the other 2+2ers I met.

- Dan

I think if you bet on the flop then you have to bet on the turn for value.
1. if you get raise your hand is in the muck
2. if you check then your opponent think you only have an 8 and will try to out draw you with any two over card and dismiss the king.
When the queen hits and you check it means that your 8( in their mind) is beaten and of course they will call with queens. I think calling after a check is a bad idea anyways. Now you have no idea if your king is good or what the others have.
Also if I had a K I would have raise you on the flop. So these people are really passive or have no clue.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Budman,

You wrote: ”With any luck the river will be a two or seven and the Queen will become your kicker.”

If the board pairs the deuce and the queen becomes my kicker then I’m probably playing for a split pot at best. Some friends have already commented that among the fours hands that could be calling the flop and three hands on the turn are A2. How good can this scenario be for me?

~ Rick

Andy,

Does this provide any inspiration for posting that hand I saw where you open raised in the 30 game? Only post it if you feel like it, but I would be curious to hear what exactly you'd be looking for preflop to make the play.

- Dan

[Rick Nebiolo]

With top pair of kings and a rainbow, disconnected board, my flop bet is routine, although some may argue there is too large a field for this bet. The “checkraise a single late player” approach is better when there are draws out IMO (refer to thread below).

Being called in four spots on the flop (and it may have been five) bothered me with a weak holding. There is no draw out there and the table was only moderately loose so there is a good chance I’m going to find out expensively that I’m up against a set or even top pair good kicker. This type of hand often slowplays this type of flop.

I checked the turn. Now the BB bets. This guy was somewhat loose and on a bit of a tear the last hour. I probably would have called him had all others folded. But three callers were not welcome with my hand, even though they added to my “pot odds” when it came back to me at one bet. With this board, the first caller or two could easily hold a set or KQ and hope the other flop players to trail in behind or even raise.

How good was my eight as an out if I’m merely up against top pair, good kicker? First, the weaker type of hands these opponents would call with on the flop would tend to be the “five-outers” such as 87 and A8 rather than “two-outer” underpairs. So there was a good chance that one or two eights were gone. If you assume roughly two 8’s are available, I have about a 22 to 1 shot to improve. The pot is offering about 10 to 1. This is no overlay.

I folded on the turn and didn’t think it was that close. Dan raised his eyebrow. I walked away from the table and we discussed the hand a little. Interestingly (is that presumptuous?), I would have been more likely to call the turn if the BB had bet and there was only one late caller (or the bet come from a late player). Despite the reduced pot odds, the fact that the late caller is far less likely to be strong (than an early caller) would have tilted it toward a call. In addition, if the field is thinned it is far less likely to get jammed on the river.

~ Rick

[andyfox]

The one that gave me inspiration to post that hand (but obviously not enough since I haven't posted as yet) [I believe it's the one where is had 9c-5c?] was Mike L.'s where he raised with 7-5o. I've forgotten some of the details, I'll post it, and you can correct me if your recollection is different.

Glad to hear you enjoyed your trip, enjoyed meeting you.

Regards,
Andy

[Rick Nebiolo]

Kevin,

I'm not even sure if I know when its best to use the "stop and go" and it certainly isn't my idea. But generally I like the stop and go when there are probable draws out there and I get raised by a late opponent and have a better hand than this.

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

Andy,

You wrote: ” No one raised pre-flop and no one raised on the flop. This minimizes the chances of an opponent having a K. I'd have bet the turn again.”

What kind of hands do you think they would call and overcall the flop with in this scenario?

”Once you check and there's a bet and two calls, you can't really love your hand, but with the odds the pot is giving me, I would certainly call.”

The odds are deceiving. They are created by a large field, rather than raises on an earlier round or dead money. This creates problems for mediocre hands like mine

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

Dan,

You wrote: ” My opinion was that those players were capable of calling you with absolutely nothing, and so even multiple calls on a drawless flop didn't necessarily mean that you were beat (or being set up for a turn raise).

I thought possible calling hands include a better but not great king, A7, A2, 87, and dreaded sets or KQ. I thought the bettor was at least 90% likely to have me beat, especially since he bet into several opponents. He won his money the previous hour by making hands, not aggressive betting the last hour.

”Again, it was great to see you in LA, and your generosity is really impressive and wonderfully genuine. I put up a small post on the other topics forum about a week ago, just saying thanks to yourself and the other 2+2ers I met.”

It was good to see you guys. I made a late response to your post mentioned above.

~ Rick

[andyfox]

"What kind of hands do you think they would call and overcall the flop with in this scenario?"

All sorts of crap. A-x. An 8. A deuce. A pair of 4s. As Vince once replied when I asked what he thought so-and-so had to call a bet, "he had money."

"The odds are deceiving. They are created by a large field, rather than raises on an earlier round or dead money. This creates problems for mediocre hands like mine."

A good point. There's a difference between calling one opponent getting odds of X and calling multiple opponents.
No question your hand has problems, but there's still been no raise for 3 rounds and you have top pair and can close the betting.

BTW, what do you think Hero would have done here?

The key thing is not to play a hand with Dan sweating you. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

[Kevin J]

I have to disagree, but I'm sure that's why you posted this hand. Because it's not simple.

Make it a 4 card flop game. The dealer spreads KQ82r. Now put $285 in the center of the table. Are you still willing to fold for a $30 bet (when your call closes the action)?

I'm not crazy about giving up on this $285 or so, without any substantial proof that top pair is no good. The more information, the better our decisions. But betting the flop (and then checking the turn), seems to create an information vaccuum. The turn card easily makes a second pair and some str8 draws. So after you relinquish the lead, it's hard to know why a bettor is betting and the others are calling.

I wouldn't have as big of a problem with checking and folding to similar action on the flop. For one thing, the pot would be smaller making it a less costly mistake if you're wrong. But even then, if my call closed the action you'd have a hard time getting me to fold for one bet. IMO-

Good hand to post!

[Kevin J]

I made a dumb comment. A queen doesn't so easily make second pair, since there aren't many hands containing a queen that could've called your flop bet. Still... I'd want a little more reason to fold top pair in a pot of this size.

[skp]

I think I was in your game when this hand occurred. I hadn't been there long and didn't stay much longer after that. Also, I now don't remember how passive etc. the game was but in most cases, I think you check the turn here and see how things develop. If the guy to your immediate right bets, you may want to play on with a checkraise. If the guy to your left bets and gets a couple of calls, you may be done for. Obviously, you are done for if there is also a raise. If the guy to your immediate left bets and gets no calls, you have a tough decision: On the one hand, his bet into others on the turn indicates strength. On the other hand, he was in prime position to put in a raise on the flop and did not (although that may be understandable if he has a set).